Polls

Fifty-one percent of voters in the battleground state say Obama should not get a second term, a new poll finds.

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Real estate mogul and reality television star Donald Trump moved to second place in a poll of Republican primary voters' preference for their 2012 presidential nominee.

Seventeen percent of GOP primary voters would like to see Trump, the bombastic host of "The Apprentice" on NBC, win the presidential nomination in 2012, according to a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday.

That level of support places Trump in second place in the 2012 field, tied with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who also checked in at 17 percent.

Only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney eclipsed Trump and Huckabee; 21 percent of Republicans would like to see him snag the nomination.

The higher level of support is certainly somewhat of a coup for Trump. His candidacy has been generally regarded by most media outlets as more of a publicity stunt than a serious bid for the White House.

Still, Trump has maintained he's seriously thinking about running and will make a final decision in June.

In the meanwhile, Trump has sent an adviser to Iowa to scout out support in the key state, and he's increased his media profile, using it as of late to voice suspicions about President Obama's birthplace. Trump also spoke earlier this year at CPAC, a traditional cattle call for possible candidates.

Others in the poll trailed Romney, Trump and Huckabee.

Eleven percent of Republicans want former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as their nominee, followed by 10 percent for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, 6 percent for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 5 percent for Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), 3 percent for former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) and 1 percent for Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney enjoy an early advantage among likely Iowa caucus-goers, a poll of Iowa Republicans found Wednesday.

Huckabee would win the Iowa caucuses and Romney would place second, if caucuses including all the potential Republican presidential candidates in the contest were held today, according to a Neighborhood Research survey released Wednesday.

Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), meanwhile, would have an edge in a narrower field of candidates, the poll found.

Twenty-one percent of likely caucus-goers said they would prefer Huckabee, followed by 14 percent for Romney, 9 percent for real estate mogul Donald Trump, 8 percent for Gingrich and 7 percent for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the poll found.

Twelve other candidates registered at 5 percent or below, and 24 percent of respondents were undecided in the first ballot test, which included every possible candidate.

But not all those candidates might run. Huckabee has flirted with a bid, but a number of indicators and quite a bit of insider speculation has suggested he ultimately might not run. Trump's and Palin's intentions are also an enigma.

In a second ballot test, excluding all three of those candidates, Romney was the benefactor.

Twenty-one percent would support Romney in the winnowed-down field, followed by 12 percent for Gingrich, 7 percent for Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and 6 percent for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Forty-one percent of voters in that scenario would be undecided.

The poll, conducted March 29-April 4, has a 5.5 percent margin of error.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has plenty of observers doubting that he'll actually mount another presidential bid next year, but a new analysis from Gallup finds him best positioned with Republican voters among a sizable group of rumored GOP contenders.  

No potential candidate on the Republican side matches the intensity of support that Huckabee garners among GOP voters, according to Gallup's tracking data from the past two weeks.

Using the favorability ratings of the potential contenders, Gallup calculated what it calls a "positive intensity score" for each rumored hopeful, aimed at measuring which candidate elicits the strongest level of support from GOP voters.

Huckabee topped that measure, followed by conservative talk host Herman Cain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.). While Cain and Bachmann scored well in the intensity department, neither are nearly as well known as Huckabee, Romney or Gingrich.  

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) both boast high name recognition, but fall short when it comes to generating as much positive enthusiasm among Republicans as Huckabee does.

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Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney still leads the GOP pack in New Hampshire, but real estate mogul Donald Trump is within striking distance, according to a new poll out Tuesday.

New numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling show Romney leading the group of rumored GOP hopefuls with 27 percent of the vote. Trump comes in a close second at 21 percent.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee come in third with 12 percent of the vote, followed by Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) at 9 percent and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 7.

Pollster Tom Jensen attributes Trump's strong showing to Tea Party activists and "birthers." The poll found that 42 percent of Republican voters surveyed do not believe President Obama was born in the United States. Among that group, Trump tops Romney 22 percent to 21.

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President Obama's job-approval rating among young people has gone up, even as his overall approval rating has hit an all-time low in certain surveys.

A new poll of 18- to 29-year-olds by Harvard University's Institute of Politics (IOP) found 55 percent of so-called Millennials approve of Obama's presidency — a six-point increase over a similar IOP survey in October. His approval rating is even higher among those attending a four-year college, where 60 percent back Obama. That was a nine-point increase from the last survey.

A recent Quinnipiac University survey found Obama's approval rating at just 42 percent, but that survey was of registered voters. Harvard's poll was conducted in online surveys of 3,018 18- to 29-year-old U.S. citizens, and has a margin of error of 2.4 percent. It was in the field from Feb. 11 through March 2.

The findings are good news for Obama, who was propelled into the White House in 2008 with the votes and volunteer hours of millions of young people. Their renewed enthusiasm could help boost his reelection bid.

One other finding that emerged from the survey is that Facebook "statuses" are the second biggest source of news about the presidential race for Millenials. While major national newspapers were the preferred news source for 49 percent of respondents, 36 percent cited Facebook as their top go-to for political coverage.

This comes as campaigns have increasingly sought to boost their social-media presences. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), for instance, recently announced in a video posted on Facebook that he was forming a presidential exploratory committee.

An internal poll from Rep. Shelley Berkley's (D-Nev.) camp shows her with a four-point lead over Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) in a hypothetical 2012 Senate match-up.

The poll, taken by Berkley pollster Mark Mellman, shows her up 42 percent to 38 over Heller, who jumped into the race quickly after Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) announced his retirement earlier this month. 

Berkley has been weighing a Senate run for weeks and searching for a "path to victory" over Heller.

Earlier this month, Berkley told The Ballot Box that she was waiting on numbers from Mellman to see how she would fare in a race against Heller and would make her decision based on whether she sees "a path to victory."

Still, those close to Berkley say she hasn't yet made up her mind on a 2012 Senate run against Heller. 

Berkley indicated in mid-March that while the retirement announcement from Ensign could move up her timetable slightly, she's not in any great rush to declare her 2012 intentions.

In recent conversations with three other rumored Democratic contenders — Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller, Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and State Treasurer Kate Marshall — Berkley said all offered assurances that they will wait on her decision. 

"They all said the exact same thing, 'We're waiting on you, we love you and then we'll make our decision,' " she said.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie performs better in a head-to-head match-up against President Obama in 2012 than most of the rumored field of Republican presidential hopefuls, according to a new poll.

New numbers from Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll show Obama leading Christie by just six percentage points in a hypothetical 2012 match-up — 46 percent to 40.

That's better than former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who trails Obama 54 percent to 34; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who trails 48 percent to 34; and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), who trails the president 52 percent to 37.

The only two rumored GOP hopefuls who outperform Christie: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Obama is in a dead heat with both potential contenders. He's tied with Huckabee at 46 percent and leads Romney by just a point — 44 percent to 43.

The poll surveyed 800 registered voters nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Despite solid poll numbers, Christie has repeatedly denied any interest in running for the presidency next year, musing on more than one occasion that short of suicide, he isn't sure what he could do to convince people he won't run in 2012.

Still, given a GOP field without a clear front-runner and Christie's rock star-like status among national conservatives, many Republicans are still hopeful he could opt for a 2012 bid.

The New Jersey governor made his second trip to Washington in as many months on Wednesday as the headliner for the National Republican Congressional Committee's annual fundraising dinner, which pulled in more than $10 million. The haul was a $3 million improvement over what the NRCC brought in at last year's dinner.

Sen. Bill Nelson's (D-Fla.) approval numbers remain in the danger zone for an incumbent headed into a reelection year, but he still holds solid early leads over his potential Republican challengers.

Nelson's approval stands at just 38 percent, but he leads each of six potential opponents by at least 13 percentage points, according to new numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.

Nelson leads state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, who has already signaled his intention to run, 50 percent to 34 percent. The incumbent leads former Sen. George LeMieux 48 percent to 33 percent and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner 48 percent to 32 percent.

The two Republicans who fared the best against Nelson in the poll are two who have already said they won't run for the seat. Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) decided against jumping into the race last week, but he trailed Nelson by just 13 points — 47 percent to 34 percent.

Former congressman and talk-show host Joe Scarborough also comes within 13 points of Nelson — trailing 45 percent to 32 percent. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) urged Scarborough to consider a Nelson challenge. It's something the NRSC has disputed, claiming Cornyn and Scarborough never spoke about a potential Senate run in Florida.

Scarborough has said he won't be a Senate candidate next year.

The survey polled 500 Florida voters and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

-Updated at 5:48 p.m.

The public's approval of the conservative Tea Party has reached a new low, according to a poll released Wednesday.

A CNN/Opinion Research survey showed that only 32 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, while 47 percent view it unfavorably. Seven percent said they have not heard of the Tea Party, and 14 percent said they have no opinion.

Those numbers are down from their high in April 2010, when favorability outstripped unfavorability 38-36 percent. The public also had a neutral view of the groups heading into the midterm elections — favorability and unfavorability were tied at 37 percent.

Despite the poll, Tea Party activists have been able to wield considerable influence over House GOP freshmen during the debate over spending, with many of the 87-member bloc pushing leadership for greater cuts.

But political observers have questioned whether the Tea Party, a major figure in the 2010 elections, could translate that influence into 2012 and beyond.

Out of the demographic groups polled, non-whites — a group that broke heavily for President Obama in 2008 —see the Tea Party in the worst light. Twenty-one percent said they view the group favorably, compared to 57 percent who have an unfavorable view.

Democrats disapprove of the Tea Party at a greater rate than Republicans approve of it. Seventy-one percent of Democrats see it unfavorably, while 61 percent of Republicans view it favorably.

Independents' opinions (31-48 unfavorable) generally match those of the public at large.

The telephone poll of 1,023 U.S. adults was taken between March 11-13. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.