Polls

President Obama would deliver a shellacking to a generic Republican candidate if 2012's presidential election were held today, a new poll found Wednesday.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters said they would choose to reelect Obama, compared to 35 percent who would prefer an unnamed Republican candidate, while 16 percent were undecided, a Pew Research Center poll found.

That puts Obama at basically the same position as President George W. Bush at a similar point in his presidency, and a stronger standing than President Clinton held in March of 1995.

Those figures could seem discouraging to the crop of Republicans considering a challenge to Obama in 2012, from which a clear front-runner has yet to emerge, according to the same Pew poll.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are locked in a virtual tie for the lead of the field among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the poll found.

Twenty-one percent of those GOP voters would most like to see Romney win the nomination to face off against Obama in 2012, while 20 percent said they'd most like to see Huckabee as the Republican nominee.

Thirteen percent of Republicans would like to see former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin win the nomination, while 11 percent prefer former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.). The rest of the GOP field polled in the single digits, and 15 percent of Republicans said they were undecided.

The poll, conducted March 10-13, has a 3.5 percent margin of error for registered voters and a 5.5 percent margin of error for Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters.

A new survey from Democracy Corps, a group headed by Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg and James Carville, suggests the House is very much in play for Democrats in 2012. 

Democracy Corps polled in 50 Republican-held congressional districts, the vast majority of which voted for President Obama in the 2008 election. GOP freshmen hold 35 of the districts, and the poll found that most remain largely unknown and show clear signs of vulnerability ahead of 2012. 

Democrats must net 25 seats next year to regain control of the House. 

The poll found the Republican incumbents had an average approval rating of just 35 percent across the 50 districts surveyed. Another 38 percent didn't have an opinion on their lawmaker, and the average number of respondents who said they would vote to reelect the GOP incumbent was just 40 percent. 

The conclusion, according to Democracy Corps: "These incumbents are in a weaker position than Democratic incumbents were, even in late 2009, or Republican incumbents were in 2007." 

Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) holds a slight edge over former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz for the Democratic nomination in the race for retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman's (D-Conn.) seat. 

Murphy leads Bysiewicz 40 percent to 38 percent, according to a survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, which was commissioned by Daily Kos.

Another 21 percent of voters said they were undecided. 

The primary is a long way off, but Connecticut Democrats are anticipating a tough fight for the nomination with Murphy and Bysiewicz already sparring over early endorsements. 

Last week, four Democratic members of the state's Congressional delegation — Reps. Joe Courtney, Rosa DeLauro, Jim Himes and John Larson backed Murphy's bid for the nomination. 

Bysiewicz's camp called the endorsements a sign that Murphy is the Washington-establishment pick and highlighted her support from local elected officials across the state.    

The poll shows both Murphy and Bysiewicz easily besting Republican Linda McMahon in hypothetical general election match-ups. But against former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.), both Democrats are less than 50 percent with a much larger pool of undecided voters. 

Neither McMahon nor Simmons have made an official decision on a 2012 run, but both are considering bids.

Mitt Romney continued his recent dominance of the straw poll No. 2 spot this weekend in California.

The former Massachusetts governor finished second behind Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) in balloting at the California Republican Party's spring convention. Sarah Palin finished third. Voting was conducted at a booth operated by the Republican Liberty Caucus of California, a group of libertarian-leaning activists.

Paul and Romney were also the top two finishers at the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll in February.

Meanwhile, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), who addressed the state GOP convention in Sacramento on Saturday, finished below "undecided" in the informal survey, according to the Sacramento Bee. The former chairman of the Republican National Committee took just 2 percent of the vote, though voting was conducted before his speech.

--Updated at 1:35 p.m.

A majority of Americans now say it should be legal for gay and lesbian couples to marry, according to a new poll released Friday.

Fifty-three percent of U.S. adults said that they thought same-sex marriage should be legal, according to an ABC/Washington Post poll. Forty-four percent of Americans still oppose same-sex marriage, and 3 percent had no opinion.

It's the first time in that poll's history that a majority of respondents expressed support for the right of gay and lesbian couples to marry. Support for same-sex marriage reached a low point in 2004, when the ABC/WaPo poll found that 32 percent of registered voters, at that time, supported same-sex marriage.

Since then, support for marriage rights has drifted steadily upward.

President Obama himself has acknowledged that his own views on same-sex marriage are "evolving." Obama has expressed opposition to marriage rights in the past, but appears to have opened the door to supporting them in the future.

The president most recently acted to extend same-sex marriage rights by ordering his Justice Department to stop defending the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), the 1990s law allowing states and the federal government to refuse to recognize same-sex marriages in other states, in court. (House Republican leaders recently voted to order the House general counsel to defend DOMA instead.)

Obama also scored victories for gay rights earlier in his administration, passing a repeal of "Don't ask, don't tell" through Congress and extending benefits to federal workers in same-sex partnerships.

Still, the issue of same-sex marriage remains politically thorny. Democrats in centrist states and districts are often wary of alienating more socially conservative voters on the issue, and Republicans are often quick to oppose it in order to curry favor with social conservatives in the GOP.

The ABC/WaPo poll, conducted March 10-13, has a 3.5 percent margin of error.

A new poll shows Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in better shape heading into 2012 than the first term senator looked at the end of last year. 

Brown, who's expected to be a top Republican target next year, currently leads all of his rumored GOP opponents by at least 15 points, according to numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP). 

Brown leads Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted and comedian Drew Carey by 15 points — 49 percent to 34 percent. Carey was floated as a candidate by a libertarian group earlier this year, but has denied any interest in a Senate run.  

Other rumored contenders trail Brown by larger margins. Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel 48 percent to 32 percent, Rep. Steve LaTourette 48 percent to 30 percent and he leads both Rep. Jim Jordan and Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor by 19 points.      

It marks an improvement for Brown from PPP's numbers taken late last year. In December, Brown wasn't above 43 percent in the ballot test against any of four potential Republican opponents. 

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) may have the support of Maine's Tea Party-backed governor in her reelection bid, but she could still be in for a tough primary battle next year.

New numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) show 58 percent of Maine Republicans prefer a generic "more conservative" alternative to Snowe in 2012. And just 33 percent of Maine Republicans said they will support her.

According to the poll, 58 percent of Republicans in the state think Snowe is too liberal, while another 33 percent don't even think she belongs in the GOP, saying she should be a Democrat. 

Still, neither of the two Republicans who have already announced runs for the seat have made much headway. Businessman Scott D'Amboise and Tea Party activist Andrew Ian Dodge are largely unknown and haven't yet been able to command the sort of national attention that's already focused on a primary challenge to longtime Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.).  

A top union and a top liberal blog announced Tuesday that they'll team up to sponsor polling through the 2012 elections.

Daily Kos and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) said they will join forces to conduct issue and campaign polling in key states and races over the next two years.

The joint poll continues an effort by Daily Kos, a premiere liberal blog founded in 2002 by Markos Moulitsas, a contributor to The Hill, to take its advocacy a step further, and provide raw political information to readers, especially on races and issues of importance to that online community.

"Rather than sit around and have know-nothing pundits and politicians in DC tell us what the American people think, we prefer to ask them directly," Moulitsas said in a statement. "And this partnership will allow us to conduct significantly more polling than any other media organization in the country.”

“We continue to work to ensure our members have their voices heard in the political process and honest, objective polling plays an important role in identifying the issues that concern working families and the politicians that can best advocate for working people,” added SEIU National Political Director Brandon Davis.

The SEIU/Daily Kos poll will use Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic firm that uses automated polling rather than live, over-the-phone survey methods. Moulitsas contracted with PPP in June of 2010 after severing ties with Research 2000, which faced allegations of producing faulty poll results.

Daily Kos, like other liberal blogs, have taken an increasingly active role in advocacy, campaigns, and fundraising. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), for instance, has used Daily Kos as a medium to help raise over $500,000 to support recall efforts against Republican state senators in Wisconsin.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), the chairman of the House Budget Committee, would be the top pick of Republicans in Wisconsin for president in 2012 if he opted for a campaign.

New numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) show Ryan would lead the Republican field in the state with 30 percent of Wisconsin Republicans in support of a Ryan presidential bid.  

He's followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 17 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 12 percent, and former Govs. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin at 9 percent. 

Despite the numbers, Ryan has shown next to no interest in a 2012 presidential bid and isn't expected to throw his hat into the ring next year. 

He's been mentioned as a potential challenger to Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wisc.) next year, as well, and while a Senate race is more likely, few observers expect Ryan to sacrifice his budget chairmanship for a campaign. 

Still, pollster Tom Jensen says Ryan's solid numbers in his home state are worth noting given that he performs better than most of the leading rumored GOP presidential hopefuls do in their home states. 

Aside from Romney, who PPP found with solid support among Republican voters in Massachusetts, Palin, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) can't boast great numbers among Republicans in their home states. 

Without Ryan in the mix, Wisconsin Republicans give the edge to Huckabee, who leads with 23 percent of the vote. He's followed by Gingrich and Palin, who each garner 15 percent. Romney takes 12 percent, while Pawlenty follows with 10 percent of the vote. 

Former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) is likely to face a crowded Republican primary in his bid to return to the Senate in 2012, but he starts in good position to fight off any Tea Party-backed challengers. 

New numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) show Allen is the favorite for the nomination among Virginia Republicans. Allen and two other Republicans have already jumped into the race for retiring Sen. Jim Webb's (D-Va.) seat.  

Along with Allen, Tea Party activist Jamie Radtke and businessman David McCormick will run, with Del. Bob Marshall and Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart also weighing bids.

A full 67 percent of Virginia Republicans say Allen is their top pick, according to the poll. Just 7 percent prefer Marshall, another 4 percent favor Radtke, while McCormick and Stewart each earn 3 percent.