Polls

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) is far and away the front runner among a long list of possible Republican presidential candidates in Southern states, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

The poll, by Winthrop University, found that in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia Huckabee is the preferred candidate to win the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. He won 20 percent of support among Republicans who said he is their first choice for the nomination.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) comes in second with about 11 percent, followed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) with about 10 percent. The other 13 candidates listed in the poll, including former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (a little more than 5 percent) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (about 7 percent), each failed to get above 10 percent of the vote.

Interestingly, the Winthrop poll also found that 39 percent of Republicans hold an unfavorable view of first lady Michelle Obama compared to about 7 percent of Democrats. About 21 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of Democrats say they haven't heard enough about her. The first lady's favorability in the poll is split along party lines, with 68 percent of Democrats holding a favorable view, about 22 percent of Republicans holding a favorable view and 38 percent of Independents having a favorable view.

The poll surveyed 825 responders between Feb. 21 and 27 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.41 percent.

Sarah Palin's favorables have dropped from 71 percent to 65 percent among Republican voters in the key presidential state.

In the latest sign of potential 2012 trouble for Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), a new poll shows Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) deadlocked with the longtime senator among Utah Republicans. 

Chaffetz, who is still weighing a run against Hatch from the right next year, is tied with the senator at 42 percent among GOP voters in the state, according to new numbers from UtahPolicy.com. Another 15 percent remained undecided. 

The poll surveyed 348 registered Republicans and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.  

In a separate question asked of 600 registered voters in the state, the poll found 54 percent who said it was time to elect someone new to the Senate in 2012. Just 31 percent said they would vote to reelect Hatch.   

Last week, a Deseret News poll showed Chaffetz within 10 points of Hatch. While the senator held a healthy lead among those who self-identified as Republicans in that poll, he trailed Chaffetz 51-35 percent among those who identified themselves as "very conservative." 

Should Hatch face a challenge for the GOP nomination next year, the state convention process, which is dominated by more conservative party insiders, will likely prove his toughest obstacle. It was at the convention last cycle that former Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) landed in third place and was unable to advance to a primary. 

If no candidate wins 60 percent or more of state delegates at the convention, the top two convention finishers head to a primary. 

It's still unclear how much Tea Party opposition Hatch could face in 2012. The longtime senator has made it a point to reach out to Tea Party activists in state and nationally, including speaking at a recent Tea Party Express town hall in Washington, D.C. The group, which backed a challenge to Bennett last cycle, has said it would carefully evaluate any challenger to Hatch should one emerge.

Polling data from Gallup shows Obama's popularity dropped by double-digits in a number of key states he won in 2008.

Voters prefer to see Republicans in control of Congress after the 2012 election, a new poll found Tuesday.

Fifty-four percent of likely voters said they would like to see Republicans in control of Congress as a result of the 2012 elections, compared to 39 percent who would prefer Democrats in charge, according to a Newsweek/Daily Beast poll released Tuesday morning.

An additional 13 percent of likely voters said they would prefer to see divided government, while 18 percent were unsure about whom they prefer to see in control of Congress.

The poll suggests that Republicans enjoy an early advantage in their bid to retain control of the House in 2012 and take control of the Senate in next fall's elections. Democrats need at least a couple dozen seats to reclaim the House in that election, while Senate Republicans are hopeful that a favorable electoral map will help them pick up the net gain of four seats they need to retake the Senate. 

It's still worth noting, however, how early it is in the 112th Congress. At this point in the previous Congress, polls suggested that Democrats were likely to add a number of seats to their hefty majorities in the House and Senate.

Fifty-four percent of voters said they prefer the current arrangement in Congress, with Republicans in control of the House and Democrats in control of the Senate and White House, while 23 percent preferred the situation from 2009-11, when Democrats held all the levers of power. Twenty-three percent were unsure.

The poll, conducted Feb. 12-15 among likely voters, has a 3.5 percent margin of error.  

Republicans have a better chance at defeating President Obama if the party nominates a "moderate" candidate, according to a new survey.

The Public Policy Polling survey was the second poll released Wednesday to show Obama tied with a generic Republican nominee if the election were held now.

The PPP survey had the president level at 47 percent with his unnamed challenger, and a Gallup survey had Obama tied at 45 percent with his challenger. The results become more nuanced if respondents are given ideological qualifiers about the GOP nominee.

In the PPP survey, a generic moderate Republican candidate has a 2-point lead over Obama, 46 to 44 percent. But when the 600 registered voters were asked whether they'd back Obama or a Tea Party conservative, the president led by 4 points, 49 to 45 percent.

Overall, Obama leads all his identified potential rivals by at least 3 points.

The PPP survey was conducted Feb. 11-14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

A new Gallup poll found registered voters are split over whether they would vote for President Obama in 2012. 

Fifty-one percent of Republicans who say they're likely primary voters doubt Obama's birthplace.

Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) would hold a commanding lead over Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) in a Republican primary, according to an internal poll from the Heller camp. 

Heller leads Ensign 53 percent to 38 in the survey, conducted late last month by the GOP firm the Tarrance Group. 

Pollster Dave Sackett writes in the memo that Ensign "is so badly damaged that he is already trailing on a ballot test against Dean Heller by 15 points." The poll found just 9 percent of likely Republican voters undecided in a potential Heller-Ensign match-up. 

The release of the numbers is an indication that Heller is moving toward a primary challenge to Ensign, who is still forging ahead with his reelection campaign. Despite the abysmal poll numbers and the desire among national Republicans to have someone else on the ticket next year, Ensign is continuing to ramp up his fundraising efforts.   

Ensign told The Ballot Box last week that the response to his early campaign moves in Nevada has been positive and said he was confident he'll raise enough money to compete. 

"I think most of the money is going to come in in the second quarter, but we're getting it all scheduled, which is a very positive sign," he said. "We are focused on fundraising right now, and doing my job for the people of Nevada trying to help the economy, because it's in dire shape out there."

Still, Heller's internal numbers mirror some of the public polling already conducted on the race, which shows Ensign trailing badly. 

"Strongly paralleling the untenable situation that faced former Gov. Jim Gibbons in 2010, a plurality of likely Republican primary voters in the state of Nevada believe that Sen. Ensign does not deserve reelection and that it is time for a new person," Heller's pollster wrote in the memo, making the argument that Ensign's scandal has left him too damaged to win in 2012.

With self-identified conservatives, Heller blows Ensign away, taking 62 percent of the vote. 

The poll also tested Heller's strength in a crowded primary field, which included potential candidates Sharron Angle, Danny Tarkanian and John Chachis. In a five-way primary race, Heller still led by 16 points.  

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson (R) doesn't have much of a base in his home state, according to a new poll.

A Public Policy Polling survey released on Monday had just 13 percent of New Mexico Republicans supporting Johnson.

Johnson, a successful businessman who served two terms as governor of from 1995-2003, was behind Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The top three Republicans took 20, 17 and 16 percent respectively in the survey of 357 of the state's GOP primary voters conducted Feb. 4-6.

The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5.2 percent.

Johnson, who is perhaps best known as an advocate for the legalization of marijuana, attended the Conservative Political Action Conference last week. He finished tied for third with 6 percent of the vote in the CPAC straw poll.