Polls

Rahm Emanuel may be able to clinch the Chicago mayor's office without heading to a runoff.

The former White House chief of staff has edged up to 44 percent support in a new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll. He needs to break 50 percent in the Feb. 22 mayoral primary in order to avoid a runoff vote in April.

Former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun was in second with 21 percent of the vote, while former Chicago Board of Education President Gery Chico was in third with 16 percent. (The Tribune has a breakdown of the results here.)

The survey of 708 likely voters was conducted Jan. 15-19 and has a error margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.

Emanuel was at 42 percent in another recent survey. His campaign announced on Thursday it had raised $10.6 million as of Dec. 31.

A new poll out Tuesday shows a slew of potential GOP Senate contenders leading several rumored Democratic opponents.  

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) holds double-digit leads over former Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), former state Comptroller John Sharp (D) and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D), according to numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.

Republicans are already scrambling to position themselves for the open-seat Senate contest — a rare opportunity in Texas politics. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) announced last week that she would not run for another term next year. 

Dewhurst, whom GOP insiders in the state say would start the race as the favorite in a GOP primary, leads Edwards 50 percent to 31; Sharp, 49 percent to 31; and Castro, 53 percent to 25. 

Dewhurst is the only rumored Republican candidate who reaches above 50 percent support in hypothetical general-election match-ups. 

Other potential GOP contenders, including Railroad Commissioners Michael Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones and Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, also top every rumored Democratic hopeful, but none of them tops 50 percent. 

The poll did not test former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (R), who was endorsed Monday by former President George H.W. Bush, or former Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R), another rumored contender. 

The early numbers are largely a reflection of name recognition, with Dewhurst being the best-known among the group. 

The poll found just 38 percent of voters have no opinion of Dewhurst. That number is significantly higher for other rumored contenders, ranging from 54 to as high as 72 percent.

The poll surveyed 829 Texas voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. 

Despite underwhelming approval ratings in the state, a new poll out Monday shows both President Obama and Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) in decent shape in New Jersey ahead of 2012. 

Menendez leads six rumored GOP Senate contenders by double digits, according to the latest Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) PublicMind poll.

The closest GOP competitor is the man Menendez defeated in 2006 — Republican state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. Menendez leads Kean 44 percent to 34. 

The Democrat's largest margin comes against Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R). Menendez leads Guadagno 47 percent to 26. 

The poll of 802 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and shows a large percentage of voters undecided in each hypothetical general election match-up. 

While the early polling out of the state shows no obvious Republican threat to Menendez, his approval ratings are lukewarm at best, giving Republicans in the state some hope a strong challenger will emerge ahead of 2012. 

A poll out last week from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found Kean much closer to Menendez in a hypothetical 2012 rematch.

In that poll, Menendez lead Kean by just two points — 41 percent to 39. The Democrat's approval rating stood at just 37 percent.   

The FDU poll also found Obama's approval rating in New Jersey under 50 percent, a measure pollster Peter Woolley sees as a positive given concerns New Jersey voters have over the impact of the healthcare law and the direction of the country.

Gov. Chris Christie's (R-N.J.) approval numbers continue to grow, a Farleigh Dickson University PublicMind poll found Tuesday.

The poll shows 51 percent approve of the governor, while 37 percent disapprove. It is a slight increase from a November poll, which showed a 49 percent approval rating for Christie, compared to a 39 percent disapproval rating.

Despite his general popularity, Christie's approval is divided down partisan lines. The poll found 67 percent of Republicans feel New Jersey is going in the "right direction" under Christie's leadership, while 63 percent of Democrats think it on the "wrong track." Moreover, the poll found 41 percent of Republicans think Christie is doing a good job as governor while about the same percentage of Republicans think he is doing an "only fair" job.

Peter Woolley, the director of the poll, attributed Christie's approval gains to the fact that voters' taxes did not increase this year.

“Voters are focused on finances,” Woolley said. "Voters didn’t get a tax hike at the state level as they did in past crises. The key is whether, or how much, they might get in local property tax hikes later this year or next.”

The poll came out a day before Christie went on a media tour to defend a trip he and his family took to Florida during a blizzard in New Jersey.

Christie is one of a handful of governors who has made the 2012 presidential nomination shortlist. Other Republican governors include Haley Barbour (Miss.), former Gov. Sarah Palin (Alaska.), former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (Minn.).

A rematch between Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and New Jersey state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) in 2012 would be a competitive one, according to a new poll out Wednesday. 

Numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling show Menendez with just a slight edge over Kean in a hypothetical 2012 general election match up. Menendez leads 41 percent to 39 percent. 

In 2006, Menendez easily beat back a challenge from Kean, defeating the Republican by a nine-point margin in what was generally a lousy national environment for Republicans. 

But Menendez's approval numbers are now below 40 percent. The poll found just 37 percent approve of the job the Democrat is doing, while 38 percent disapprove. Independent voters in the state also give Menendez low marks — just 32 percent approve. 

It leaves the door open for a Republican to make a real run at Menendez, but the party needs to find a candidate. Political insiders in the state say Kean, the son of a popular former governor, is mulling another bid ahead of 2012, but Republicans appear to have few other options. 

PPP also found Menendez with a solid lead over another two rumored GOP contenders — TV host Lou Dobbs and the state's newly elected Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno. 

Menendez leads Dobbs 47 percent to 35 percent, while the Democrat holds an even large lead over Guadagno — 45 percent to 30 percent. 

Pollster Tom Jensen points out that while Menendez's numbers suggest he's in real trouble in 2012, "New Jersey is not like most places. [Former Gov.] Jon Corzine persistently had a disapproval number in the upper 50s, far greater than Menendez's 38%, and trailed by double digits in most polls up until the last two or three months of the campaign in 2009." 

Corzine ended up losing to Republican Chris Christie by just four points.

Sixty-one percent of Texans don't want to see Gov. Rick Perry (R) make a run for president in 2012. 

A new poll commissioned by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and a handful of other Texas newspapers found that while Perry's approval rating stands at 50 percent — 73 percent among Republicans — Texans would rather see him remain in the governor's office. 

Perry has repeatedly denied any interest in making a bid for the GOP nomination in 2012, but his name is still being floated in conservative circles. 

Late last year, Perry told the AP that his new book was proof positive he wasn't aiming for the presidency in 2012. The governor said the book, titled Fed Up: Our Fight to Save America From Washington, contains so much anti-Washington rhetoric that it would be a major hurdle in a potential run. 

"I am not interested in going to Washington, D.C., as president, vice president or in anybody's Cabinet," Perry said at the time. 

Perry was elected to his fourth term as governor of Texas this past November. He defeated Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) in a primary before winning the general-election contest over former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

A new poll out Tuesday holds more bad news for Sen. John Ensign's (R-Nev.) 2012 prospects. 

Numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling firm show Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) would easily defeat Ensign in a Republican primary if the senator opted to seek reelection. 

Heller leads Ensign 52 percent to 34 percent in a hypothetical 2012 primary match up. That's a sea change from just three months ago when PPP measured a lead for Ensign over Heller in a potential primary, 45 percent to 37 percent.

The poll also found Heller to be the top choice for 2012 among Republican primary voters in Nevada. Given a choice between seven potential candidates, 30 percent of Nevada Republicans wanted Heller as the nominee, compared to just 20 percent who wanted Ensign. Ensign has not yet announced whether he will seek another term in 2012, but many observers doubt he will run again.

Following Heller and Ensign were Sue Lowden with 12 percent and Danny Tarkanian with 10 percent. Both Republicans ran for the nomination to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in 2010 and lost. Just 9 percent of Nevada Republicans said 2010 Senate nominee Sharron Angle would be their pick to run in 2012.

The poll surveyed 400 GOP primary voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points.

A PPP poll from last week showed Ensign trailing every potential Democratic opponent, including Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.), in hypothetical 2012 matchups. The same poll showed Heller defeating every rumored Democratic candidate. 

Berkley, meanwhile, said Monday she won't announce her 2012 intentions until late spring or early summer. In an interview with The Las Vega Sun's Jon Ralston, Berkley said of last week's poll, "I took it to heart. I saw where the numbers were and before I make a decision, I have to find a path to victory. If I can find that path to victory, I'm all in."

A recent survey shows Mike Huckabee remains the darling of Iowa Republicans.

The former Arkansas governor has been taciturn about whether he plans to run again in 2012 for the GOP presidential nomination, but that hasn't tempered enthusiasm for him in the lead-off caucus state. 

Huckabee, who came out on top in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, remains the front-runner, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling. He took 30 percent of the vote compared to 18 percent for Mitt Romney, who was runner-up in 2008. 

Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 with 34 percent of support from delegates to 25 percent for Romney, who outspent his rival by millions of dollars. 

Sarah Palin was in third in the PPP poll, with 15 percent of the vote, while Newt Gingrich took 13 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul had 6 percent.

Former Minnestoa Gov. Tim Pawlenty had support from only 4 percent of respondents, while 3 percent said they were backing Sen. John Thune (S.D.). Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels was backed by only 1 percent.

PPP, a Democratic-leaning firm, surveyed 494 usual Iowa Republican primary voters from Jan. 7-9. The poll's margin of error was 4.4 percent.

Moreover, the poll showed that Huckabee was the second choice of a plurality of respondents — another good sign if he decides to run again. Should their first-choice candidates fail to become viable at the precinct caucuses, 19 percent said they'd gravitate to Huckabee, 9 percent said Romney, 13 percent said Palin and 12 percent said Gingrich.

Rahm Emanuel continues to lead the Chicago mayoral race, while his nearest rivals compete to join him in the November runoff.

The former White House chief of staff garnered 42 percent of the vote in a new survey commissioned by a branch of the Chicago Teamsters. Former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (D) was in second with 26 percent of the vote, while former Chicago Public Schools official Gery Chico took 10 percent and City Clerk Miguel Del Valle had 7 percent.

The poll was taken Jan. 4-6, according to NBC Chicago.

A December Chicago Tribune/WGN poll had Emanuel leading with 32 percent.

The mayoral primary is set for Feb. 22. It's a non-partisan contest where the top two vote getters advance to a runoff in April.

--This post was updated and corrected on Jan. 18 at 5:22 p.m.

Past polling shows that support for stricter gun-control laws has declined; even after tragedies like the Virginia Tech shootings.