Polls

Potential 2012 Republican presidential primary voters remain torn between Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey.

But voters' second choices, should their favorites opt not to run, offers an interesting glimpse of which pockets of the GOP the candidates must compete for.

-If Gingrich opts not to run Huckabee would pick up 31 percent of his supporters, while 27 percent said they would gravitate to Romney and only 19 percent to Palin.


-If Huckabee stays on the sidelines it helps Palin's chances. She's the second choice of 34 percent of his supporters, while Gingrich and Romney take 19 percent and 17 percent respectively.



-Inversely, if Palin doesn't run, Huckabee benefits. Almost a quarter of Palin supporters said the former Arkansas governor is their second choice, followed by 20 percent who named Gingrich and 12 percent who picked Romney.



-Should Romney decide not to run, it helps Palin. She's the second choice of 27 percent of Romney supporters, Huckabee took 23 percent of Romney's supporters and 14 percent said they would go for Gingrich.

The PPP poll of 400 typical national GOP primary voters was conducted Nov. 19-21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) decided to wage an independent bid for president in 2012, he would end up aiding President Obama's reelection prospects, according to a new poll out Monday. 

Numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling show Bloomberg polling at 11 percent in a hypothetical three-way matchup with Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R). Obama led the way with 44 percent to Romney's 38 percent. Another 7 percent were undecided.

Bloomberg, who flirted with an independent bid in 2008, cut into Romney's support among independents substantially. The mayor had the support of 22 percent of independents, compared to 32 percent who went for Romney. 

Bloomberg also costs Romney support among some Democrats. For the small number of Dems who favored the former governor over Obama, Romney loses half of them with Bloomberg in the race. 

In a two-way matchup between Obama and Romney, the president leads by just a single point — 47 percent to 46 percent. Without Bloomberg in the race, his supporters break for Romney over Obama — 50 percent to 21 percent. 

Bloomberg has repeatedly said he has no intention of running for president two years from now, but that hasn't stopped speculation that the billionaire might change his mind and opt for a self-funded run in 2012. 

The poll also found that just 19 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Bloomberg, compared to 38 percent who have an unfavorable view of the mayor.  

The poll also found Obama leading all other potential GOP 2012 hopefuls, but the president doesn't make it above 50 percent against anyone but former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who trails Obama 51 percent to 42 percent. 

Obama leads former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 48 percent to 45 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 49 percent to 43 percent and Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) 48 percent to 37 percent.

Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel has a strong lead over the crowded field of candidates who want to become the next mayor of Chicago.

Emanuel has the support of 39 percent of likely voters in the Windy City, according to a We Ask America/Chicago Retail Merchants Association poll that was released Wednesday. 

The other top candidates are former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (D-Ill.), who received 12 percent support, former school board president Gerry Chico with 9 percent and Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) with 7 percent. Nineteen percent of likely voters are still undecided.

Voters will head to the polls Feb. 22 to select a successor for longtime Mayor Richard M. Daley (D), who announced in September he will not seek another term. If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held April 5.

The polls shows voters might be putting aside complaints about Emanuel's residency. With the former top White House adviser in the lead, Davis and other opponents have said he does not qualify for the ballot because he has not lived in Chicago for the year before the election. 

Emanuel's campaign has said he never forfeited his Chicago residency while working in Washington.

Outgoing Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) received only 2 percent backing, even though supporters filed a nominating petition on his behalf before Monday's filing deadline. Burris is considering an official bid.

The poll surveyed 2,255 likely voters on the Monday evening following the filing deadline. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

New national numbers out Monday from Quinnipiac University show 49 percent of voters do not believe President Obama deserves election to a second term in 2012. Among self-identified independents, that number drops to just 35 percent. 

Obama is also in a dead heat with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in hypothetical 2012 match-ups. 

The best-case scenario for Obama, according to the poll — a general election matchup with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Obama leads Palin 48 percent to 40 percent.  

Palin is also viewed more negatively than any other potential GOP contender in 2012. Just 36 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of her, while 51 percent hold an unfavorable opinion.

"She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, said of Palin. 

Obama also came out on top in a matchup with Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels — 45 percent to 36 percent.

"The Democratic base remains squarely behind President Barack Obama when it comes to his reelection, but his weakness among independent voters at this point makes his 2012 election prospects uncertain," Brown said. 

Still, some 27 percent of Democratic voters said they're looking for a Democrat to challenge Obama for the nomination two years from now. 

The poll surveyed 2,424 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. 

A poll of midterm voters by C-SPAN shows publishing bills online and allowing television cameras to show the entire House chamber are two of the most popular suggestions to increase congressional accessibility.

When asked what changes would be most useful for a "more responsive and open Congress," the most popular suggestions were having lawmakers use everyday language when talking about legislation, publishing bills online, issuing alerts when major votes come up and allowing TV cameras to show the entire chamber.

A third of the 1,200 midterm voters surveyed by the polling firm Penn Schoen Berland said they watched C-SPAN at some point in the past year, and 69 percent of those viewers said they had watched coverage of the House during that period.

"There’s a clear message to the new House leadership in these national poll findings: accept the digital age," said Penn Schoen principal Robert Green. "The quickest way to rebuild confidence in the institution of Congress, now at an all-time low, is to make it accessible. Let the people read legislation themselves by putting it online."

The public had a mixed reaction to the Republican Party's wins on Election Day, according to a new Pew Poll.

The poll found that only 48 percent said they were happy about the GOP victory, while 35 percent were unhappy. In 1994, when Republicans took back the House, 57 percent said they were happy and 31 percent were unhappy. And in 2006, when Democrats retook the House, 60 percent described themselves as happy, with just 24 percent unhappy.

And there's little optimism that relations between the two parties will improve. Just 22 percent expect relations to get better, while 28 percent say they will get worse and 48 percent say they will stay about the same.

There is a three-way split in opinion on what should be done about extending the George W. Bush-era tax cuts: Thirty-four percent favor keeping all of the tax cuts; 30 percent say the tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed while other reductions stay in place; and 28 percent say all the tax cuts should be repealed.

House Republican Leader John Boehner's (Ohio) name recognition is up slightly. Now 10 percent of people see him as leader of the GOP, compared to the 5 percent who said the same in September. Overall, 51 percent said they don't know who leads the Republican Party.

And there is no clear front-runner for the 2012 Republican nomination for president; former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney all receive about the same level of support. Palin and Huckabee both got 15 percent, while Romney got 13 percent.

Sarah Palin is the most polarizing of the possible 2012 Republican presidential candidates, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee garnered the highest favorability rating, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Also noteworthy: When it came to Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels -- most voters didn't know who they were.

No Republican has formally announced a challenge to President Obama but there are several names in the mix.

Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee, is the best-known and most divisive, according to the poll, which found 46 percent view her favorably, 49 percent unfavorably, and 5 percent don't know enough about her to say.

Here's how the other candidates measured up:

Huckabee: 49 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable, 25 percent had no opinion.

Romney: 46 percent favorable, 31 percent unfavorable with about a quarter having no opinion.

Pawlenty: 28 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable, 59 percent had no opinion.

Barbour: 27 percent favorable, 14 percent favorable, 58 percent had no opinion.

Daniels:  24 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable, 63 percent had no opinion.

Thune: 20 percent favorable, 10 percent unfavorable and had 70 percent no opinion.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Nov. 3-8. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1, 000 adults nationwide and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Nevada Sen. John Ensign (R) is expected to face a difficult primary challenge if he seeks reelection in 2012, but a new poll shows he may not be as vulnerable as some observers believe.

Ensign leads two of his potential primary rivals in head-to-head match-ups surveyed by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm based in North Carolina. Although against Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), Ensign is below 50 percent — a warning sign for an incumbent.

The two-term senator leads Heller 45 to 37 percent. Against Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R), Ensign's lead is 28 points — 55 to 27 percent. Krolicki opted not to run against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) last cycle, presumably because he was contemplating a challenge to Ensign.

Moreover, 64 percent of GOP primary voters in Nevada approve of Ensign's job performance, while only 23 percent disapprove. His approval rating is even higher with conservatives — 71 percent back Ensign's performance.

PPP polled 400 Nevada Republican primary voters Oct. 7-9. The survey has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

Ensign is considered vulnerable, in part, because he's being investigated by the FBI and the Senate Ethics Committee over his efforts to get lobbying work for the embittered husband of his former mistress. Ensign helped Doug Hampton, the husband of Cynthia Hampton, get a job with a lobbying firm, and his parents provided the Hamptons with a payment of nearly $100,000, which they described as a gift.

Ensign has denied any wrongdoing.

New Jersey voters like their governor more than the president, but don't think Christie should run for the White House.

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Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) leads in favorability among likely Republican voters for the 2012 presidential nomination.

A Rasmussen Reports poll showed Palin with an 82 percent favorability rating, compared to 17 percent who view her unfavorably. Fifty percent of likely voters in the 2012 primary elections for the presidential nomination had a very favorable opinion of the former governor, while 8 percent claimed they have a very unfavorable opinion of her.

Former Govs. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) and Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.) trailed Palin with a favorability of 79 percent apiece. Seventeen percent hold unfavorable opinions of the two. Both potential candidates for the 2012 presidency ran in 2008, only to fall short to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who was defeated by then-Sen. Barack Obama.

In 2009, Palin only trailed Romney as the presidential candidate Republicans said they would vote for in the 2012 primaries. But she was also one of two candidates Republicans least hoped would win the party’s nomination, along with Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R).

The three top contenders for the Republican nomination to challenge Obama in 2012 remain tied when likely primary voters were asked which candidate they would vote for if the primaries were held today.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.