Polls

Nevada Sen. John Ensign (R) is expected to face a difficult primary challenge if he seeks reelection in 2012, but a new poll shows he may not be as vulnerable as some observers believe.

Ensign leads two of his potential primary rivals in head-to-head match-ups surveyed by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm based in North Carolina. Although against Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), Ensign is below 50 percent — a warning sign for an incumbent.

The two-term senator leads Heller 45 to 37 percent. Against Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R), Ensign's lead is 28 points — 55 to 27 percent. Krolicki opted not to run against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) last cycle, presumably because he was contemplating a challenge to Ensign.

Moreover, 64 percent of GOP primary voters in Nevada approve of Ensign's job performance, while only 23 percent disapprove. His approval rating is even higher with conservatives — 71 percent back Ensign's performance.

PPP polled 400 Nevada Republican primary voters Oct. 7-9. The survey has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

Ensign is considered vulnerable, in part, because he's being investigated by the FBI and the Senate Ethics Committee over his efforts to get lobbying work for the embittered husband of his former mistress. Ensign helped Doug Hampton, the husband of Cynthia Hampton, get a job with a lobbying firm, and his parents provided the Hamptons with a payment of nearly $100,000, which they described as a gift.

Ensign has denied any wrongdoing.

New Jersey voters like their governor more than the president, but don't think Christie should run for the White House.

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Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) leads in favorability among likely Republican voters for the 2012 presidential nomination.

A Rasmussen Reports poll showed Palin with an 82 percent favorability rating, compared to 17 percent who view her unfavorably. Fifty percent of likely voters in the 2012 primary elections for the presidential nomination had a very favorable opinion of the former governor, while 8 percent claimed they have a very unfavorable opinion of her.

Former Govs. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) and Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.) trailed Palin with a favorability of 79 percent apiece. Seventeen percent hold unfavorable opinions of the two. Both potential candidates for the 2012 presidency ran in 2008, only to fall short to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who was defeated by then-Sen. Barack Obama.

In 2009, Palin only trailed Romney as the presidential candidate Republicans said they would vote for in the 2012 primaries. But she was also one of two candidates Republicans least hoped would win the party’s nomination, along with Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R).

The three top contenders for the Republican nomination to challenge Obama in 2012 remain tied when likely primary voters were asked which candidate they would vote for if the primaries were held today.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

The blue-collar voters who supported Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential run deserted her party in droves on Tuesday, according to a new poll.

Democrats' support from white, non-college-educated male voters dropped 12 percent from 2008, according to a survey Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted Nov. 2-3 for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America's Future.

Only 29 percent of blue-collar men support Democrats in 2010, down from 41 percent last cycle, according to the survey of 1,000 2008 voters, of which 897 voted on Tuesday.

"These are gigantic losses," Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, whose firm conducted the survey, said on a conference call with reporters Friday.

Greenberg said President Obama and the Democratic leadership failed to articulate a clear economic message.

The process surrounding the healthcare bill, which passed in March, reinforced the perception voters' had that the Democrats were spending too much time bickering with the GOP, increasing federal spending and listening to lobbyists instead of average people on major legislation.

According to the survey, Republicans took the lead in May and Democrats weren't able to close the gap before Election Day.

Obama took responsibility for his party’s drubbing during a press conference Wednesday. "It underscores for me that I've got to do a better job," he told reporters.

But Greenberg warned it will take a sustained effort to recapture the blue-collar voters that backed the Republicans' takeover of the House.

Meanwhile, during an interview with a New Zealand TV station, Clinton was asked if the United States was ready for a female president.

"I hope so," she said, according to Fox News. But she was quick to add: "Well, not me. But it will be someone and it is nice coming to countries that have already proven that they can elect women to the highest governing positions that they have in their systems."

Republicans enjoy a wide margin of support from likely voters that could help propel them toward winning a majority in the House, new polls suggested Monday.

A series of final pre-election polls published Monday unanimously reflected an advantage for the GOP going into Tuesday's elections, propelling the party's optimism that it will pick up the net 39 seats it needs to retake control of the House.

Republicans enjoy an unprecedented margin of support in the final USA Today/Gallup poll. Fifty-five percent of likely voters said they would vote for a generic Republican candidate for Congress, compared to 40 percent who support Democrats, and with 5 percent undecided.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters generally prefer a Republican candidate, according to the last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, while 43 percent expressed support for Democrats and 8 percent were undecided.

And 49 percent of likely voters said they support Republicans going into Nov 2., while 45 percent said they'd prefer to back a Democrat, according to Monday's poll by ABC News and The Washington Post.

The polls in part forecast the kind of Republican victories on Tuesday that most political observers have talked about with increasing confidence. Democrats have been working to hold together their House and Senate majorities with furious efforts to bolster turnout in key races, and President Obama spent the weekend stumping for candidates across the country. 

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said that voters would buck the polls on Tuesday, fueled in part by an advantage in early voting.

"The polls are bouncing around," he said Monday on CNN. "Thirty-six hours from now, we'll know. What I believe is that the voters are going to surprise all of these Washington pollsters."

The polls suggest, though, that voters are also frustrated with their own representatives in Congress. While voters express a preference nationally for an unnamed Republican over an unnamed Democrat, half say their own lawmaker doesn't deserve reelection. 

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) said he thought the momentum for the GOP would help his party make major gains in the Senate — where it needs a net pickup of 10 seats to retake the majority — but not enough to win a majority this cycle.

"We're going to come back in a significant way," Cornyn said on NBC's "Today" show. "I think we don't get the majority back but we come awfully close, and we finish the job in 2012."

Fifty-one percent of registered voters in the NBC/WSJ poll said it was time for someone new in their own district, while 37 percent said their own representative deserves reelection. Similarly, 50 percent of registered voters in the ABC/WP survey said they would look around to support a new candidate, while 32 percent said they would vote to send their own representative back to Washington.

Democrats who are hoping to stave off a massive GOP wave might also find it difficult to motivate their supporters to turn out on Tuesday, especially considering that over half of voters expect Republicans to control Congress when all is said and done Tuesday night.

Fifty-one percent of registered voters said in the final CNN/Opinion Research poll that they expect Republicans to control Congress next year, while 36 percent expect Democrats to stay in charge. Just 8 percent said they expect split control of Congress.

The Gallup poll, conducted Oct. 28-31, has a 4 percent margin of error for likely voters. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll was conducted Oct. 28-30 and has a 3.1 percent margin of error. The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted Oct. 25-28 and has a 3 percent margin of error. And the CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted Oct. 27-30, has a 3 percent margin of error.

Updated 7:26 a.m.

The Delaware GOP Senate nominee has nearly halved the lead Democratic rival Chris Coons holds over her in the First State's widely-watched Senate race, a poll released Friday shows.

In a Monmouth University poll, Coons now leads O'Donnell 51-41 percent, whereas two weeks ago, the New Castle County executive led the conservative activist 57-38 percent.

The poll indicates that the Delaware race could have a closer result on Election Day than many elections analysts have predicted over the past few weeks.

The Delaware race drew widespread national attention after O'Donnell upset nine-term centrist Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) in the GOP primary. Before her win, GOP strategists viewed the race for Vice President Joe Biden's old Senate seat as a prime pickup opportunity that could help the party take control of the upper chamber.

But O'Donnell, who has run for Senate twice in the past, was seen as a weaker candidate than Castle. She struggled to get financial assistance from national Republicans, though Senate GOP Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) is expected to campaign for her this weekend. 

"While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O’Donnell was able to shave 9 points off his lead in just two weeks. The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. 

But even with the Monmouth poll, the Real Clear Politics polling average still shows Coons with a 15.8 percent lead on O'Donnell.

The poll was conducted before an anonymous posting on the gossip website Gawker that detailed an alleged sexual encounter O'Donnell had with a man three years ago after she lost her first bid to become senator. The O'Donnell campaign condemned the post as "just another example of the sexism and slander," pointing to criticism from the women's group NOW and some in the media. It also hit at Coons for not condemning the story.

Likely voters' favorability ratings of O'Donnell are still low in the Monmouth poll, but they are improved from two weeks ago. The survey shows that 34 percent of likely voters view the Republican as favorable opposed to 51 percent who say view her unfavorably. Two weeks ago the gap was at 31-58.

She has also made up ground among independent voters: two weeks ago she trailed Coons 51-41 percent in the key voting bloc, but this week the poll shows her leading 47-42 percent.

Monmouth surveyed 1,171 likely voters by phone from Oct. 25-27. The poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

After a brief tightening of Pennsylvania's Senate contest between Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), the Republican has reasserted his lead less than a week ahead of Election Day, according to a recent poll.

A new Franklin & Marshall College poll out Wednesday puts the Republican back on top by 7 percentage points — 43 percent to 36 percent among likely voters. 

Three polls released in the last two weeks showed a narrowing of Toomey's lead. A Rasmussen poll from last week had the Republican up by just 4 points, while a Quinnipiac poll gave Toomey just a 2-point edge and numbers from Public Policy had Sestak up one point.

But the latest numbers are in line with tracking numbers from Muhlenberg College, which put Toomey up 5 points. 

Franklin & Marshall pollster Terry Madonna said that among voters leaning toward casting their vote for Toomey, two-thirds say they oppose President Obama. Additionally, half the likely voters for Sestak say their vote is in support of the president. 

Republican strategists are confident Ohio's open Senate seat will remain in the GOP column.

A new survey by Wilson Research Strategies has Republican Rob Portman leading Democrat Lee Fisher 49 to 38 percent. The poll of 500 likely Ohio voters conducted Oct. 20-21 doesn't leave much hope for Fisher. There are only 8 percent undecided — meaning that if all those voters break his way, Portman still has enough support to win.

When it comes to independents, who make up more than a quarter of the electorate, the Republican has an even larger lead. Fisher trails Portman 29 to 54 percent among independents. 

"Barring unforeseen circumstances, Rob Portman should be the next U.S. Senator from Ohio," Wilson Research Strategies concluded in a polling memo released Monday.

Earlier polls had shown Portman leading by as many as 22 points, but the Republican isn't sitting on his lead. His campaign recently released five versions of a TV ad titled "Future Generations" to air in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Toledo. It's the 10th TV commercial he's released, compared to one for Fisher during the general election.

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) has reclaimed a narrow lead in Pennsylvania's exceedingly close Senate race, according to a poll released Monday.

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College daily tracking poll of the race found Toomey leading Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak 47-42 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

The poll surveyed 437 likely voters in Pennsylvania and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

Sestak made up ground on Toomey in recent weeks in the closely watched contest, but Monday's poll suggests Toomey could be heading off that momentum. Three polls last week showed the Democrat and the Republican running in a dead heat after Toomey had led the race for weeks.

That caused White House senior adviser David Axelrod to say last week the "momentum has shifted" back to the Democrats side, which the Toomey campaign refuted. 

The White House has made the Pennsylvania Senate race a top priority for maintaining the Democrats' majority in the upper chamber in the face of a potential Republican wave.

President Obama two weeks ago headlined a large rally in Philadelphia to mobilize the Democratic base that polls show is trailing Republicans in voter enthusiasm.

A new poll shows Florida Senate hopeful Marco Rubio with a commanding lead in a three-way race as the candidate holds on to support from most Republicans and many independents.

The St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll shows Rubio with a 15 point lead over Gov. Charlie Crist (I).

That breaks down to 41 percent of likely voters backing GOP nominee Rubio, 26 percent for Crist and 20 percent backing Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.). Forty-one percent of independent voters are breaking for Crist, compared to 21 percent for Rubio and 5 percent for Meek.

The telephone survey of 801 registered voters, including 577 likely voters, was conducted Oct. 15-19 by Ipsos for The St. Petersburg Times, Miami Herald, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.

Among Democrats, Meek has 42 percent of likely voters compared to 36 percent for Crist.

Among Republicans, 70 percent back Rubio while just 17 percent go for Crist.