Polls

A poll released Thursday showed the Pennsylvania Senate race is in a dead heat.

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The Speaker's favorability fell to 29 percent, down from 44 percent in 2007.

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Former President Clinton could be helping Democratic candidates with his campaign stops more than President Obama is, a newly released Gallup poll found. 

Gallup recently asked registered voters if a Barack Obama or Bill Clinton campaign appearance on behalf of a candidate in their area would make them more or less likely to vote for that candidate. Among Democrats, Clinton received a net positive rating of 48 percentage points, six points higher than Obama's rating of +42.

But the gap widened among independent voters, who gave Obama a net negative rating of 27 percentage points: only 12 percent said that an Obama campaign stop would make them more likely to vote for the candidate, compared to 39 percent who said it would make them less likely to do so.

Clinton received a much lower net negative rating of 2 percentage points. Twenty-one percent said it would make them more likely to vote for a candidate and 23 percent said they would be less likely to vote for that candidate. 

The Gallup survey comes as Obama and Clinton are both planning to continue campaigning on behalf of candidates around the country two weeks before Election Day. 

Clinton, who was impeached in 1998, has been able to significantly rehabilitate his image since leaving the Oval Office in 2000. A July 2010 poll found that Clinton had eclipsed Obama in popularity. Likewise, Democrats have deployed Clinton, known as a top political strategist and speaker, to help stave off the large losses to their congressional majorities they are expected to endure on Nov. 2. 

Obama has also been very active on the campaign trail this cycle. This week alone, he plans to travel to Oregon, Washington, California, Nevada and Minnesota for events supporting senatorial and gubernatorial candidates as well as for party committee fundraisers. He has also headlined several highly-attended rallies intended to drum up enthusiasm among young voters who largely backed him in 2008.

But some vulnerable Democratic incumbents, such as Reps. Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and Bobby Bright (Ala.), have run against Obama and Democratic leaders in part due to their unpopularity in many swing districts. 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has dismissed criticism from those candidates, saying "I just want them to win."

President Obama's frequent trips this fall to Ohio on behalf of Democratic candidates may not be making a difference, a new poll suggested Tuesday.

A Quinnipiac University survey of voters in the Buckeye State found that most said Obama's stumping on behalf of incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland has had no effect on how they plan to vote.

Fifty-eight percent of likely voters in Ohio said that Obama's campaigning made no difference on how they planned to vote, while 32 percent said the president's efforts made them less likely to support Strickland. Only 9 percent said Obama's campaigning made them more likely to support Strickland for reelection.

The president, along with Vice President Biden and other top administration officials, has made frequent trips to Ohio this fall to campaign on behalf of Strickland, Senate candidate Lee Fisher and a slew of House Democrats who are facing very difficult GOP challenges this fall. The state, which often serves as a bellwether for the nation during presidential cycles, has arguably received more attention from the Obama administration than any other in the 2010 campaign.

Obama was most recently in the state on Sunday with first lady Michelle Obama for a "Moving America Forward" rally at Ohio State University.

But the president's own approval ratings in the state have trended negatively since he won it in the 2008 election, 52 percent to 47.

Fifty-six percent of likely voters in Ohio told the Qunnipiac poll that they disapprove of the way Obama's handling his job, while 40 percent approve.

The poll, conducted Oct. 12-17, has a 2.8 percent margin of error.

Republicans maintained large leads over Democrats among likely voters in a key generic ballot poll released just over two weeks before Election Day.

In both high- and low-turnout models conducted by Gallup, Republicans held double-digit leads over Democrats for the third straight week. 

Republicans lead Democrats 56-39 percent in a low-turnout scenario and 53-42 percent in a high-turnout model, according to Gallup's poll. 

The poll suggests that the GOP is poised to make large inroads on the Democrats' majorities in Congress on Nov. 2. Democrats have claimed that they have made progress in terms of voter enthusiasm over the past few weeks, with President Obama headlining heavily-attended rallies in key states to rally support among young voters.

But Democrats have failed to make up ground overall against Republicans in the poll, which is considered a bellwether of the outcome on Election Day. 

Still, Democrats are planning to put up a stiff effort up until Nov. 2 in order to maintain their majorities. President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are planning to travel to Washington, Nevada, Ohio, Maryland, Oregon, California and Minnesota over the next week to campaign for House, Senate, and gubernatorial candidates. 

Gallup conducted its poll, which has a three percentage point margin of error, between Oct. 7-10 and Oct. 14-17.

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) is pulling away from his Republican challenger, Buffalo-area businessman Carl Paladino, in the race to become the state's next governor, according to a new poll. 

A New York Times survey released Sunday showed Cuomo leading Paladino 59-24 percent among likely voters, one of the largest leads the Democrat has held over the Republican during the widely watched general-election campaign. 

After Paladino upset former Rep. Rick Lazio in the GOP primary, many thought that Cuomo would have an easier path to victory. But several polls released in the days and weeks following Paladino's victory showed him within striking distance of Cuomo, the son of former Gov. Mario Cuomo (a Quinnipiac University survey released Sept. 22 showed him trailing Cuomo by only six). 

But since then, Paladino's campaign has been marked by missteps made by the fiery candidate, which have drawn national attention to the race.

He got into tussle with a reporter at a campaign event, telling him, "I'll take you out." Paladino, who received the backing of Tea Party activists, also found himself in hot water over a controversial remark he made about homosexuals during a speech to Orthodox Jewish rabbis, for which he later apologized. That comment came as he was facing questions about a child he fathered out of wedlock.

Fifty-nine percent of registered voters said Paladino does not have the right personality or temperament to be governor, compared to 73 percent who say Cuomo does.

The Times poll showed that New Yorkers are deeply dissatisfied with the condition of their state's government and economy, but have not taken to Paladino's message of government reform. 

Forty-one percent of the larger sample of registered voters have a favorable view of Cuomo, and 63 percent approve of his job performance as attorney general, despite their general attitude against the state government. Those numbers contrast with the 43 percent who view Paladino unfavorably.

Seventy-nine percent of New Yorkers polled say the state's economy is fairly or very bad, but 27 percent of registered voters said that the the economy would likely get better under Cuomo, compared to 29 percent who said it would get worse under Paladino. 

Still, more voters believe that the economy will remain the same under both potential governors (53 percent for Cuomo, 41 percent for Paladino). 

The registered voters surveyed by the Times who also voted for president in 2008 largely supported then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), 58 percent to 26. 

The Times polled 1,143 New Yorkers, including 943 registered voters between Oct. 10-15. The margin of error is three percentage points for both groups.

Democrat Richard Blumenthal has reasserted his lead over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut's Senate race, according to a new poll out Thursday.

The numbers have seesawed back and forth during the past few weeks, but the former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO now finds herself trailing by an 11-point margin.

New numbers from Quinnipiac University show Blumenthal with the lead — 54 percent to 43 percent. Another 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided, while 7 percent said they intend to vote for someone else.  

The numbers show sizable movement from a Q-poll late last month, which had Blumenthal ahead by just 3 points — 49 percent to 46 percent.

"Fueled by a surge in support from women, Democrats and independents, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has his best poll numbers since the start of the fall campaign,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Director Douglas Schwartz.

The McMahon campaign dismissed the new numbers Thursday, saying the movement toward Blumenthal is likely thanks to recent attack ads hitting McMahon, which the campaign labeled "misleading and untruthful." 

"We have always said this election will be close, and as is typically the case in close elections, polling will fluctuate," McMahon spokesman Ed Patru said in a statement. 

The poll found women supporting Blumenthal 66 percent to 32 percent, while Democrats back him by a commanding 95 percent to 4 percent margin and independents back him by a 49 percent to 44 percent margin. 

The independent vote has flip-flopped since the Sept. 28 poll, when it favored McMahon 49-44 percent.  

As state attorney general, 57 percent to 38 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal and 69 percent to 26 approve of the job he is doing. McMahon’s favorability is split at 46-46.  

First lady Michelle Obama, who has spent time campaigning for Blumenthal, received a 56 percent to 28 percent favorability rating. But 76 percent of likely Connecticut voters say her campaigning won’t impact their decision in November. 

President Obama wins approval from 47 percent of likely voters. 

The poll surveyed 1,119 likely Connecticut voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.  

Republicans are winning eight out of 10 competitive open House seats surveyed in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

The Oct. 2-7 poll, conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, examined the 10 open races in which Republicans hold two of the districts and Democrats control all the others. Six contests fell within the poll’s margin of error. District by district breakdowns are available. 

Voters also indicated they think a viable third party would be good for American politics.

This is the second batch of results from 42 districts The Hill is polling over a four-week period. The first week examined 12 endangered freshman lawmakers. Next week will focus on two-term incumbents, and finally, in the week before the election, the polls will take place in districts of long-term incumbents thought to be in trouble.

Of the 22 races polled so far, likely voters put Republicans ahead in 19, with Democrats ahead in just two, and one tied.

Republican Sharron Angle holds a narrow two-point edge over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), according to a new Fox News/Rasmussen poll out Tuesday.

Angle leads Reid 49 percent to 47 percent. Another 3 percent of likely voters said they intend to vote for another candidate, but the choice of Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian wasn't offered to survey respondents. In a recent CNN/Time poll, Ashjian captured 7 percent of the vote. 

Reflecting a high level of discontent with both Angle and Reid, a full 5 percent of likely voters said they intend to punch "none of the above" on Election Day, which is an actual option on Nevada's ballot.

Both Angle's and Reid's negatives are sky-high. A full 58 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Angle, while 56 percent said the same of Reid. 

Other numbers out Tuesday from Fox News/Rasmussen show Democrat Richard Blumenthal with a 6-point edge over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut's Senate contest, Republican Dino Rossi and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) in a dead heat in Washington state, and Republican Ron Johnson with a 7-point edge over Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.). 

New numbers on Delaware's Senate race still show Tea Party favorite Christine O'Donnell trailing Democrat Chris Coons by a 38 percent to 54 percent margin. 

Republicans maintained their edge over Democrats in the generic ballot as Nov. 2's elections drew nearer.

The GOP kept its healthy lead over Democrats in both high and low turnout scenarios in Gallup's weekly test of likely voters' preference between the two parties.

Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would back an unnamed Republican candidate for Congress in a test of a low-turnout scenario for the crucial midterm elections. Thirty-nine percent in that same model said they would back a Democratic candidate, an increase by one percent over last week.

In Gallup's high-turnout model, Republicans maintain a 53-41 percent advantage among likely voters. That also represented a one percent tick upward in support for Democrats.

The poll suggests that the GOP hasn't lost any steam in its bid to pick up 39-plus seats they need in the House to reclaim the majority. Democrats have claimed that support for Republican candidates has peaked, and that they're primed to make inroads into support for the GOP, though Gallup's weekly effort to track the generic ballot suggests that any Democratic gains have been marginal at best.

The data also comes after a week in which Democrats, led by President Obama, have pivoted to train their sights on groups that have spent on behalf of the GOP in the elections. The administration thinks it can get political traction from its attacks on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads by claiming those groups are spending foreign money on elections without having to disclose their sources of funding.

The latest poll, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 10, has a three percent margin of error for its sample of likely voters.