Five things to watch in pivotal Republican debate in Arizona

The Republican presidential candidates will face off for the 20th time Wednesday night in a debate that could go a long way toward determining the GOP nominee.  

The first debate in nearly a month is a pivotal moment for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, who are deadlocked in national polls and trying to grab the momentum ahead of crucial contests in Arizona and Michigan. 

Here are five things to watch for in Wednesday night's debate:

1. Which Mitt Romney shows up?

Mitt Romney stepped up his debate game in Florida last month, delivering two commanding performances that helped him crush Newt Gingrich in the state’s primary. He clearly anticipated likes of attack from the former Speaker, helping seal a critical victory after his loss in South Carolina.

The confident performances from Romney were a turnaround from some of his earlier debate stumbles, when he made awkward statements that seemed out of touch (the $10,000 bet) or appeared flustered on stage. 

Romney needs to prove to conservative voters that the Florida debates were no fluke, and that he’s ready to go toe-to-toe with President Obama in the fall.

2. How does Santorum handle questions about social issues?

Republicans will be watching Santorum closely to see how deftly he handles questions about issues such as contraception, gay marriage and religion. 

If Santorum comes across as reasonable and measured — especially when confronted with his comment from 2008 about the threat to America from Satan — Republican voters might feel more confident in his candidacy as a viable alternative to Romney.

But if he comes off as overly defensive or is caught off guard, it could deal a devastating blow to his campaign. 

3. Can Romney give social conservatives a reason to switch?

Among all the rivals he has squared off with in the GOP campaign, Romney has had the toughest time attacking Santorum, whose conservative credentials are unquestioned.

One compelling argument that Romney could make — that the former senator is too far to the right to win the general election — is difficult to argue in a Republican primary fight where voters have grave doubts about Romney’s conservative bona fides. 

Romney’s effort to paint Santorum as a Washington insider hasn’t caught on, and he needs to find an effective argument against Santorum— or risk having the race turning into a popularity contest he might not win.

4. How will Gingrich and Paul shape the debate?

Despite sliding towards irrelevancy in national polls, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich could have a major impact Wednesday night.

Gingrich has made it clear that he will hold no punches in attacking Romney, and has been open about his admiration for Santorum. Romney needs to neutralize Gingrich without getting bogged down in a back-and-forth that could derail his debate strategy. 

Santorum, meanwhile, needs to be mindful of Ron Paul, with whom he has engaged in prickly moments on national defense in previous debates. Paul's decision to air anti-Santorum ads in Michigan was a preview of his willingness to go after the former senator. Santorum has to hope that Paul centers his critiques around their differences on foreign policy — where Santorum has the high ground with the Republican electorate — rather than on spending and earmarks.

5. How will the seated format change the pacing?

Unlike previous debates, CNN will place the candidates around a table Wednesday night, a format that fosters a more cordial atmosphere and makes attacks more difficult. It could prevent Romney and Santorum from landing the body blows they might deliver from behind a podium.

Both Romney and Santorum have struggled in the seated format before, but Gingrich and Paul are reliant on crowd participation, often appealing to the audience rather than the moderator or fellow candidates. The GOP contender most cognizant of the format — and how his tone and body language are playing at home — will have an advantage.

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