By Amie Parnes
Allies of Hillary ClintonHillary Rodham ClintonNate Silver: Clinton has 79 percent chance of winning Clinton tops Trump in 2016 battleground states Poll: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck MORE are growing nervous as the Democratic presidential race with Bernie SandersBernie SandersPolitics and the perils of protectionism EXCLUSIVE: Pro-Hillary group takes 0K in banned donations Clinton campaign seeks to shut door on Trump in Pennsylvania MORE tightens ahead of contests in Nevada and South Carolina.
A new CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday found Clinton with a 1-point lead in Nevada, which hosts its caucuses on Saturday. That’s a huge change from the 23-point lead Clinton enjoyed in a late December poll by Gravis.
As recently as mid-January, a poll from NBC, The Wall Street Journal and Marist found Clinton with a 33-point lead in South Carolina.
“I don’t get it. I don’t think anyone expected this race to look like this,” said one former Clinton aide who maintains ties with the campaign. “A big loss in New Hampshire, basically a tie going into Nevada. You have to ask yourself, ‘What’s next?' "
Team Clinton maintains confidence that its lead in South Carolina will hold, but the potential loss in Nevada has put people on edge about a “domino effect” in which states could fall one by one to Sanders as he gains momentum.
“It’s hard to feel confident about South Carolina if you lose Nevada,” the former aide said.
Democratic strategist Jim Manley, a former spokesman Senate Democratic Leader Harry ReidHarry ReidOvernight Finance: Trump threatens NAFTA withdrawal | Senate poised for crucial Puerto Rico vote | Ryan calls for UK trade deal | Senate Dems block Zika funding deal The Trail 2016: 11 hours, 800 pages, 0 changed minds Senate faces critical vote on Puerto Rico MORE (Nev.), said he believes Clinton will ultimately eke out a victory in Nevada because the state is “tailor-made for her" with its large population of minority voters.
Clinton's campaign is banking on support from Hispanics in the state. According to the 2014 U.S. Census, 27.8 percent of the population is Hispanic.
Yet Manley even acknowledged that “folks are giving Sanders a second look” there.
“He’s got some good momentum. There’s no doubt about it,” he said.
Internally, both Hillary and former President Bill ClintonBill ClintonTrump sends GOP pivoting to nowhere Politics and the perils of protectionism Trump on NAFTA: Renegotiate or withdraw MORE have voiced their displeasure with various aspects of the campaign, particularly on messaging and organizing, according to sources. Those involved with the campaign increasingly believe a staff reshuffling will take place, especially if Clinton loses in Nevada.
“The shit will hit the fan,” one longtime friend of the Clintons predicted. “No doubt about it.”
“I think there’s real genuine concern about Bernie’s momentum and that the firewall doesn’t seem to be holding back the fire,” the friend said. “I don’t think people think she isn’t going to win the nomination. But I do think people think it’ll take a lot more money and a lot more time.”
Separate polling data released on Wednesday gave some comfort to the Clintons.
Public Policy Polling surveys found Clinton with leads in 10 of the 12 states that will host contests on March 1, just three days after the South Carolina primary.
Clinton holds a double-digit lead in nine of those states, the surveys indicate.
If those findings are accurate and they hold, Super Tuesday could deliver a huge victory for Clinton raising serious concerns for Sanders.
The fear for the Clintons is that Sanders will follow up his victory in New Hampshire with a win in Nevada and that this could give him momentum in South Carolina.
And if Sanders can win South Carolina, or even significantly narrow the gap, fears of disappearing Clinton leads will grow.
Several Clinton surrogates and associates interviewed on Wednesday said they were worried Sanders could pull out a win in Nevada.
“You don’t want a streak, and with two losses in a row, you’re starting a streak,” said one Democratic strategist familiar with the thinking of the senior officials on the Clinton campaign. “Inside the deep legions of the Clinton campaign, they remember what happened when Barack ObamaBarack ObamaPolitics and the perils of protectionism Trump on NAFTA: Renegotiate or withdraw Reid: Rubio should be sued over missed votes MORE won in a streak. It was over.”
Even a near win for Sanders, would be perceived as a moral victory. And even a small Clinton victory would satisfy Sanders donors enough to keep fueling the campaign.