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In Indiana, a state once key to a Republican majority, chances look less favorable for the party as a gaffe from GOP candidate Richard Mourdock has damped his odds. In Missouri, Rep. Todd Akin (R ) has made up some ground but there are questions as to whether he can recover from his controversial remarks on rape.

And, in Nebraska, Democrat Bob Kerrey suddenly looks capable of mounting a come-from-behind win against Republican Deb FischerDebra (Deb) Strobel FischerGOP senators introduce resolution endorsing ICE The real reason Scott Pruitt is gone: Putting a key voting bloc at risk Ernst, Fischer to square off for leadership post MORE, though he faces an uphill battle in the red-leaning state.

A recent independent poll, the first since September, showed him closing his gap substantially and lagging Fischer by just 3 points. The sudden opening in the race inspired an influx of outside spending, with Crossroads GPS launching a $420,000 ad buy to shore up their bet, while independent group VoteVets Action Fund spent $300,000 on ads attacking Fischer this past week.

Kerrey also rolled out the endorsement of former GOP Sen. Chuck HagelCharles (Chuck) Timothy HagelGOP lambasts Trump over performance in Helsinki Overnight Defense: Latest on historic Korea summit | Trump says 'many people' interested in VA job | Pompeo thinks Trump likely to leave Iran deal Should Mike Pompeo be confirmed? MORE, a revered political figure in the state, as part of a last-minute push for support.

It remains a long-shot — Fischer formerly posted consistent double-digit leads on Kerrey, and Mitt Romney leads President Obama by a similar margin — but Kerrey's mounting an improbable challenge in the final days of the campaign, and The Hill has moved the race from Likely to Lean Republican.

These ratings and projections will be updated throughout the campaign cycle. The full Senate ratings are below. Ratings for the House are available on The Hill’s Ballot Box blog under the Race Rating category.

The Hill's 2012 Race Ratings: Senate

Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Toss-up Lean Republican Likely Republican
HI: OPEN (Akaka)CT: OPEN (Lieberman)AZ: OPEN (Kyl) NE: OPEN (Nelson)
MI: Stabenow (D)FL: Nelson (D)IN: OPEN (Lugar)

MN: Klobuchar (D)MA: Brown (R)MT: Tester (D)
 
NJ: Menendez (D) ME: OPEN (Snowe)**NV: Heller (R)    
WV: Manchin (D)  MO: McCaskill (D)ND: OPEN (Conrad)    
  NM: OPEN (Bingaman)VA: OPEN (Webb)    
  OH: Brown (D)WI: OPEN (Kohl)    
  PA: Casey (D)     
        
         
         
         
*Bold indicates a seat projected to switch parties.
**Former Maine Gov. Angus KingAngus Stanley KingBipartisan bill would bring needed funds to deteriorating National Park Service infrastructure Lawmakers say Trump tariffs are threatening local newspapers Senate adds members to pro-NATO group MORE (I) is expected to caucus with Democrats if elected.