We make five changes in this edition:

-Massa’s shocking retirement leaves another Democratic vacancy in a McCain district. Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) now has a head start on the field, and Republicans should have at least even odds of taking this seat (which went 56-42 for Bush in 2004). Several factors could change this rating again in the near-term, though, including a potentially tough GOP primary with former Rep. Randy Kuhl and whether or not Democrats can land a strong candidate. Massa’s troubles don’t help Democratic efforts to hold this one. UPGRADED to “toss-up."

-Bright released some sterling poll numbers recently that, even when you consider they were from an internal poll, make his first reelection race look a lot more promising. It looks as thought Bright is doing what he needs to do to win a tough district. If Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha RobyMartha Dubina RobyPath to Dem majority lies in well-educated districts Five lawmakers facing tough primary races Trump meeting leaders of video game industry MORE (R) were raising a little more money, this shift would be harder to make. DOWNGRADED to “lean Democratic.”

-Our initial rating on Teague's district was a little aggressive, and an independent survey by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling last week put former Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) up 43-41 over Teague. We still think it's notable that Pearce, unlike other former members, didn't lose reelection in 2008 (he lost a Senate race). But this race is looking more and more like a pure toss-up, and it probably should have been classified as such initially. DOWNGRADED to "toss-up.”

-For Boucher, he finally learned that he will face a reputable GOP opponent. State Del. Morgan GriffithHoward (Morgan) Morgan Griffith25 House Republicans defy leadership in key spending bill vote House passes 'right to try' drug bill House fails to pass 'right to try' bill amid Dem objections MORE, who filed last week, wasn't the GOP's top choice, but he does have a fighting chance in one of the most conservative districts held by a Democrat. Boucher faces a race he hasn't seen in a long time. UPGRADED to "lean Democratic."

-In Sutton's case, she got a moneyed challenger in the form of car dealer Tom Ganley (R), who switched from the state's Senate race. Sutton holds a 57-42 Obama district and doesn't appear to be in any serious trouble, but Ganley may outspend her thanks to his millions (not to mention the fact that Sutton had just $210,000 in the bank at the end of 2009). Ganley still has something to prove as a candidate, though. UPGRADED to "worth watching."

This post was updated to fix incorrect information about the Teague-Pearce poll.