An early spate of Democratic Senate retirements has put Republicans in solid shape to retake the majority in the upper chamber next year.
The first edition of The Hill's 2012 race ratings puts five Democratic-held seats in the toss-up column. Republicans need a net gain of at least three seats to win the Senate.
On the House side, Democrats need to pick up 25 seats to win back the majority and, as a starting point, Dems are targeting 14 of the most Democratic-leaning House seats held by Republican lawmakers.
Among them are freshmen Reps. Allen West (R-Fla.), Robert Dold (R-Ill.), Lou BarlettaLou BarlettaRepublicans rush to help shape Trump’s infrastructure plan Overnight Finance: GOP makes case to fire consumer bureau chief | Republicans rush to shape infrastructure plan | Tax-writers urge Trump to fire IRS chief Trump transition members urge Rice to testify MORE (R-Pa.) and Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.). All occupy districts won by both Obama in 2008 and Sen. John KerryJohn KerryEgypt’s death squads and America's deafening silence With help from US, transformative change in Iran is within reach Ellison comments on Obama criticized as 'a stupid thing to say' MORE (D-Mass.) in 2004; and all begin the cycle in our toss-up category.
The major caveat on the House side is redistricting, which will change the electoral landscape substantially ahead of next year, potentially squeezing out several members and setting up incumbent vs. incumbent match-ups in other states.
The House and Senate lists are sure to be flux with the potential for additional retirements in both chambers and recruiting efforts on the House side largely on hold until new district lines are set, but here's an early look at the 2012 landscape.