Poll: Heitkamp ahead of Berg in ND, but Obama trailing Romney

By Josh Lederman - 11/22/11 07:00 AM ET

Two weeks after entering the Senate race in North Dakota — to the delight of Democrats — former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) is five points ahead of GOP front-runner Rep. Rick Berg, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Democrats are touting the poll as evidence that they stand a solid chance of holding onto the seat that retiring Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) is vacating, even as the other two-thirds of the state's congressional delegation has flipped to Republican control after almost two decades in Democratic hands.

The survey by the Mellman Group, a Democratic pollster, showed Heitkamp taking 47 percent to Berg's 42. Heitkamp does even better among self-identified independent voters, leading Berg by 21 points.

"With Heitkamp already ahead in the horserace and so much more highly regarded than Berg, she is in a very strong position to win this contest," the Mellman Group wrote in a memo to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

North Dakota does not have voter registration, but is considered GOP territory and chose President George W. Bush over Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) by 28 points in 2004.

Republicans remain confident that Berg, a Tea Party-backed fiscal conservative, will clinch Conrad's seat and give them one of four Democratic seats they need to flip to take back control of the Senate, if President Obama is reelected. A poll by Democratic pollster Geoff Garin in August — before Heitkamp entered the race — showed Berg with a four-point lead over a generic Democrat.

Tuesday's poll also revealed some harrowing news for Obama, who trails Mitt Romney by 14 points in North Dakota. While Obama and his allies aren't counting on a win in North Dakota — he lost there to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by eight points in 2008 — Romney's wide margin over Obama is a cause for concern that having Obama's name on the ballot drags down other Democrats.

The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Nov. 12-16 using live telephone interviews. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.