Poll shows tight race for Senate in Arizona

By Josh Lederman - 04/25/12 06:23 PM ET

Former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) could be within striking distance of Rep. Jeff Flake (R) in the race for Arizona's open Senate seat, according to a poll released Wednesday by Carmona's campaign.

Flake leads Carmona 43-39 in the survey by Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Research, giving Flake a margin of just 4 points over the Democratic nominee.

Earlier polls had showed Flake, the GOP front-runner for retiring Sen. Jon Kyl's (R-Ariz.) seat, with a double-digit lead over Carmona.

Carmona runs strongest in Tucson, Ariz., beating Flake 49-33 in the city where Carmona lives and works. The poll also suggested Carmona handily winning Hispanic voters, with a 36-point advantage over Flake.

But while most voters are already familiar with Flake, 78 percent of Arizona voters are unable to identify Carmona, meaning the first-time candidate has a lot of work to do to introduce himself to voters outside of Tucson — especially in voter-rich Phoenix and its suburbs.

Republicans argued Wednesday that Carmona's poll should be treated with caution, because the same pollster released a series of surveys in Louisiana's 2010 Senate race that were overly optimistic about the Democrat's prospects.

"Take their spin today with the big grain of salt that it deserves, because you [will] probably hear it a few more times before Election Day," said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh.

Carmona ran unopposed in the primary after Don Bivens, another Democrat, dropped out. Flake still has a primary challenge from Wil Cardon, a businessman and former Flake supporter who has loaned himself more than $3 million in his bid to win the GOP nomination.

The poll of 500 likely Arizona voters was conducted April 2-9 using live telephone interviews, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Hill rates this race as leaning Republican.