Poll: McCaskill holds single-digit lead over 3 GOP opponents

By Josh Lederman - 05/14/12 08:42 AM ET

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), holds a single-digit lead over all three of her Republican opponents, according to a new poll from a Democratic super-PAC.

McCaskill leads former Missouri state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) 45-36, businessman John Brunner 46-38 and Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) 44-39 in the survey released Monday by Majority PAC and conducted by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, a columnist for The Hill.

But McCaskill fails to break 50 percent against any of her potential challengers, suggesting the weakness of the GOP field could have more to say about McCaskill’s advantage in the race than her own popularity among constituents.

One of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection in November, McCaskill faces an electorate disenchanted by President Obama and a group of conservative super-PACs eager to tie her to the Democratic president. Obama lags two points behind Mitt Romney in Missouri, according to the poll.

Another Democratic poll in January from Public Policy Polling showed McCaskill in a dead heat with her GOP opponents.

"You know the news is bad for McCaskill when she can’t even top 46 percent in a poll paid for by Democrats, conducted by Democrats, and touted by Democrats,” said Lloyd Smith of the Missouri Republican Party, noting that Majority PAC has already spent six figures on ads defending McCaskill.

McCaskill’s lead is even larger — more than 30 points against all of the Republicans — among those who self-identify as moderates, Mellman wrote in a polling memo.

Another bright spot in the poll for McCaskill is that her margin is largest — 9 points — against Steelman, whom polling shows is leading the pack in the Republican primary.

The poll of 600 registered voters was conducted May 8-10 using live telephone interviews and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The Hill rates this race a toss-up.

- This post was updated at 12:16 p.m.