Poll: Hovde surges to narrow lead over Thompson in Wisconsin Senate primary

Businessman Eric Hovde (R) has surged past former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) in the state's crowded Republican Senate primary, according to a new poll from the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling.

Hovde leads Thompson by 31 to 29 percent, with former Rep. Mark Neumann (R-Wis.) pulling 15 percent support and Wisconsin state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald at 9 percent.

Recent polling has shown Hovde gaining traction, but this is the first poll, including Hovde's own, that shows him with a lead over the well-known former governor. Hovde's numbers have been boosted in large part by the more than $3 million he's spent on television advertising — Thompson hasn't been on the air nearly that much, and Neumann's first ad debuted Tuesday.

Thompson had long led in the polls, but has problems with his conservative bona fides: He is on record as having supported a national healthcare plan with an individual mandate, the centerpiece of Democrats' healthcare reform law, and while he opposed the law he worked early on with former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) to craft a bipartisan framework. He also increased public employee pensions during his time as governor.

The primary is just a few weeks away, on Aug. 8. If Hovde can maintain his trajectory, he'll be the odds-on favorite, although if deep-pocketed conservative groups backing Neumann, like the Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund, go on the attack against both Thompson and Hovde the field could once again muddle in a hurry.

The winner of the primary will face Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). PPP's poll shows both Thompson and Hovde in a statistical tie with her.

PPP polled 1,057 Wisconsin voters, with an an oversample of 564 usual Republican primary voters, from July 5-8. The primary poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, while the general election polls' margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.