Thompson's lead dissolves in Wisconsin

Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) has completely wiped away Tommy Thompson’s lead in the Wisconsin Senate race, according to two polls released Wednesday.

A Marquette University Law School poll shows a 20-point swing from last month, with Baldwin leading by 9 percentage points, 50 to 41. Those numbers were reversed in the same poll last month.

A New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac University poll also showed Thompson’s lead had been erased, but found both candidates tied in the race at 47 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

Thompson had consistently led in the race up to this date, including in two released shortly after the Wisconsin primary in August. 

The former Wisconsin governor admitted that a competitive GOP primary took a toll on his campaign. He won by a narrow margin in a three-way race against Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann, leaving him strapped for cash.

Thompson said his focus since the primary has been on raising money after the primary left him “broke,” according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Much of the shift in the Marquette poll came from independents. Baldwin captured 50 percent of independents compared to 37 percent last month. Thompson’s numbers with the group lowered from 47 percent last month to 38 percent.

Both polls showed President Obama leading by single digits at the top of the ticket in the state.

Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette poll, partly attributed the results to a post-convention bounce for Democrats. He also cautioned the poll included a higher number of Democrats. Adjusting for those, Baldwin’s lead would narrow to 5 percent.

“Our September poll makeup is about two points more Democratic and three points less Republican than average, which is within the margin of error,” Franklin said.

Both polls were taken of likely voters. The Marquette poll was conducted between Sept.13-16 with a 4.1 percent margin of error. The Times poll was conducted between Sept. 11-17 and holds a 3 percent margin of error.

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