Poll: Massachusetts special between Brown and Markey a statistical dead heat

Scott Brown (R) has a slight, statistically insignificant lead over Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) in a new poll of the Massachusetts special election that could further complicate his decision on his future plans, as it also reveals voters in his own party would rather see him run for governor.

Brown gets 48 percent support from Massachusetts voters polled by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, while Markey receives 45 percent support. A large majority of those voters who are undecided backed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in November, indicating Markey might have an easier time convincing them to support him in June, when the special election to replace Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) takes place.

Neither Markey nor Brown, however, are the official nominees of their respective parties. Markey is facing a primary challenge from Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), who will announce his candidacy for the seat on Thursday.

Such a primary matchup would be heavily favorable for Markey, however, who has 52 percent support to Lynch's 19 percent among Democratic voters polled. And while 58 percent of Democrats view Markey positively, only 27 percent view Lynch positively, with slightly more viewing him negatively.

And Lynch fares worse than Markey against Brown, lagging the Republican by 9 percentage points in a potential matchup.

Brown has not yet indicated his future political plans, and while he remains the most likely Republican contender, the PPP poll indicates a plurality of Republicans, 48 percent, would prefer he run for governor. Thirty-eight percent would prefer he run for the senate.

The poll was conducted among 763 Massachusetts voters from Jan. 29-30, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points overall, and plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for just Democratic respondents.

---