He would have to give up his powerful position as House Intelligence Committee chairman and a safe House seat to run in a contested Senate primary and tough general election in the slightly Democratic-leaning state.
There have been signs for weeks that Rogers won't mount a bid.
Former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R), a Rogers ally, recently launched her bid for the Senate, a move many took as a sign that he'd indicated to her he wouldn't be in the race.
Rogers also hasn't met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee for some time — and national Republicans have taken to talking up Land more than him when they discuss the race to replace retiring Sen. Carl Levin (R-Mich.).
"Considering his integral role on the Intel Committee, the NRSC — like everyone else in Washington — has no expectation that he will run," said a source familiar with the NRSC's thinking.
"The NRSC hasn't met with him recently, and has been talking to and meeting with other candidates — including Terri Lynn Land, other elected officials, and potential self funders for nearly a month."
The source pointed out that Land polled much closer to Rep. Gary Peters, who is seeking the Senate nod for Democrats, than Rogers did in a recent survey conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.
Rogers told National Journal on Tuesday that his decision would come on Friday.