He would have to give up his powerful position as House Intelligence Committee chairman and a safe House seat to run in a contested Senate primary and tough general election in the slightly Democratic-leaning state.
There have been signs for weeks that Rogers won't mount a bid.
Former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R), a Rogers ally, recently launched her bid for the Senate, a move many took as a sign that he'd indicated to her he wouldn't be in the race.
Rogers also hasn't met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee for some time — and national Republicans have taken to talking up Land more than him when they discuss the race to replace retiring Sen. Carl LevinCarl LevinCarl, Sander Levin rebuke Sanders for tax comments on Panama trade deal Supreme Court: Eye on the prize Congress got it wrong on unjustified corporate tax loopholes MORE (R-Mich.).
"Considering his integral role on the Intel Committee, the NRSC — like everyone else in Washington — has no expectation that he will run," said a source familiar with the NRSC's thinking.
"The NRSC hasn't met with him recently, and has been talking to and meeting with other candidates — including Terri Lynn Land, other elected officials, and potential self funders for nearly a month."
The source pointed out that Land polled much closer to Rep. Gary Peters, who is seeking the Senate nod for Democrats, than Rogers did in a recent survey conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.
Rogers told National Journal on Tuesday that his decision would come on Friday.