Senate races

Democrats have something to worry about in their Florida Senate primary. Real estate tycoon Jeff Greene (D) has leapfrogged Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) and now leads by 10 points. 

Greene has a 33 to 23 percent advantage over Meek, while former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre (D) is at 4 percent in a new poll by Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday.

The only bright spot for Meek was that 35 percent of the 782 likely Democratic primary voters are undecided and 54 percent of those who named a candidate said they could change their mind. The survey was conducted July 22-27.

Meek was leading Greene 29 to 27 percent in a June 10 poll. But Greene has kept up his multi-million dollar ad blitz, and Meek was only able to respond this week with his first TV spot.

"If there was any doubt that enough money can make a political unknown into a frontrunner, the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for governor should lay them to rest," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the university's polling institute, said in a statement.

Meek still has time to turn it around — the primary is Aug. 24 — but Democrats could be looking at a scenario where they have to woo former Republican Charlie Crist into the caucus.

The Hartford Courant editorial board is backing Rob Simmons for the GOP Senate nomination after the former congressman restarted his campaign this week.

The board made its endorsement based on Simmons's "gold-plated public-service resume."

"Simmons is a Vietnam veteran. That would help him in the fall election against Democrat Richard Blumenthal, whose dissembling on his service status has cost him some points in public opinion polls," the board wrote. "Mr. Simmons, further, was a CIA operative, a staff member in the U.S. Senate, a state legislator and a three-term congressman. He knows the issues. He's in the mainstream. He's got an impressive resume."

Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), the board writes, "clearly has leadership skills and business moxie. She has the ability to deftly handle rhetorical fastballs." But it notes she won't "test her capacity to withstand hostile questions in additional debates with her rivals."

It goes on, "To the extent that voters believe — unfairly or not — that the content of her business enterprise reflects her values, it distracts from her campaign message. Likewise, any new whiff of scandal could damage her candidacy."

Regarding investor Peter Schiff (R), the board noted his "bleak predictions and unrealistic prescription are unlikely to attract many voters."

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) indicated Wednesday that he would have a hard time backing his Democratic primary rival Jeff Greene, should Greene defeat him in Florida’s Senate primary.

On a conference call with reporters Wednesday, Meek said “I don’t like to live in the world of hypotheticals,” and labeled Greene “a Republican.”

“Hypothetically — and I do mean hypothetically in a big way — if he was to advance from the Democratic primary then Floridians would be looking at three Republicans debating one another,” Meek said on the call, referencing a potential three-way race between Greene, Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I). 

The billionaire Greene is self-funding his bid and has already spent millions on TV ads. The latest polling numbers in the race have Meek and Greene close, but show a large number of undecided voters. 

Meek led Greene 28 percent to 25 percent, but a full 37 percent of voters were undecided in a recent Public Policy Polling poll.    

Last week, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) indicated that the DSCC would back the self-funding Greene if he won the primary, but may not fully contribute to his cause.

“We always support whoever is our nominee at the end of the day,” he said. “I expect that to be Kendrick Meek. And, you know, until it’s different, we’re with Kendrick Meek and we’re doing everything we can to help him.”

Asked specifically if the DSCC would embrace Greene, Menendez said, “We always support our nominees. Now ‘support’ has all different connotations to it. I don’t spend money everywhere I have a nominee, because I don’t have that much money.”

—J. Taylor Rushing contributed to this post.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) maintains a narrow edge over his Republican challenger Sharron Angle, according to a new Rasmussen poll out Wednesday. 

The poll has Reid ahead of Angle by two points — 45 percent to 43 percent — with 7 percent preferring another candidate and 4 percent still undecided. 

The poll surveyed 750 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.

A large part of the story continues to be the high unfavorable numbers for both candidates. A full 48 percent of respondents said they have a “very unfavorable” view of Reid, while 41 percent said the same about Angle. 

Overall, Rasmussen said 55 percent have at least a somewhat unfavorable opinion of Reid, and 56 percent view Angle at least somewhat unfavorably.

Given the recent polling trend out of the state, Rasmussen shifted the Nevada Senate race from the “toss-up” category to “leans Democratic” Wednesday. 

“While Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is barely ahead of challenger Sharron Angle, the fact that he has the advantages of incumbency and that Barack Obama won the state by 12 percentage points helps tip the balance towards the incumbent,” Rasmussen wrote. 

Ohio Senate candidate Rob Portman (R) went up this week with his third TV ad of the campaign. The latest spot picks up on a theme that was developed during the contentious Democratic Senate primary.

Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) spent months criticizing Lt Gov. Lee Fisher (D) for leaving his post as the Strickland administration’s jobs czar, and now Portman is doing the same.

“Fisher says hold him accountable for his job record,” the announcer says in the new 30-second ad.

A spokeswoman for Portman said it’s a “statewide buy.”

Stevens & Schriefer Group is doing Portman’s TV advertising this cycle.

Fisher’s campaign called the ad a “political smear.”

“Congressman Portman spent 20 years in Washington supporting tax breaks to companies that sent Ohio jobs overseas,” Lynne Bowman, Fisher’s campaign manager, said in a statement. “If Ohio voters want to see the jobs Congressman Portman created after decades in Washington, they will have to go to Mexico, India, and China.”

—Updated at 2:40 p.m.

The on-again, off-again Senate campaign of former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) is apparently back on again less than two weeks before the Aug. 10 primary.

At a debate Tuesday night with businessman Peter Schiff, Simmons said, "I am running for the United States Senate," something he has not said with clarity over the past two weeks despite a recently launched statewide TV ad buy.

Simmons suspended his primary campaign after he lost out on the party's endorsement to former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon in May. McMahon has largely been focusing her fire on state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) since then.

McMahon did not take part in Tuesday's primary debate, leaving the stage to Schiff and Simmons, whose intentions on the race were still unclear prior to the event.

In an interview with The Hill last week, Simmons denied his ad buy signaled a resumption of his primary campaign. Simmons labeled the ads "public service announcements," and said he simply wanted to ensure his supporters knew his name remained on the Aug. 10 ballot.

Simmons had pledged not to seek the nomination if he didn't win the party's endorsement at the state convention.

The McMahon campaign has criticized Simmons's indecision, but has thus far not re-focused any campaign attention on the former congressman.

But if Simmons plans to actively campaign across the state in the final stretch of the primary, McMahon will likely have to pay some attention to him, even though he lacks a staff or any real campaign infrastructure.

The Associated Press reported early Wednesday that Simmons's wife and daughter will handle his schedule for the remainder of the campaign.

Not since the mid-1990s have voters been so concerned about the federal budget deficit, according to polls.

New numbers from Public Policy Polling give New Hampshire Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte (R) just a 3-point lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D).

Ayotte leads Hodes 45 percent to 42 percent. A PPP survey in April gave Ayotte a 7-point lead over Hodes — 47 percent to 40 percent.

Most notably, the poll found a sharp increase in Ayotte’s negatives, jumping 15 points since PPP last polled the race in April. Her favorability now stands at 36-39. 

Pollster Tom Jensen points the finger at former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), who endorsed Ayotte earlier this month. He notes that Granite State centrists have moved away from the Republican since she won Palin’s backing.

Jensen writes: “51% of voters in the state say they’re less likely to back a Palin endorsed candidate to only 26% who say that support would make them more inclined to vote for someone. Among moderates that widens to 65% who say a Palin endorsement would turn them off to 14% who it would make more supportive.”

While Jensen says numbers set for release from PPP Wednesday will show Palin’s support has helped Ayotte in the context of the Republican primary, there’s still a major question as to how much Palin’s backing could hurt in a general election.

Ayotte has been taking fire from all sides during the past few weeks. One of her Republican primary opponents — self-funder Bill Binnie — has spent heavily on TV ads, and Democrat Paul Hodes has already gone after Ayotte on the airways. 

For her part, Ayotte certainly hasn’t run away from Palin’s backing. Her campaign website prominently displays a picture of the former governor on its splash page with the text, “Help Sarah Palin fight to elect a true conservative in New Hampshire.”

A Republican close to the Ayotte campaign downplayed the poll, saying it oversampled Democrats. The source also rebuffed the notion that Palin’s backing is a negative for the campaign, noting that the campaign sought Palin’s endorsement and “is honored to have it.”

Washington GOP Senate candidate Dino Rossi said Tuesday he'd favor repealing both healthcare reform and Wall Street reform.

Rossi, who's challenging top Sen. Patty Murray (D) in this fall's elections, said he'd favor repealing the two signature issues Democrats have made into law this year.

"We need to repeal that bill," Rossi said of healthcare reform on ABC News's "Top Line" webcast.

He also said, when pressed, that Wall Street reform legislation signed into law last week by President Obama should be repealed and replaced with different reforms.

"I think we should," he said of repealing the financial reform package. "I think we should put reforms in that actually protect the public."

Democrats have sought to put pressure on top-tier Senate candidates like Rossi to say whether or not they would look to dismantle some of the reforms in those pieces of legislation. They've made the specter of repeal a key part of their election year argument against many GOP candidates.

Republicans including Rossi have, for their part, steadily maintained that for the legislation they would look to repeal, they would want it replaced with new legislation.

Ohio Senate candidate Lee Fisher (D) continues to shed staff.

He’s already on his third campaign manager, and by the end of the week he’ll have his second press secretary of the campaign.

John Collins, who had been the lieutenant governor’s spokesman, is leaving the campaign to go work for Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Jack Conway, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer.

A Fisher campaign source told the paper that the parting was “mutual and amicable.” Collins had been on the job for the past eight months.

Fisher earlier this month lost his research director.

His latest campaign manager, Lynne Bowman, said Collins’s departure was nothing to worry about.

“Ohioans aren’t the least bit concerned about campaign staffing,” Bowman said.

Collins did not respond to a request for comment.