Senate races

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will handily defeat primary challenger J.D. Hayworth unless there’s a dramatic shift in fortune between now and August, according to a new poll.

McCain gets 64 percent of the test vote compared to only 19 percent for Hayworth in a new Rocky Mountain Poll by the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center. Navy veteran Jim Deakin (R), meanwhile, gets 5 percent, with 12 percent of respondents undecided.

Hayworth’s appeal to Republican primary voters has dropped steadily since April, with his support shrinking from 28 percent to only 19 percent. McCain’s TV ads may have played a part in that drop. The senator has run three TV spots since June 23 slamming the former congressman for being a “huckster.”

With early voting set to start July 29, Hayworth won’t have much time to turn things around. His best opportunity will be this weekend, when the three Republicans debate on Friday in Phoenix and on Saturday in Tucson.

But even a strong debate performance may not be enough to salvage Hayworth’s challenge.

Independents who plan to vote in the GOP Aug. 24 primary overwhelmingly back McCain over Hayworth.

McCain’s only concern is his soft job-approval rating, which could spell trouble in the general election. In the survey 43 percent of Republicans rate McCain’s job performance as “only fair” or as “poor.”

In the overall electorate, 36 percent have a favorable view of McCain, while 22 percent have a poor view.

A debate Wednesday morning between Republican Senate hopefuls Ken Buck and Jane Norton got heated after a Buck donor shouted down Norton from his spot in the audience. 

It happened after Norton brought up a reprimand Buck received during his time in the U.S. Attorney’s office a decade ago. Norton has used it to question Buck’s ethics.

The details from the Denver Post’s Allison Sherry:

The rebuke came after Buck trash talked a case against an Aurora gundealer to defense attorneys before his then-boss U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland filed felony charges for illegally selling cheap guns. Norton has run negative radio ads questioning Buck’s judgement after a Denver Post story outlined what happened.

A woman in the audience asked Norton how could she support Buck, should she lose the primary, if “he’s as bad as your radio ads say he is?”

“Ethics and integrity matter,” Norton said. “Because of Ken’s reckless disregard … that is what the reprimand said … he said it compromised the case. We need to have a discussion about the issue.”

The gundealer, Greg Golyansky, pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor and can no longer sell guns. He is a Buck campaign contributor.

Golyansky, sitting at a front table, jumped out of his seat. “Bull—-! That was a case against me and you’re lying!”

Buck told Golyansky to sit down.

“Sir, you are no longer allowed to sell guns in America,” Norton said.

Golyansky sat down, but continued yelling, “Because of liars like you!”

Buck and Norton are locked in an increasingly nasty primary battle for the Republican nomination for Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D) seat. The primary is Aug. 10.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said Tuesday she is still weighing her options when it comes to a potential bid for Senate in a November special election. But in an interview with The Hill, Capito sounded less like a potential candidate for Senate. 

While she was critical of Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and the decision-making process over the state’s open Senate seat, which she called “contrived,” Capito noted her commitment to serve out her term in the House.  

“That’s a commitment I made to the people of West Virginia,” Rep. Capito said. 

The biggest question for Capito is whether she would be able to run for reelection to the House and be a candidate for Senate in a special election at the same time. Some Republicans in the state have suggested she is reluctant to resign her seat to wage a special election bid against Manchin.

“I think I have a unique position in the [congressional] delegation,” Capito said. “I’m representing a different party and a different gender. And I’m the only one in the delegation reflecting the urgency of job creation.” 

Late Tuesday, Gov. Manchin released a draft of the legislation to amend the state’s election code to allow for a special election this November.

Capito came out in favor of a November special election last week, but has been critical of the way the state’s Democratic leadership has handled the interpretation of the state’s election code. 

If passed, the legislation would allow Manchin to call a special election for this November to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s (D-W.Va.) seat. A primary would be held in either August or September.

Manchin is expected to announce his own intentions for the seat after the special session is complete and after he names an interim Senator Friday.

Meta-politics may have reached a new level — Republicans are using a recent Democratic fundraiser held in Canada to bolster their own fundraising.

“This past weekend, while families and small businesses struggle with lagging job creation across America, numerous Democrat Senate incumbents and hopefuls were in Canada as part of a swanky campaign fundraiser with liberal trial lawyers,” Rob Jesmer, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, wrote in an e-mail to supporters.

Jesmer asked for contributions. “We need the resources to fight back.”

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and at least eight other Democratic Senate candidates were at a reception for the Committee for a Better Future on Sunday in Vancouver, British Columbia. The committee is connected to the American Association for Justice and the National Association of Trial Lawyer Executives, which were holding a convention in the city.

Republicans have been taking full advantage of the optics of the situation.

“This should demonstrate just exactly what we are up against this November,” Jesmer wrote. “Despite more and more American voters rejecting the Democrats’ failed policies their candidates will go anywhere to find funding — including trial lawyers.”

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) announced Wednesday that he raised $1.24 million in the second quarter, besting the totals released by two potential Republican rivals.

Republican Senate candidate Ken Buck reported raising $417,000 in the second quarter, while former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton's (R) camp said she pulled in some $900,000.

Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), who got some last-minute fundraising help from Bill Clinton, has yet to release his numbers.

In its announcement, Bennet's campaign emphasized the more than 20,000 donors who contributed. He did not release a cash-on-hand total. Bennet reported close to $3.5 million banked at the end of March. He's raised $7.44 million to date. Norton and Buck both have close to $600,000 cash on hand.

— Updated at 9:53 a.m.

A new Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday has Rep. Joe Sestak (D) tied with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in the race for Sen. Arlen Specter's (D-Pa.) Senate seat.

Sestak and Toomey both take 43 percent.

Toomey's support among independents has eroded somewhat from Quinnipiac's last poll on the race, in May. Toomey leads independents 44-35. In a May Q-poll, he led 46-30 among independents.

A large number of likely voters are still forming their opinions on the two. While 35 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Toomey, a full 51 percent said they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Sestak is viewed favorably by 31 percent, but 47 percent said they didn't know enough about him.

Toomey holds the early fundraising lead in the race. His campaign announced Tuesday that he raised $3.1 million in the second quarter and has $4.6 million cash on hand.

Sestak pulled in $1.95 million and will report close to $2 million cash on hand. But his campaign said Sestak raised $1.6 million in just four weeks after defeating Sen. Specter in a May primary.

A new Rasmussen poll out Tuesday in the Colorado Senate race shows Republicans Ken Buck and Jane Norton both leading Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) in hypothetical general election match-ups. 

The poll has Buck ahead of Bennet 48 percent to 39 percent in a general election match-up. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton leads Bennet 47 percent to 40 percent. 

With former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff as the Democratic nominee, Buck leads 47 percent to 42 percent. Norton would lead Romanoff by just two percent — 44 to 42. 

Romanoff is challenging Bennet in the Democratic primary, while Buck and Norton are locked in an increasingly negative Republican primary. The primary is Aug. 10.  

Buck also released his second-quarter fundraising numbers Tuesday and his campaign is touting its cash-on-hand number. While Norton out-raised Buck for the quarter, Buck's campaign reported more cash on hand. Norton raised $900,000 during the quarter and reported $600,000 on hand. Buck raised $417,000 during the second quarter, but has $664,000 cash on hand.

Chet Traylor (R) says his last-minute decision to enter the Republican Senate race on Friday was prompted by widespread discontent.

Ohio Senate candidate Lee Fisher (D) got a break this week — literally. Republican rival Rob Portman fractured his collarbone in a cycling accident that slowed down his campaign schedule at a time when Fisher is reeling from a series of unflattering headlines.

Portman was injured Sunday riding his bike in Jackson Hole, Wyo., with his 18-year-old son, Will. The former congressman flew to Wyoming Saturday for a fundraiser. He’s been training for the Pelotonia, a charity bike ride that takes place in August. 

Portman flew home to the Cincinnati area after the injury and tweeted Tuesday morning:

Surgery went well this morning. Collarbone is now titanium-reinforced and stronger than ever. Thanks for all the prayers & well wishes.

He'll be in a sling for a couple of weeks but will soon be back stumping. "He'll be back in northeast Ohio this weekend campaigning," said Jessica Towhey, a Portman spokeswoman.

Fisher, meanwhile, has endured several recent setbacks. His second-quarter fundraising was less than half of his Republican rival’s haul, and Portman now has an 8:1 cash advantage. Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) has yet to endorse Fisher and recently made more sour comments about the Democratic “establishment.”

And finally, there were reports Fisher’s research director resigned last week. A spokesman for his campaign didn’t deny the report, but said in a statement: “Ohioans don’t care about campaign jobs. They care about keeping their own job and the fact that Congressman Portman has spent 20 years in Washington supporting trade policies that shipped Ohio jobs overseas.”

Towhey said Portman still hopes to ride in the August charity event.

—Elise Viebeck contributed to this post.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin on Friday will appoint an interim senator to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd.