Senate races

Wisconsin Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R) maintains a large lead over his primary rival despite allegations he used bribery and coercion to win the state party's endorsement at its May convention.

Johnson leads businessman Dave Westlake 49 percent to 11 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey of 400 GOP primary voters conducted June 26-27. Neither candidate is well known, which Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) must appreciate. More than half of the respondents said they had no opinion of Johnson, while 80 percent were "not sure" about Westlake.

Tea Party activists have recently been griping about how Johnson, who has never before sought public office, came out of nowhere to become the frontrunner for the GOP nomination to face Feingold.

Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul (R) raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, according to the Associated Press.

His campaign did not say how much cash was on hand.

The cash on hand number is significant because Paul's primary win was during the second quarter — on May 18th — and candidates usually unleash a flood of money leading up to that vote, particularly when it was a competitive race, leaving little in the bank for the general election campaign.

Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), is a prolific Internet fundraiser and tapped into his father's online support base to raise funds. His $1.1 million total includes $172,000 he raised online Monday, which was his first Internet fundraiser since he became the Republican nominee.

He raised more than $1.2 million in a series of Internet fundraisers throughout the GOP primary. Paul, a darling of the Tea Party movement, became a national figure after winning the primary because of his controversial comments on the Civil Rights Act.

His second quarter haul also includes money from a fundraiser the National Republican Senatorial Committee held for him in Washington last week.

The second quarter fundraising period ended June 30th. Reports are due to the FEC by July 15th.

Paul faces Democrat Jack Conway in the general election. Conway also had a competitive primary, so his cash on hand numbers will be closely examined.

A new Rasmussen poll out Thursday puts former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) ahead of Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by six points in the race for Senate in Pennsylvania.

Toomey leads with 45 percent of the vote to Sestak's 39, with 11 percent undecided.

The polling in this race has remained fairly static — Rasmussen notes that Toomey's support has remained in the 42-47 percent range in all of its previous polling on the Senate race.

Toomey also has stronger support among Republican voters than Sestak has among Democrats, according to the numbers. A full 81 percent of Republicans say they are backing Toomey, while 70 percent of Democrats say they are behind Sestak.

A PPP survey from mid-June had the race in a 41-41 tie. Those numbers also had Sestak with 70 percent support among Democrats, which marked a 10 percent jump for Sestak from a March survey.

After speculation swirled Wednesday that West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) might revisit succession plans for the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), a Manchin spokesman told the Charleston Gazette the governor has not considered it.

The State Legislature will be in a special session in mid-July, and several lawmakers suggested Wednesday that the governor may put the election issue on the agenda for that session.

But Manchin spokesman Melvin Smith told the Gazette the governor has not held any discussions about doing so:

"The governor told me he's strictly focused on making sure we honor the memory of the late senator," Smith said. "He won't address anything involving this seat until after the memorial services."

Smith's statement seems far from definitive, but West Virginia state Senate President Earl Tomblin also said that Manchin informed him in a phone conversation Wednesday that he has no plans to inject the issue into the special session.

Earlier this week, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant said there would be no special election to fill Byrd's seat until November 2012, at which point two elections would be held — one to fill the roughly five weeks of Byrd's unexpired term and a second for the full six-year term. A Manchin appointee would occupy the seat until 2012.

But in an interview with The Hill late Wednesday, Tennant said while she stands by her interpretation, an official challenge to her decision is certainly within the realm of possibility."When you're dealing with elections it's probably never case closed," she said. "There are a lot of people looking for holes in this declaration I made."

The 30-second campaign ad could become a thing of the past for third-party groups if the Democrats pass campaign finance.

In a last minute appeal for campaign cash Wednesday, Rep. Charlie Melancon's Senate campaign sent out a fundraising email that referenced former Vitter aide Brent Furer. 

"Last week, ABC News reported that David Vitter protected an aide who threatened, stabbed, attacked and held a woman hostage," Melancon campaign manager Bradley Beychok wrote in the email.  

The fundraising appeal also includes a link to a new web video released Wednesday that markedly steps up the Melancon campaign's attack on Vitter over the incident. 

Ahead of Wednesday's second quarter fundraising deadline, the campaign of Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) already announced that it raised more than $1 million for the quarter. 

The latest Rasmussen poll that had Vitter leading Melancon 53 percent to 35 percent. A PPP survey from June 9 had Vitter up 46-37.  

Some lawmakers in West Virginia now say they expect the state legislature to re-visit the succession plan for the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) at a special session planned for next month. 

Earlier this week, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant said there would be no special election to fill Byrd's seat until November 2012, when two elections would be held — one to fill the roughly five weeks of Byrd's unexpired term and a second for the full six-year term. A person appointed by Gov. Joe Manchin III (D) would occupy the seat until 2012.  

Byrd died early Monday morning at the age of 92.

The legislature has a special session scheduled for mid-July to tackle education issues, but in a radio interview Wednesday, Charleston Mayor Danny Jones (D) said he expects Manchin to put the special election issue on the legislature's agenda for that session. 

It would require the governor to issue a proclamation to expand the scope of the legislature's planned special session, which the governor's office has not yet indicated it will do.

The office of Attorney General Darrell McGraw also said Wednesday it was looking into whether the secretary of state's office has the proper interpretation of the law. It also noted that the secretary's office didn't ask for any guidance from the attorney general in the interpretation process.

Tennant told The Hill she spoke with McGraw Wednesday afternoon and apologized for not giving his office a head's up on how her office had decided to interpret the election code.

Tennant said while she is confident in her interpretation, an official challenge to her decision is certainly within the realm of possibility.

"When you're dealing with elections it's probably never case closed," she said. "There are a lot of people looking for holes in this declaration I made."

Troy Berman, executive director of the state GOP, said political momentum in the state is on the side of those who want to re-visit the issue. "This isn't a partisan thing at all," he said. "It's coming from both sides."

A memorial service for Byrd is planned for Friday — neither side expects any definitive word from the governor's office before then.

-Updated at 6:05 p.m.

The White House did not get a heads-up about Bill Clinton's endorsement in the Colorado Senate race.

White House spokesman Bill Burton said there was no advance warning that Clinton would endorse Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary. The Clinton announcement came in the form of an e-mail to Romanoff supporters that went out Tuesday afternoon.

President Barack Obama supports incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and has fundraised for him.

Burton, speaking to reporters on Air Force One en route to Wisconsin, downplayed the former president's decision to break with Obama on the race.

"It sounds to me like just a difference of opinion in a primary," he said.

When asked again about reaction inside the White House, he said: "There is a lot of things that happen in the White House every day. This was just one of those things where, OK, we have a difference of opinion in this primary."

The primary is August 10. The latest numbers in the race, a Denver Post/SurveyUSA poll taken a few weeks ago, had Bennet leading by 17 points.

Sen. Tom Harkin (D) took some veiled jabs at fellow Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) Wednesday. 

"The big money interests are lining up to dump millions upon millions of dollars into Iowa to protect their friends in the Senate, who'll keep things the way they are," Harkin wrote in a fundraising pitch on behalf of Roxanne Conlin, Grassley's Democratic challenger. "Roxanne's not taking their dirty money. Her campaign is fueled by support from people like you and me."

Harkin doesn’t mention Grassley directly, but notes he needs a "partner" in the Senate "as we take on critical issues like the Gulf recovery, reforming Wall Street, and making sure that Iowans can find good paying jobs again."

Grassley is expected to have a tougher reelection race than usual against Conlin, a wealthy trial lawyer.

The five-term incument sent out his own pitch Wednesday, noting that national attention is being paid to this quarter's results.

"A great deal of press attention will be given to how successful we have been compared to my opponent when those numbers are released," Grassley wrote.

He asked his supporters to donate so that he can "continue the fight to secure our borders and oppose amnesty."

After weeks spent on the defensive, Illinois Senate candidate Mark Kirk (R) targeted his Democratic opponent in two new TV ads released Wednesday.

One of the spots, titled "Risky," brings up Democrat Alexi Giannoulias's service in his father's bank and his age – 34. "But what a 34 years it's been,” the announcer says. "At his father's bank, Alexi made tens of millions in risky loans to convicted mobsters. Then the bank collapsed."

In "Stand," the announcer says Giannoulias's "top aide was a long-time BP lobbyist" whereas Kirk "won praise for helping stop BP when it tried to pollute Lake Michigan." The ad tries to bolster Kirk's green credentials after he was passed over for an endorsement this cycle by two key environmental groups.

The ads are Kirk's second move this week as he has fought to regain control of the campaign's narrative. They're airing on broadcast and cable stations in the Chicago media market, and were produced by Larry McCarthy.

Watch the two after the jump.

Read more...