New numbers out Tuesday show Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) leading all of his potential GOP opponents in 2012, with the exception of one: former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.). 

In a hypothetical 2012 Senate contest, the former governor leads Nelson 49 percent to 44, taking close to 30 percent of the Democratic vote from Nelson, according to Democratic-leaning firm, Public Policy Polling. 

The only problem is that Bush hasn't signaled any interest in a 2012 Senate run, and GOP insiders in the state say they have little reason to believe he'll change his mind.

Outgoing Sen. George LeMieux (R-Fla.) and state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) are both likely candidates and have indicated they would step aside should Bush decide to jump into the race. Nelson has yet to officially announce his intentions for 2012.

The poll shows Nelson's top-line approval numbers to be poor, with just 36 percent of voters approving. He gets just 45 percent approval from Democrats in the state. But pollster Tom Jensen said Nelson's strength lies in better-than-average approval numbers among independent voters and Republicans. 

Those numbers help Nelson top every potential contender with the exception of Bush. 

Nelson leads Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) 44 percent to 36; he leads LeMieux 47 percent to 36 percent, and he tops Haridopolos 44 percent to 32 percent.

President Obama could get fewer electoral votes in 2012 based on the newly released census numbers.

In two years, if the president were to win all of the states he won in 2008, and using the numbers from Tuesday's census data, it would translate to six fewer electoral votes for the Democrat. 

The shift of six electoral votes is obviously meaningless in the context of 2008, when Obama won by 192 electoral votes. But in a close contest, as in the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore, it could make for a decisive margin.  

Five of the eight states gaining House seats in Tuesday's census announcement were won by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz. ) in 2008 — Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona and Utah.  

Texas will have four additional electoral votes, shifting from 34 to 38 in 2012, while Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, and Utah are each gaining a single electoral vote. 

Three of the states gaining seats were won by Obama in '08 — Florida, Nevada and Washington.

But of the 10 states that are losing House seats, Obama won eight in 2008.

Democrats pushed back quickly Tuesday on the new apportionment numbers, arguing they are far from a disaster for the party's prospects in the House or nationally in 2012.

They point to significant growth in the populations of traditional Democratic constituencies, particularly in Texas, which will gain four seats.

The new Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said the release of Census data and Congressional apportionment numbers are far from a disaster for Democrats. 

"Today's release of U.S. Census data pours cold water on Republican's hype that redistricting is a disaster for Democrats," Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) said in a statement Tuesday. “Democratic communities and constituencies have grown in size in states like Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Washington. In states that will lose a seat, the number of Republicans who will be competing with each other creates opportunities for House Democrats.”

In all, 12 House seats shifted.

The biggest gain, as expected, was the state of Texas, which will have four new House seats. The only other state netting more than one additional seat is Florida, which was awarded two new seats Tuesday.

The biggest losers this round are the presidential battleground state of Ohio and heavily Democratic New York — both of which will lose two seats.

Another eight states will lose one seat — Illinois, New Jersey, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Missouri and Massachusetts.

Six states are gaining just a single seat — Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

Of the states losing seats, President Obama won eight in 2008.

Still, Democrats argue the final numbers are actually better than expected for the party. They point to Minnesota keeping all of its eight House seats and a gain of two in Florida — both states which Obama won in 2008. 

Strategists also point out it's GOP House members who could be on the chopping block in states like New York and Ohio, which will both lose two seats.

Israel said Tuesday that Democrats are "prepared, organized and ready" for the next stage of the redistricting process and will "fight any attempts to disenfranchise voters." 

The messiest battles could be concentrated in Texas once again. Israel fired a warning shot in his statement Tuesday, vowing the Democrats will never again "allow Republicans to be 'Tom DeLayed' and illegally game redistricting for political advantage."

In total, 12 House seats shifted, and that could prove a boon to the GOP as the redistricting process begins.

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Already, Tea Party targets, senators like Scott Brown and Dick Lugar, are being criticized for their support of the treaty.

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White House senior adviser David Axelrod expressed confidence Monday that President Obama would be able to swat away a potential primary challenger in 2012.

Axelrod — who will return to Chicago early next year to help coordinate Obama's reelection campaign — told Newsweek that the president's support among rank-and-file Democrats remains high despite several clashes the White House has had with the liberal base.

"We’ll see what happens as time rolls on," Axelrod said when asked about the possibility of a primary. "There may be segments of our party that are unhappy about various things, but rank-and-file Democrats support this president. And rank-and-file Democrats are going to make the decision in 2012."

Axelrod's comments show that Obama's team is at least preparing for the possibility of a primary challenge from a disgruntled Democrat.

Liberals have criticized the White House for allowing Congress to eliminate the public health insurance option from their sweeping reform law and for pushing a tax compromise that extends all the Bush tax cuts for two years, including those for the wealthy, sparking talk that a liberal politician could challenge the president in 2012.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs in August encapsulated the frustration the administration sometimes feels with its supporters when he lashed out against the "professional left." And during a press conference defending the tax deal this month, the president slammed his liberal critics for being "sanctimonious" in their opposition to the tax deal.

But so far, politicians who could challenge Obama have not taken the bait. Liberal Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), who was defeated in November, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) have both said they will not run against Obama, as have consumer advocate Ralph Nader and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean.

Centrist Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), who has criticized the Obama White House, has also ruled out a run for president in 2012.

In fact, one of the only people to say he is contemplating a campaign against Obama is former Sen. Mike Gravel (D-Alaska), a long-shot candidate who ran in 2008.

Axelrod said that polling bolsters his confidence in Obama's chances of surviving a potential primary challenge.

"There was a public poll out recently that said the president had an 80 percent approval rating among Democrats and virtually no negatives," he said. "That’s a pretty good place to start your reelection campaign."

Quinnipiac University poll shows more people disapprove than approve of Christie's governing style.

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Retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) said Monday he has no plans to re-enter politics in any capacity in the short term.

The second-term senator and son of former Sen. Birch Bayh (D-Ind.) said he plans to work in the private sector "for a few years."

"I don't have political plans right now. I'm looking forward to being in the private sector for a few years," he said at a South Bend farewell tour event, according to WNDU-TV. "I'm looking forward to making sure my kids graduate from high school well, and is [sic] suspect I’ll look to re-enter public service in some capacity, but there are a lot of ways to do that other than running for political office."

Bayh earlier this month ruled out a run for his former post as governor, a move many expected him to make following his decision to retire in February. The centrist has also swatted away talk that he could launch a primary challenge to President Obama in 2012. 

But Bayh's remarks give more clarity to the plans of the 55-year-old official, whom many believe could still make a political comeback. The senator would not rule out a future run for public office in a separate interview with the Indianapolis Star on Monday.

"Somewhere between infinity and zero. How's that for keeping my options open?" Bayh said after being asked about the changes of him running for office sometime in the next decade.

"Look, obviously the fact that I chose not to run for re-election makes that less likely. But look at our senator-elect: After 12 years in the private sector, he decided to come back and run. ... That's a long way of saying, I don't know. It is known to happen," he added. "But I don't know what kind of possibility to attach to that."

He also said a run for president down the road is highly unlikely.

"It was possible at one point that the stars might align in the right way. But they didn't," he said. "And I think it's better to be realistic. There are people who just feel they can't go to their graves contented unless they've run for president. I'm not one of those people."

Bayh said he is not "planning" on becoming a lobbyist after he is legally permitted to do so and also said he has not decided what to do with the $11 million left in his campaign war chest.

Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) is the latest Democrat to express an interest in running for Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-Conn.) seat in 2012. 

Murphy told the Danbury News Times Monday that he's considering a Senate bid, but offered no timetable for a decision. 

"It's something I'll be talking about with my family and the people I trust,'' said Murphy, who called the upper chamber a "pretty broken place" that might benefit from a new voice. 

Last week, Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) said he's also considering a Lieberman challenge, noting he would make a decision after the lame-duck session comes to a close.

Lieberman has still not indicated whether he intends to run for another term in 2012, and his future continues to be the subject of intense speculation on Capitol Hill. 

The independent recently told The Ballot Box that he's planning to weigh his options over the upcoming recess and that he's likely to sit down soon with the new head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.).

Lieberman lost a Democratic primary to Ned Lamont in 2006 thanks to anger from the left over his support of the Iraq war, and he was abandoned by his party establishment when he chose to run as an independent. 

The rift only grew larger during the 2008 cycle when Lieberman endorsed and campaigned for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). 

While many liberals still have Lieberman in their sights, the independent led the successful charge in the Senate to repeal "Don't ask, don't tell." It gives Lieberman something positive to pitch the Democratic base and could dissuade more high-profile Democrats from jumping into the race should he decide to run again.

Lieberman has said he expects to make his decision early next year.