TOP OF THE BALLOT SUPER TUESDAY: It’s the first big primary day of 2010; Democrats are getting desperate in Hawaii; and Mitch McConnell tells us what we already knew – that he’s backing Trey Grayson.

It’s primary day!

Actual voting will take place today in three key states – Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio – so check out my rundown of what to watch for in today’s primaries.

The big question will be whether Cal Cunningham can force a runoff with North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall in that state’s Democratic Senate primary. If Marshall wins, the race against Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) becomes less attractive to national Democrats. She needs 40 percent-plus-one to win outright.

The next biggest questions are how big former Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.) and Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) win in their Senate primaries. Beyond that, we’re watching Reps. Dan Burton (R-Ind.) and Mark Souder (R-Ind.) to see if they struggle with primary challenges.

Keep an eye on it all tonight by checking the Ballot Box regularly.

Dem leaders make their Case

We’re getting into desperation time for Democrats in the Hawaii special election, with top Democratic officials now leaking a poll showing former Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) in a much better position than state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D) in the three-way race. Ben Smith has the poll.

The takeaway here is that Democrats should unite behind Case in the name of keeping the seat. Both Democrats trail Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R), but their combined vote total is 54 percent (34 percent Case, 20 percent Hanabusa), while Djou is at 36 percent.

This is where the vote-by-mail nature of the race is REALLY hurting Democrats. Even if Hanabusa can be pushed from the race eventually, she is already accumulating votes that Case will never be able to get back. And because there is no in-person voting on Election Day, the mail-in votes mean so much more.

All of that said, it’s hard to see a woman with the support of the state’s two senators simply stepping aside. And even if she doesn’t think she can win, she may have reason to stay in the race. By Djou winning the seat, she improves her chances of grabbing the seat back in November, after Democrats hold a proper primary. That process would favor the more left-leaning Hanabusa.

McConnell endorses Grayson

One of the worst-kept secrets on the 2010 campaign trail has gone official: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is backing Trey Grayson in this month’s Kentucky GOP Senate primary.

Grayson’s campaign announced McConnell’s endorsement this morning, with the state’s senior senator also appearing in a new TV ad for the Kentucky Secretary of State.

Any illusions that McConnell and the GOP leadership are neutral in this race are now gone. Grayson is seeking a bump – any bump – and making McConnell’s support official appears to be the latest effort.

The fact that McConnell is the state’s other GOP senator may help Grayson in his race against the frontrunning Rand Paul, but the fact that McConnell is a GOP leader may only reinforce the insider-versus-outsider plot that exists in this primary.

Other updates

-Rep. Mike McMahon (D-N.Y.) has released a poll showing him leading both of his potential GOP opponents by around 30 points.

-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio announced Monday that he would not seek the GOP nomination for governor of Arizona. That leaves Gov. Jan Brewer and state Treasurer Dean Martin as the GOP frontrunners.

-Todd Palin is doing a fundraiser for Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) primary challenger.

It’s the first Super Tuesday of 2010, and both parties are waiting to see if anti-incumbent fever hits their candidates.

We bet you didn’t know that the 17th Amendment was such a hot-button issue this year.

The issue has already made its way into the races of at least two of the GOP's top 10 House recruits, and one of them has already stumbled over it.

The 17th Amendment provides for direct election of U.S. senators, and it turns out it isn’t too popular in the Tea Party movement. It’s a strange issue to be taking a position on, but when the base calls for something, it’s hard to say no.

And nobody knows that better than Steve Stivers.

The former Ohio state senator said in a 912 Project questionnaire last year that he supported repealing the 17th Amendment, and then he reasserted that position in a January interview with The Hill.

But after Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy’s (D-Ohio) campaign began to make an issue of that position, Stivers backed away from it in recent days.

“I made a mistake," he told the Columbus Dispatch. "I answered that question wrong. It was not intentional.”

Stivers is one of 10 candidates who have attained the status of Young Gun in the NRCC’s program for top candidates. Late last week, another one of the 10, Iraq veteran Vaughn Ward, also came out in favor of the amendment.

Ward, who is running against Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) and faces a primary with a candidate who has come out for a repeal, said he agrees with that position.

“The framers of the Constitution believed that the Senate was to be picked by our state legislature, and through the 17th Amendment, they changed that,” Ward said on a local public television program (see it at about the 15:00 mark here). “And I think that that’s been part of the problem of eroding away state’s rights, where that body, the Senate, is no longer beholden to and tied to the state.

“When you look at how come state’s rights have been so abrogated, it’s because of things like the 17th Amendment that has taken away those rights from our states."

Satisfying the framers' intent is generally a winning position to take, but do most people want their senators elected by their state legislatures?

Sen. David Vitter's (R-La.) lead on Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) has grown to 18 points, according to a new Southern Media Research and Opininon Research poll.

The pollster last surveyed the race in October, when Vitter led 48-36. The lead, since then, has grown to 49-31.

Melancon has room to grown; he is still unknown to 41 percent of voters, compared to just 10 percent for Vitter. Vitter's approval rating, though, is solid, at 54 percent positive and 36 percent negative.

The survey was conducted for Baton Rouge businessman Lane Grigsby, a Republican donor who has contributed to Vitter. Grigsby also paid for the last poll.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has added two new seats to its Red to Blue program for challengers and open-seat candidates.

In Florida's 25th district, former Miami-Dade County Democratic Party Chairman Joe Garcia is going after the open seat left by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), who is running for his retiring brother's seat in a neighboring district. And in Kansas's 3rd district, retiring Rep. Dennis Moore's (D-Kan.) wife, Stephene, is running for his seat.

The two additions bring to 15 the total number of districts the DCCC is targeting with the program. Of those 15, three are open seats currently held by Democrats.

"Stephene Moore and Joe Garcia have come out of the gate strong and built a lot of early excitement for their campaigns from voters across the political spectrum," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.). "Red to Blue will give them the financial and structural edge they need to remain on the road to victory in November."

After being forced from the Illinois lieutenant governor's race amidst revelations of domestic abuse, Scott Lee Cohen is out for some revenge.

Cohen will be running for governor as an independent, he announced Monday. He will be pitted against Gov. Pat Quinn (D) and state Sen. Bill Brady (R).

Cohen won the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor in February but was forced from the race shortly thereafter, when attention was drawn to his 2005 arrest. His girlfriend, a convicted prostitute, said Cohen held a knife to her throat. Cohen has denied it and said he didn't know she was a prostitute.

"Illinois needs honesty more than perfection," Cohen said in a release.

It's hard to see Cohen getting much traction as a third-party candidate, but whatever votes he can muster will likely be at Quinn's expese.

Mitt Romney is backing state Rep. Jeff Perry in the GOP primary in Rep. Bill Delahunt's (D-Mass.) district.

Delahunt's retirement has led candidates to flood the race, including on the GOP side, where Perry faces a primary with former state Treasurer Joe Malone.

Romney chose Perry over Malone on Monday, citing their work together when Romney was governor in the mid-2000s.

"As Governor, I worked closely with Jeff on initiatives to reduce spending, lower taxes, and reform government," Romney said. "He will be a strong conservative voice against the Washington culture of higher taxes, higher spending, and higher debt.  I am looking forward to the contributions he will make in the U.S. House of Representatives."

Romney's political action committee is donating $2,500 to Perry's campaign, with the funds being devoted to the primary.

Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson's (R) Senate campaign has released a poll showing his primary with Rand Paul is a tie.

The Voter/Consumer Research poll shows each candidate at 40 percent, with 20 percent of voters undecided. Six hundred likely primary voters were surveyed on Wednesday and Thursday,

The poll does not include crosstabs detailing either candidates strengths, and it did not include any of the minor candidates, who took a combined 6 percent in a recent SurveyUSA poll.

Pollster Jan van Lohuizen points out that both Grayson and Paul have similar name recognition and favorability numbers. But the numbers are not provided.

That Grayson needs to release a poll showing him tied with Paul shows that Grayson's campaign feels the need to assure donors that the race is competitive. Paul has shown a wide lead in other recent polling, and Grayson's campaign is dealing today with Dr. James Dobson switching his endorsement, which he originally made last week, from Grayson to Paul.

The primary is May 18.

Update 12:15 p.m.: Paul campaign manager David Adams responds: "No one, at this point, expects anything but a big Rand Paul lead based on his support for balanced budgets, term limits, a pro-life and pro-family agenda and a strong national defense."

Former Rep. James Traficant filed paperwork Monday to run as an independent against Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio's 17th congressional district.

Traficant, who represented the district until 2002, when he was expelled from the House following a conviction on corruption charges, had been deciding between challenging Ryan, or Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-Ohio) in a neighboring district.

The flamboyant former congressman was released from a federal prison last September, and had been flirting with the prospect of a comeback in his native Youngstown area, where he remains somewhat personally popular.

Ryan has won reelection fairly comfortably over Republican opponents in the past few election cycles, though Traficant ate into his margin of victory when he was first elected in 2002, and Traficant ran again for Congress from his jail cell.

Ryan is a former staffer for Traficant, whose decision to challenge Ryan was first reported Monday by the Youngstown Vindicator.

Cross-posted to the Briefing Room.