TOP OF THE BALLOT TODAY: Polls show GOP Senate primaries taking shape, as New Hampshire and California candidates open up leads; Crist’s name pops up in Florida GOP investigation.
Ayotte up in New Hampshire
Good news for the national GOP: Former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte holds a wide lead in her state’s GOP Senate primary, according to a new poll.
The race hasn’t seen much in the way of primary polling, and the favorite Ayotte looks strong but not unbeatable. Ayotte leads businessman Bill Binnie 43-19 in the Public Policy Polling (D) survey, with businessman Jim Bender at 11 percent and attorney Ovide Lamontagne at 5 percent.
Ayotte and Binnie carry strong favorable ratings, even though they are still unknown to large chunks of voters. Ayotte has a 50 percent favorable rating, compared to 12 percent unfavorable, while Binnie’s numbers are 40 and 12.
Lamontagne, meanwhile, is in less favorable territory, with 20 percent rating him positively and 22 percent negatively.
Campbell up in California
In more primary polling, a bipartisan survey in California shows former Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Calif.) opening up a 31-17 lead on Carly Fiorina in their Senate primary.
The Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research poll also had state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore at 14 percent.
This is the biggest lead we’ve seen yet from Campbell, who turned in a strong first quarter of fundraising and appears to have the momentum in the race.
The poll also tested the state’s GOP governor primary. There, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner has come withing 47-19 of former eBay CEO Meg Whitman. A recent Field Poll had Whitman up 63-14.
Other updates
-A federal investigation into the Florida Republican Party’s finances appears to be touching on not only Marco Rubio, but also on Gov. Charlie Crist.
-Mitt Romney on Wednesday endorsed state Sen. Joe Heck’s (R) campaign against freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.), along with the reelection campaigns of Nevada Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R) and Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.).
-Former state Sen. Dan Webster (R), whose decision to stay out of the race against Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) cleared the way for several lesser-known candidates, looks as though he will run for the seat after all. That won’t sit well with the rest of the primary field.
-Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), who is likely to face a difficult reelection bid in 2012 thanks to an affair with a former staffer, raised just $50 in the first quarter.
An ethics watchdog group released a list of the 11 "worst governors" in America Wednesday and three potential White House contenders were included in the tally.
Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) released the names of the "11 governors who pride their self-interests over their states'" and among them were Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R). CREW said the 11 "violated agreed upon notions of competence, transparency and integrity."
The group compiled reports on each of the inductees, which can be found here.
Only two Democrats made the list: New York Gov. David Paterson and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. Neither is running for reelection.
Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) moved to reinvigorate her Senate bid by replacing her campaign manager with one of the Colorado GOP's young political talents.
Norton's camp announced Tuesday that state Sen. Josh Penry (R) was taking over the top job, which was being vacated by Norm Cummings. Norton said she owed Cummings a "debt of gratitude" and that he would stay on in an advisory role.
Penry has a long political resume despite still being in his 30s. He was former Rep. Scott McInnis's (R-Colo.) press secretary, briefly a candidate for governor and toyed with a possible House run against Rep. John Salazar (D-Colo.). He's currently the state Senate minority leader but isn't running for a third term.
Norton also announced the hiring of Rich Beeson, formerly the Republican National Committee's political director, as a consultant.
"I am pleased to welcome two very experienced Coloradans to the campaign," Norton said in a statement. "We know this is not a 'business as usual' year, and we simply can't run a 'business as usual' campaign; that's why I've implemented these changes today."
Norton recently announced she planned to petition her way onto the
August primary ballot. The move cost her a place at the state
Republican assembly set for May 22. Meanwhile, her main rival for the GOP
nod, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R), is gaining momentum and support
from national conservative groups.
Norton said her campaign would target "as broad an audience as possible."
"When I made the decision to pursue the Republican nomination via the petition process, my goal was to reach out to as broad an audience as possible, and I believe Josh and Rich will be critical to not only the success of achieving that goal but to victory in November," she said.
Arizona House candidate Vernon Parker (R) is doing everything he can to keep pace with prodigious fundraiser and primary rival Ben Quayle (R).
Quayle has been raising some $90,000 a week since he joined the race for Rep. John Shadegg's (R-Ariz.) seat last month. To keep up, Parker is organizing a bus trip to the Mexico-U.S. border.
On Saturday May 8 supporters can join Parker and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio for what the Paradise Valley mayor's camp is calling the "Border Bus Tour." The event features a four-hour drive south from Phoenix to the border town of Douglas, Ariz., where passengers will disembark to hear Arpaio and Parker "discuss border security and other issues."
The cost: "a minimum contribution of $200 per person which includes lunch at Hotel Gadsden in Douglas," according to Parker's campaign.
Attendees may also "reserve seats next to Sheriff Joe on the bus trip for $1,000 per person."
Will former North Carolina state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) need some DSCC help to get across the finish line in his Senate primary?
His campaign just released its first-quarter fundraising totals, and Cunningham raised a less-than-stellar $345,000 for the period.
The good news is that he has done a pretty good job of banking the money he has raised, and he had nearly $480,000 in cash on hand at the end of March; that has allowed him to be the only candidate to go up on the air with ads. The bad news is that he's still fighting from behind against better-known Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and half a million dollars is unlikely to allow him to saturate the airwaves.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) recruited Cunningham into the race and, though it hasn't officially endorsed him, would clearly prefer that he face Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) in November.
In order to get him to that spot, though, it might have to spend some money in the primary, which concludes May 4. The DSCC did something similar with now-Sen. Jeff Merkley (R-Ore.) in his 2008 primary, and Merkley wound up beating Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.).
Merkley's and Cunningham's totals after the first quarter are remarkably similar. In 2008, Merkley had about $470,000 in the bank for his May primary, while Cunningham in 2010 has $480,000 in cash for his May primary.
Cunningham, of course, is running in a more expensive state. But Merkley's opponent was also raising better money than Cunningham's are. Marshall has proved no fundraising star, either, raising about $160,000 in the first quarter and having $180,000 cash on hand.
Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) on how the "conservative ideologies" of former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) are "out of touch with the state" and how he has a "better chance of convincing moderate Republicans and independents of that than" Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.).
"I intend to make Toomey look absolutely naked," Sestak told the Allentown Morning Call. "Here's a guy with policy who has no clothes."
Former Rep. Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) is currently in third place in the GOP primary in retiring Rep. George Radanovich's (R-Calif.) district, according to a new poll.
The SurveyUSA poll shows state Sen. Jeff Denham and former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson in a statistical tie -- 27 percent for Denham and 26 percent for Patterson -- while Pombo takes 16 percent of the vote.
There is about a month and a half to go in the primary, so there is still time for Pombo.
The former congressman won the fundraising battle in the first quarter, raising $465,000 while Denham raised $342,000. Denham banked more money, though, thanks to a $150,000 contribution to his own campaign.
There's an air war happening in Hawaii, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) is gearing up the attack machine and President Obama makes some Midwestern travel plans.
Air Hawaii
Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) takes aim squarely at his Democratic opponents and their "insider friends from Washington" in his latest spot.
"The only special interest I care about is yours," Djou says at the end of the 30-second TV ad, which went up Tuesday. It's a quick response to the two attack ads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been running against him.
The DCCC went up Tuesday with its second spot attacking Djou on jobs and his support for "cutting thousands of teachers." The 30-second ad is airing in the Honolulu media market, which covers the entire state.
Djou faces Democrats Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case in the special House election set for May 22, and things are likely to get nastier as the vote approaches.
Reporting for duty
On the same day that Sestak dropped his minute-long bio ad, Sen. Arlen Specter’s (D-Pa.) campaign released a spot questioning his military record. Trailing as he is in the polls, Sestak will have no choice but to go negative on Specter if he wants to win the Democratic Senate primary.
And he plans to, he told the New York Times. The paper reported, "When asked whether his next round of TV ads would include a negative one against the senator, Mr. Sestak said he would keep pointing out that until recently, Mr. Specter had voted more often with Republicans, and with President George W. Bush, than with the Democrats."
Pennsylvania Democrats are bracing for a war of attrition.
Down on Main Street
Obama will travel to Missouri, Iowa and Illinois next week as part of a three-state swing to talk to real voters about real issues, according to several reports.
It'll be his second trip to Iowa in almost a month and Democrats sound happy about it.
"I've talked about the need for him to get out and talk to people about what concerns them in the heartland," Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) told the Des Moines Register. "I'm just excited to see that he's coming out here and expressing interest in discussing these things."
Other updates
Obama will return to California in May for another fundraiser for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Republicans smell blood. Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Calif.) is up with a new TV spot that doesn't attack his primary opponents but the Democratic incumbent.
Campbell's ad uses footage from a Senate hearing last summer wherein Boxer insisted Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh, with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, call her "senator" and not "ma'am." Campbell calls it a "sign of arrogance." His campaign told the Sacramento Bee that the new ad is running on cable stations statewide. Campbell has to get past the June 8th primary before he can face Boxer.
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