Sen. McCain said he won't support Florida Gov. Crist in his Senate race if he runs as an Independent.

TOP OF THE BALLOT TODAY: No good options for Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and staying in the GOP primary isn't even one of them; Colorado Senate candidate Andrew Romanoff (D) raises less than $400k; Sen. Cornyn pressures Dino Rossi on Washington Senate race.

Why Crist drops out/why he goes indy

It has become abundantly clear that there is no future for Charlie Crist in the 2010 Florida GOP Senate primary. The question now is whether he sees a future for himself in the GOP at all.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) sent a letter to supporters Monday stating that it is convinced Crist, who it has endorsed, will not run in the GOP primary this year. In the face of that, it urges supporters to tell him to drop out altogether and not pursue a potential vote-splitting independent bid.

If Crist drops out and runs as an independent, he can basically say goodbye to ever running and winning as a Republican again. If he still has dreams to be president, however, look for him to drop out and eye a 2012 bid against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).

There aren’t many good options for Crist at this point, though. His Senate primary campaign has fallen farther and more dramatically than just about any in recent memory. He basically finds himself a man without a party, and it’s difficult to see where he fits into the GOP fold in the near future.

Former state House speaker Marco Rubio (R) is a very capable candidate, but a lot of this is simply about Charlie Crist. Are two years – and, really, it’s more like one year before he would have to launch another campaign – going to be enough for the GOP to welcome Crist back into the fold for another try at the Senate? Unless they have no other options, it’s doubtful.

The good thing for Crist is that he still has 10 days to make up his mind. It’s also relatively easy for him to make the switch. While Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) had to collect signatures for a possible independent bid before his 2006 primary, Crist merely has to pay a filing fee.

Romanoff still cash-poor

Speaking of primaries – Andrew Romanoff (D) still isn’t raising big money to take on Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). Read more...

Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.), who has long ignored calls to pay his dues to the House Democratic campaign committee, is doing an about face this cycle.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has set the dues bar for the Financial Services subcommittee chairman at $250,000 this cycle. But as of Jan. 21, Gutierrez hadn't contributed a dime.

An ethics watchdog group is preparing to file a complaint against a major donor to Sen. David Vitter’s (R-La.) campaign.

Rahm Emanuel admitted he wants to return home and run for mayor of Chicago some time in the near future.

"I hope Mayor Daley seeks reelection. I will work and support him if he seeks reelection," the White House chief of staff told PBS's Charlie Rose in an interview. "But if Mayor Daley doesn't, one day I would like to run for mayor of the city of Chicago."

He added, "That's always been an aspiration of mine even when I was in the House of Representatives."

There were conflicting reports over the last few months about whether he actually wanted to run for the Windy City's top job.

Richard Daley is set to surpass his father as the longest serving mayor if he sees out his current term, which expires next year. Some reports suggest he plans to run again, which means Emanuel would be looking at a 2015 bid. 

Emanuel, a former aide to Daley, also told Rose that he no longer was interested in becoming speaker of the House.

Nevada Senate candidate Sue Lowden (R) sought to capitalize on an obscure anniversary Monday.

Her campaign noted April 19 marked the three-year anniversary of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) declaring the Iraq war "lost."

Lowden, one of the leading contenders for the GOP nomination, said Reid "turned his back on U.S. soldiers."

"If Harry Reid had his way over the Commander in Chief and the commanders in the war zone, we would have withdrawn from Iraq in defeat and the region would be a much different place today,” she said in a statement.
 
The Reid camp was quick to point out that the four-term Democrat was saying there was no military solution to the conflict, an opinion many others shared at the time. "As long as we follow the President's path in Iraq, the war is lost," Reid said on the Senate floor three years ago. "But there is still a chance to change course -- and we must change course. No one wants us to succeed in the Middle East more than I do. Our brave men and women overseas have passed every test with flying colors. They have earned our pride and praise, more importantly, they deserve a strategy worthy of their sacrifice."
 
His campaign shot back at Lowden with its own attack, accusing her of supporting "a special burial tax for Nevada veterans."
 
"Sen. Reid has long been recognized as a champion for the needs of Nevada's troops and our veterans and it's disgraceful that someone who supports a death tax on veterans and opposes millions in funding for VA healthcare right here in Nevada has chosen to make this a campaign issue," Kelly Steele, a spokesman for the Reid campaign, said in a statement.
 
Meanwhile, the Iraq war re-entered the headlines Monday. Vice President Joe Biden announced the killing of two top leaders of al Qaeda Iraq, crediting Iraqi Security Forces supported by American troops with the successful operation.

If Republican Tim Burns can win the special election to replace Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.), we may be talking about it as a repudiation of the healthcare bill.

It turns out the bill is tremendously unpopular in the district. That is, according to a sneak peek of a poll that is set to be released tomorrow by Public Policy Polling (D):

Some Democrats may not be thrilled Mark Critz is emphasizing his opposition to the health care bill as he seeks to replace John Murtha in the House, but after polling the district it's hard to see that as anything but necessary for survival. Only 28% of voters in the district express support for it with 59% opposed. Even Democrats there support it by just a 43/39 margin.

Obama's overall approval rating in the district is 33%, with 57% of voters disapproving of him. It's hard to imagine any Democrat winning an open seat this year where the President is that unpopular but it's still a close race. We'll have the full numbers out tomorrow.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee now believes there's "zero chance" Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will stay in the GOP Senate primary. It's calling on his supporters to urge him to "drop out of the race and wait for another day."

"We have communicated this message indirectly and would have given it to the Governor directly had he returned Senator Cornyn’s phone call," Rob Jesmer, the committee's executive director wrote in an email that the committee leaked Monday. "If any of you have influence with Governor Crist, we hope you will call his campaign and encourage him to do the right thing."

The committee will throw its full backing behind former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) if Crist launches an independent bid. "[I]f the Governor decides to run independent, regardless of any public commitments he makes regarding organization, we will support Marco Rubio in any way possible," Jesmer said.

NRO's Rich Lowry makes the case for why Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) shouldn't run for Senate as an independent.

It's all about "liv[ing] to fight another day," according to Lowry, who's supporting former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

St. Petersburg Times's Adam Smith boils down Lowry's argument into five points: 

_{1. It would reinforce the image of Crist having no principles. 2. He'd lose GOP support. 3. He couldn't raise money. 4. Donors would demand money back. 5. He'd probably lose any way.}

Crist has until noon on April 30 to decide.