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Poll: Cain leads GOP field in three states; Gingrich surging

By Justin Sink - 10/04/11 03:09 PM ET

New polls in three states show that Herman Cain is leading the Republican field, reinforcing evidence that the former businessman's campaign has gained serious traction in the GOP race.

Public Policy Polling results from North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia each show Cain leading Republicans, posting a 14 point lead in Nebraska and a 10 point lead in North Carolina. In West Virginia, Cain edged Newt Gingrich by 6 points; the former Speaker also placed second in the Nebraska polled and tied with Mitt Romney for second in North Carolina.

The insurgent candidacies of Cain and Gingrich mean bad news for Rick Perry, who has slipped in polls nationwide. A Washington Post/ABC poll released Tuesday showed that nationwide, Romney led the race with 25 percent of support, with Perry slipping into a second-place tie with Cain at 16 percent. Perry's numbers represented a 13-point drop over the past month, while Cain has seen a 12-point gain.

"The thing fueling Cain's lead in all of these states is strong support from the furthest right segment of the Republican electorate," said Tom Jensen of PPP in a statement. "Cain is at 35% with 'very conservative' voters and has a 14 point lead over Perry with them in North Carolina. In Nebraska he's at 36% with them, putting him up 22 points over Gingrich and Perry.  And in West Virginia he gets 25% with them, giving him a 9 point edge on Gingrich and Perry."

Jensen said that Cain's surge is primarily the result of "very conservative" voters shopping for a candidate in the field.

"They've gone from Huckabee to Trump back to Huckabee to Bachmann to Perry and now to Cain. I would expect their support for Cain to be pretty temporary," Jensen said. "One thing that's been very clear through all these twists and turns though- they're not going to support Romney."

Gingrich, however, seems to have built his lead with moderate voters. The former speaker has declined to attack other Republican candidates at debates, and recently announced a revamped "Contract with America" in hopes of rekindling the passions that brought Republicans to power in 1994.

"Those voters have previously tended to give Romney first place status- it really says something about the state of the Republican field when Newt Gingrich becomes the choice for centrists," Jensen said.

But while Republicans might not be completely enamored with Romney, he has maintained solid support in both state and national polls.

"Romney's support has been pretty steady all year as folks have risen and fallen around him- the question is just whether that base of support is going to end up being enough to carry him to the nomination," Jensen said.



Source:
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/185453-poll-cain-leads-gop-field-in-three-states-gingrich-surging
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