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Santorum up 14 points in latest Louisiana poll

By Justin Sink - 03/23/12 08:41 AM ET

Rick Santorum looks poised for a commanding win in Saturday's Louisiana primary, according to new poll numbers released on the eve of the Pelican State vote.

Santorum holds a 42 to 28 percent lead over Republican front-runner Mitt Romney, according to Public Policy Polling. Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, was the choice of 18 percent of those surveyed, while Ron Paul earned 8 percent. Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer, who has declared his intention to run as an Independent, is pulling 2 percent in his home state.

Romney has had a tough time winning voters in the South, losing Alabama and Mississippi to Santorum last week and earlier contests in South Carolina and Georgia to Newt Gingrich. Victories in Virginia and Florida come with asterisks — only Romney and Ron Paul qualified for the ballot in the Old Dominion, while Romney's support in Florida was concentrated in the southern part of the state, which does not identify culturally with the Deep South.

Santorum's support in Lousiana is concentrated among strongly conservative voters. He pulls half of voters who self-identify as "very conservative" — versus only 23 percent for Romney — and wins 44 percent of those who support the Tea Party. That's double Romney's support. Among evangelicals, Santorum leads 51 percent to 23.

Santorum also seems to benefit from those making up their mind at the last minute, with nearly twice as many late deciders breaking for him as for Romney. That suggests Louisiana voters are unimpressed by the Romney campaign's argument that the race is coming to a close, and that many voters who might have originally supported Gingrich are likely breaking for Santorum.

Even traditional strengths for Romney, like urban voters, only give him a marginal edge. Romney's lead is 37 percent to 33 percent in Lousiana's cities, while he trails 38 percent to 29 in the suburbs and 50 percent to 23 in rural areas. 

The PPP data largely echoes a Rasmussen poll released Thursday that showed Santorum with a 12-point lead in the state.


Source:
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/217775-santorum-up-14-points-in-latest-louisiana-poll

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