Santorum campaign memo claims delegate count tighter than media reports

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But his logic is predicated by the Republican National Committee overturning their decisions to allow Florida and Arizona vote as winner-take-all states. RNC rules demanded that those early voting states proportionally award their delegates. But since the states already had their delegate totals halved as punishment for moving their primaries up before the date permitted under national committee bylaws, the party has said they will not face further sanctions.

Santorum's count also relies on the candidate being able to convert a not-inconsequential number of unbound delegates, who are not legally bound to vote with their assigned candidate in the first round of voting. Still, there's little evidence of a mass defection of delegates away from Santorum, with establishment support increasingly coalescing around Romney.

Nevertheless, Yob believes that with a winner-take-all race in Texas that awards nearly 200 delegates, a favorable May calendar and a possible alliance with Newt Gingrich, Santorum can stay competitive in the election.

"This race is much closer than the media and Establishment Republicans would like to report ... and events such as Texas are dramatically changing the future  landscape in a manner that is positive to Rick Santorum and negative for Mitt Romney," Yob writes.

That's likely wishful thinking. The RNC has insisted they do not plan to change how the early voting states assigned their delegates, and Mitt Romney looks poised to add to his delegate lead with a spate of wins in Northeastern states that vote at the end of the month. 

Furthermore, the Gingrich and Santorum campaigns are lagging. Gingrich has laid off a third of his campaign staff and scaled back appearances on the trail, while Santorum is taking a four-day break over the Easter holiday.

Still, the campaign continues to say that Santorum has a shot, noting only half the delegates have been awarded.

“We’re not going anywhere,” Santorum spokesman Hogan Gidley said. “It’s halftime. We’ve got a long way to go here. The road is narrow and tough but it starts in Pennsylvania. We can win there and if we win there we’re in great shape for May.”