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But the president does continue to carry strong leads with African Americans (93 percent of whom said they would vote for the president), young voters (54 percent), and women (52 percent). If the president is able to maintain his substantial leads within that coalition, he will likely prevail in November.

Also aiding Obama: deep skepticism about Mitt Romney among the Ohio electorate. Just over a third of voters surveyed say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican nominee, while over half — 54 percent — have a negative view. Among undecideds, neither candidate tops double digits in their approval ratings, with more than six in 10 undecided voters saying they disapprove of both Romney and Obama.

The president can also take solace in numbers that show Romney's Ohio trump card — choosing Sen. Rob PortmanRob PortmanRepeal of Obama drilling rule stalls in the Senate Chamber pressures red-state Dems to back Trump on cutting regs GOP govs: ObamaCare repeal bill shifts 'significant' costs to states MORE (R-Ohio) as his running mate — still does not seem likely to aid him much in the state. Less than two-thirds of Ohio voters have any opinion of their senator, ranking Portman among the least well-known members of the Senate. Adding Portman to the ticket did little to move the dial with voters, with Obama-Biden leading Romney-Portman 47-43 percent.