Poll: Obama leads in Virginia, North Carolina

President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the pivotal Southern swing states of North Carolina and Virginia, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

The president has opened a substantial eight-point lead in Virginia, leading Romney 50-42 percent according to the survey released by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. In North Carolina, Obama leads 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error.

That's encouraging news for the president, who figured to lose ground in those states after his embrace of gay marriage and the Supreme Court's decision to uphold his controversial signature healthcare law. If Obama can hold Virginia, where the growth of the Washington, D.C., suburbs and the Latino population have made the state's 13 electoral votes more attainable for Democrats in recent years, the paths to victory for Romney become increasingly narrow.

"Obama has consistently fared very well in Virginia, leading by 6 points, 8 points, and now 8 points again on our last three polls," said PPP polling director Tom Jensen in a release. "This is looking like it could be something of a firewall state for him."

There doesn't appear to be a quick fix for Romney in the state, either. Adding popular Gov. Bob McDonnell to the ticket only gives Romney an additional point advantage in his head-to-head matchup against Obama. And adding House Minority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) would actually hurt Romney's chances in the state; asked about a Obama-Biden versus Romney-Cantor ticket, the Democrats posted a 12 point advantage.

Further complicating Romney's efforts in Virginia could be former Rep. Virgil Goode (R-Va.), who may be added to the Virginia ballot as the Constitution Party nominee for president. The conservative lawmaker enjoys high name recognition in the state, and pulls nine percent of the vote if included among the choices for president, increasing Obama's lead to 14 points over Romney.

"It's highly unlikely Goode would get 9 percent in the end but he certainly could make a difference if Virginia ended up being more like a 1-2 pt race," said Jensen. "Goode staying off the ballot may be vital to Romney's prospects there."

In North Carolina, meanwhile, Democrats seem to be gaining traction with their advertisements and speeches questioning Mitt Romney's tenure at Bain Capital. Four in 10 voters say his work at Bain makes them feel more negative toward Romney, versus just under three in 10 who say it makes them view the candidate in a more positive light.

Still, there are a few encouraging signs for Romney. While voters in both North Carolina and Virginia were evenly split on the Supreme Court's healthcare ruling, those surveyed opposed the president's announcement that he would halt deportations on certain illegal immigrants by a four point margin in Virginia and a six point margin in North Carolina.

 

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