President Obama has led in Ohio throughout this cycle, but polls have tightened in recent weeks. According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Obama leads Romney by 2.4 percentage points in the Buckeye State.
But the Bird memo pointed to four polls that show Obama with leads of between 19 and 52 points in Ohio among early voters, and argued the demographics and geography of those who had voted early strongly favors the president.
“It turns out Republicans’ mangled math isn’t limited to a mystery tax cut plan that doesn’t add up,” Bird wrote. “Because Republicans had a competitive primary this year and Democrats did not ... Republicans have a 460,000-person edge this year in past primary voters — or what Romney’s campaign is disingenuously referring to as voters registered as Republicans.”
The Republican National Committee responded by calling the Obama campaign memo “panicked,” and arguing that Republicans have shrunk the president’s lead in Ohio early voting for 12 straight days.
“Their 20 point advantage in 2008 is now less than 7 and shrinking,” said GOP communications and research director Tim Miller in an email.
Since early voting began in Ohio on Oct. 2, more than 1.4 million people there have voted or requested a ballot, according to CNN.
The memo comes at a time when the Obama campaign is in sore need of some good polling data. A Gallup daily tracking survey of likely voters on Thursday showed Romney with a 7-percentage-point advantage over Obama.
While Obama trails Romney nationally by 1 percentage point, according to the RCP average, his campaign has consistently touted its wider path to an Electoral College victory.
“Despite our smaller numbers, however, Democratic primary voters are outvoting Republican primary voters by a wide margin across the state,” Bird continued. “A greater percentage of Democratic primary voters than Republican primary voters have requested a ballot, have returned a mail ballot and have voted in person. Altogether, 145,880 Democratic primary voters have cast ballots, 28,013 more than Republican primary voters.”
“President Obama is winning early vote among primary election voters in the key battleground of Ohio,” he concluded.
Obama is scheduled to campaign in Ohio on Tuesday — the day after the last presidential debate.
Early voting has been a controversial issue in this election cycle.
On Tuesday, the Supreme Court said early voting in Ohio could continue, which was viewed as a major victory for the president.
Ohio Republicans had tried to block early voting from taking place three days before Election Day.
Democrats initiated the legal battle over Ohio's early voting policy after state officials decided to eliminate three days of early voting that were offered in 2008. Minorities, who traditionally favor Democrats, often take advantage of early voting.
—This story was updated at 9:07 a.m.