CBO estimate: Baucus plan reduces deficit, covers 29 million by 2019

Sen. Max Baucus' (D-Mont) healthcare reform proposal would cover about 29 million uninsured Americans and subtract $49 billion from the deficit by 2019, the Congressional Budget Office estimated on Wednesday.

But one of the plan's signature elements -- a healthcare cooperative -- would have "very little effect" on total enrollment in insurance exchanges or the total cost because it "seem[s] unlikely to establish a significant market" in most of the country, the CBO added.

Baucus released his much-anticipated bill on Wednesday, to the chagrin of a number of Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee. Mark-up will not begin until later this month, lawmakers confirmed today, but that has not stopped a many members from both parties from criticizing Baucus' work.

The more progressive members of the House lament that Baucus' more than $800-billion proposal lacks a public option. Blue Dogs in the chamber, however, regard the bill as an acceptable compromise. Senate Republicans worry about its cost and ability to drive competition, and a handful of lawmakers from both parties fret its surtax on high-cost insurance plans and medical device manufacturers.

The CBO weighed those details, and a number of additional propoals, and released its official scoring on Wednesday. The non-partisan office predicted Baucus' bill will cover 29 million non-elderly Americans over the next 10 years, leaving about 25 million still uninsured by 2019 -- about one-third of which, CBO added, would be illegal immigrants. About 25 million Americans would choose to purchase insurance through the healthcare exchange, they said.

Read the rest after the jump.

The co-ops, however, may not prove as effective as Baucus perhaps hoped, the CBO predicted.

"The proposed co-ops had very little effect on the estimates of total enrollment in the exchanges or federal costs because, as they are described in the specifications, they seem unlikely to establish a significant market presence in many areas of the country or to noticeably affect federal subsidy payments," the CBO said.

Baucus' proposed changes to Medicare and Medicaid would decrease direct spending by about $409 billion by 2019, the CBO also found. At the same time, enrollment in Medicaid would swell by about 11 million.

All told, the bill will be revenue neutral -- an important selling point that could sway a number of lawmakers who are still on the fence about the proposal. The CBO could not, however, estimate with much precision how much the bill would cost after 2019, though they speculated it could continue to reduce the deficit.

The CBO also cautioned Wednesday that its estimate was preliminary. Missing, among other data, was an analysis of the bill's legislative language, which they explained could have a significant impact on cost projections.