GOP survey shows race for Tauscher's seat could be tight

A new survey suggests Republicans could have a shot in the special election for former Rep. Ellen Tauscher’s (D-Calif.) seat.

Republican David Harmer’s campaign sponsored a poll in late September that showed Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) with a seven-point lead on Harmer, 41-34.

The Wilson Research Strategies poll notes that its numbers assume Republicans will turn out at about 29 percent – their share of the registration. But if the numbers are weighted according to primary turnout, when Republicans represented 35 percent of voters, Garamendi’s lead is down to 39-37.

The poll also says Garamendi’s favorable number dropped by 3 percent between early August and late September (he finished first in an open primary Sept. 1), while his unfavorable number rose 6 percent. The generic ballot, over that span, changed from a 55-29 Democratic advantage to a 44-40 Democratic edge.

Harmer has money and has been added to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) Young Guns program, but the race is not yet a top target. In 2008, the district went 65 percent for President Obama, and it has a D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI).

Tauscher took a position as an undersecretary in the State Department.