What Hutchison's decision means to the candidates

The Austin American-Statesman has the blow-by-blow on what Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R-Texas) decision to delay her resignation means to those pursuing the seat:

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst: Remember that great line from the 2009 Legislature about how Dewhurst was engaged, just not with the session? Well, after seven years as lieutenant governor, Dewhurst is facing five more. He’s been running for re-election for months but he has been known to be very interested in the U.S. Senate seat. There is still a path to the Senate for Dewhurst next year, provided that he follows through with his plans to run for re-election as lieutenant governor. If Hutchison resigns, Perry can appoint Dewhurst. Then, assuming that Dewhurst had won the March primary for lieutenant governor, the State Republican Executive Committee would choose the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor. If Perry is worried about how that would look, or if he simply decides for another reason that he doesn’t want to appoint Dewhurst, then Dewhurst could not be replaced on the ballot. He could still run in the special election, but if that special election is on the same day as the general election, how do you run for two offices at once? What works in Dewhurst’s advantage is his considerable wealth — if Perry appoints him, he could run against well-financed Democrats without drawing too much national money away from other races. One other possible scenario: Dewhurst serves one more term as lieutenant governor, hopes that Perry beats Hutchison and then he’s well-positioned to run in 2014 if Perry decides he’s had enough (or if a Democrat defeats Perry in 2010).

Attorney General Greg Abbott: The most likely scenario for Abbott is that, come January 2011, he’s starting his third term as attorney general. Perhaps his only hope of becoming lieutenant governor is if Dewhurst is appointed or elected to the U.S. Senate and then the SREC nominates Abbott to succeed him. Similar to Dewhurst, he could just serve another term and then run for lieutenant governor or governor in four years.

State Sen. Florence Shapiro: Shapiro has been seeking the U.S. Senate seat and now must decide whether to follow through with her plans to run for re-election to the state Senate. If she opts not to seek re-election, a prized seat will be up for grabs for the first time in almost 20 years.

Michael Williams and Roger Williams Each can continue to seek the U.S. Senate seat knowing that it will at some point come open, and neither has to run for anything else next year. So each offers Perry the opportunity to make an appointment without disrupting the rest of the statewide GOP ballot. And each can lay claim to some advantage: Roger Williams has more cash on hand than any other Republican, while Michael Williams has been a very popular figure among the Republican base for years.

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Texas Democrats: Democrats have said for months that they wanted to see how things would play out on the Republican side before they started announcing for statewide offices (other than governor). With the filing period starting in a couple of weeks, it’s time for any Democratic candidates for statewide office to kick things into gear. Does the party field an established candidate for lieutenant governor? For comptroller? Does anyone other than Barbara Ann Radnofsky run for attorney general? As for the governor’s race, Bill White and John Sharp still say they’re not going to switch over and run.

One key point to think about here: if Hutchison really plans to, regardless of her fate, resign after the March primary, why is word being put out for upwardly mobile candidates to adjust their plans? As long as she resigns within about a month of the primary, the planned May 2010 special election remains intact.

If she delays beyond that, the special election likely moves to November. If she doesn't resign, the race would be in 2012.

Many are skeptical that she would actually resign if she lost, and her track record in this situation is only feeding the beast on that count.

Of course, she could make the case that pressing issues in the Senate prevent her from giving a firm date on her resignation (that's the case she's making now), but that's not likely to assuage anxious would-be senators.