A new poll throws some water on the idea that Rep. Mike
Castle (R-Del.) hurt his Senate prospects with his vote against the health care
While Susquehanna showed Castle dropping behind Beau Biden
(D) by five points after the vote, Public Policy Polling (PPP) today shows
Castle holding steady with a 45-39 lead.
What’s more, while Susquehanna speculated about the health
care vote hurting Castle, the Democratic-leaning firm PPP actually tested the
question. Turns out, more Delaware voters say they are opposed to the health
care plan (46 percent) than support it (43 percent).
The poll, combined with Delaware Gov. Jack Markell’s (D) comments this
week, will give the GOP plenty of ammo to suggest that health care isn’t even a winner in a 62 percent Obama state.
Castle remains popular among independents, carrying a 52-23
lead with that group, and he also takes 20 percent of Democrats.
Obama remains over 50 percent in the state, but he is down
to 53 percent after polling in the 60s earlier this year. Nearly one-fifth of
those who said they voted for Obama (18 percent) said they will back Castle in
the Senate race.
Castle’s favorability-unfavorability numbers (55-28) are
also a good deal better than Biden’s (43-35).
Castle has more appeal to Democrats and independents than any other Republican Senate
candidate in the country, and that’s allowing him to hold the early lead in
this race,” PPP
President Dean Debnam said.
It’s going to be
very hard for any other Democrat to beat Castle, but Biden is taking his time
in deciding on the race. There’s been a lot of talk in recent days about
Democrats retiring and dropping out of certain races, but if Biden opts not to
run, that might be the biggest sign of trouble ahead for Democrats.