Reinforcing Burr's vulnerability

No matter how much the environment swings toward Republicans, we must remember that North Carolina is now a swing state, and it will behave as such.

And Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), under the right circumstances, could very well be vulnerable.

After some positive polling news in a recent months, Burr has come down a bit. Public Policy Polling (D) showed him with an 11-point lead over a generic Democrat in October, and that margin is now down to one.

It's hard to see exactly what caused such a change, but the normal fluctuations of polling continue to show that Burr is a target. He's not terribly well-known in the state -- hence, undefined -- and a one-point lead against a generic Democrat doesn't exactly scream "heavy favorite."

Burr's lead over actual Democratic opponents is also down. He now leads North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) just 42-37. Marshall is reasonably well known but isn't the Democratic establishment choice for the seat. That distinction belongs to former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, who recently got in the race and trails 45-36 in the PPP poll.

Democrats might be benefitting slightly from news coverage of Cunningham's entry into the race. A poll conducted before Cunningham's entry into the race and released Tuesday by the conservative-leaning Civitas Institute had Burr up eight points on Marshall, 40-32. Democrats also led the generic ballot (versus a generic Republican, rather than Burr) 40-39.

All signs point to a state Democrats could potentially play offense in. The question will be whether they can get Cunningham through the primary and whether they can make the investment with so many other races on the map.