Another reason for Ellsworth over Hill

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) appears to be emerging as the favorite for the Democratic Senate nomination in Indiana, and that could be good news for House Democrats.

Indiana political expert Brian Howey reported Thursday that sources close to Ellsworth say he is likely to run for Senate, with state Rep. Trent Van Haaften set to replace him in his House race by Friday’s deadline.

Ellsworth’s office didn’t confirm that news, but he is expected to make a decision as early as Thursday this week.

If Democrats’ pick is Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.), however, their ability to replace him with a strong candidate is in doubt.

The rules for replacing candidates on the ballot put Democrats in a potentially difficult situation in Hill’s district. That’s because if he leaves his House race to run for the Senate, they might be left with a minor candidate as their nominee in November.

So far, the other Democratic candidates running in the 9^th district include three unknowns: Lendall Terry, John Bottorff and Carol Johnson-Smith, who filed Wednesday.

If no other candidate files by Friday at noon, and Hill runs for Senate, it appears one of those three would be the Democratic nominee in a swing district against one of two well-funded GOP candidates, former Rep. Mike Sodrel or attorney Todd Young.

Democrats close to the situation acknowledge that picking Hill could imperil his House seat, but there’s not a whole lot they can do, given the timing of Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-Ind.) retirement.

Some say Hill could remain on the primary ballot, since it looks like the Senate nomination won’t become official until after the May 4 primary, but others insist that he would have to withdraw from his House race because state law prohibits seeking two offices at once.

The last thing Democrats want is an open legal question jeopardizing a top House battleground. Democratic Party leaders have been seeking plenty of legal advice in advance of the filing deadlines in the coming days.

Complicating matters in Hill’s district is the fact that his level of interest in the Senate isn’t even known yet, because he has been on an overseas congressional delegation trip this week.

By contrast, in Ellsworth’s district, no other Democrats had filed as of Thursday afternoon. And even if Van Haaften doesn’t file in time, party leaders could pick their nominee because there are no other candidates in the race.

Both Ellsworth and Hill occupy districts that have been targeted by the GOP. Both districts are in southern Indiana, which went modestly for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008.

Candidates who are interested in seeking their party’s Senate nomination must submit their names to the state party executive committee by Monday. From there, party leaders will select their nominee.

Another House member who has been mentioned, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), faces no primary opponents and would, like Ellsworth, be easier to replace with a top candidate.

Republicans have cried foul, suggesting Bayh subverted the primary process by exiting the race the day before Senate signatures were due to counties around the state.