-A new SurveyUSA Senate poll in Kentucky shows GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson leading state Attorney General Jack Conway 44-37 and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo 46-40. But the most surprising part of the poll might be the fact that Rand Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), trails Grayson just 37-26 in the GOP primary. Still, it's also noteworthy that Grayson has turned Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-Ky.) deficit into a lead for the Republicans. But that's not all that surprising in a red state. On the Democratic side, Mongiardo leads Conway 39-31. Paul trails both in the general election by small margins.
-State Rep. Beth Coulson is the big GOP name in the race to replace Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.). This is a solid get for Republicans in what will be a very tough seat to hold.
-Another poll shows Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) opening a lead on state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) in his state's governor's race. After a Chamber of Commerce poll this week showed him up 43-34, a Quinnipiac poll now shows him up 38-34. That's after Sink led by the same count in a previous version of the poll. This is perhaps the biggest 2010 governor's race in the country, so keep an eye on it.
(Note: the poll also showed former state House Speaker Marco Rubio continuing to trail by around 30 points in his GOP Senate primary against Gov. Charlie Crist. His 55-26 deficit is virtually the same as it was in June. On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek still leads an undeveloped primary with 18 percent.)
-Crist to meet with state Rep. Jennifer Carroll and University of North Florida President John Delaney as he weighs his options for appointing a replacement for Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.). Others earning the governor's personal attention are former U.S. Attorney Bobby Martinez and former Florida Secretary of State Jim Smith. I would handicap, but recent Senate appointment history has convinced me that we rarely know where these things are headed. Still, if he's talking to someone directly, that certainly says something.
UPDATE: Crist has also requested questionnaires from former chief of staff George LeMieux and Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.).
-New Jersey GOP gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie (R) admits that he should have disclosed a $46,000 loan to a former staffer from his time as U.S. attorney. Anytime an apology is this lengthy, it's probably not a good sign for his campaign.
-Maryland state Sen. E.J. Pipkin (R) doesn't seem to be in any hurry to enter the race against Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.). Such is your luxury when you are personally wealthy. Pipkin even suggested he could wait until next year. The dilemma this time is whether to give up his state Senate seat, which is something he didn't confront last time. If he ran, he would challenge fellow state Sen. Andy Harris in a primary.
-Just to be clear, indicted Nevada Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R) will not be running for Senate. Krolicki had formed an exploratory committee, but he was indicted shortly thereafter and hasn't made much noise since then. Now, it turns out, he will run for reelection to his current post while a series of little-known GOPers line up for the right to face Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Democrats will pay a price at the polls if they decide to "go it alone" on healthcare reform legislation, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) vowed Wednesday.
DeMint said that if Democrats choose to abandon talks with Republicans, or even use procedural maneuvers to pass a healthcare bill containing a public option with only a simple majority in the Senate, they would suffer losses in the next election cycle.
"I think the American people are already outraged," DeMint said in an interview on CNBC. "If we get into this kind of backroom shenanigans, I think the American people are going to throw them out of office -- and they should."
The conservative South Carolinian asserted that it would harm everyone from President Obama to Democrats downballot.
"If he passes this without any Republican support -- or really, any American support -- I think it's going to hurt his presidency, I think it's going to hurt the Democrats in the next election," he said.
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist seems the favorite to be the Republican candidate for Senate next year, while the field for his Democratic opponent is more muddled, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
55 percent of registered Republicans in Florida told a Quinnipiac poll that they would support Crist in the Republican primary for the state's 2010 Senate race.
By contrast, Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who's been favored by more conservative activists, won the support of 26 percent, with 18 percent of the state's Republicans undecided.
Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) maintains an small, early lead in the pack of Democrats looking to take on Crist or Rubio.
18 percent of Florida Democrats back Meek, compared with 12 percent for Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.), and nine percent for Rep. Corrine Brown (D-Fla.).
57 percent of Florida Democrats, however, remain undecided.
The candidates are looking to succeed Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), who is retiring.
The poll, conducted between August 12-17, has a 4.6 percent margin of error for the Republican primary and a 4.7 percent margin of error for the Democratic primary.
A nonprofit children's advocacy group has launched an ad buy against Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) hitting him for not supporting the current health care proposals in Congress.
The group, Vote Kids, notes that Vitter has received more than $1 million from the health care and insurance industry and urges him to put children first.
"Call Sen. Vitter and tell him to look our for our children -- not the health insurance industry," the ad says.
The ad buy is $36,000. Vitter is likely to face Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) in what could be one of the top Senate races next year.
Proponents of healthcare reform are guilty of trying to sell Americans "snake oil," Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) asserted Tuesday.
"They don't want the snake oil that's being presented to them when it comes to the government taking over healthcare," Bachmann said during an appearance on the Sean Hannity radio show.
She took aim at one of her House colleagues, Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.), for selling that "snake oil," when he told liberal bloggers he'd be willing to vote against the interests of his district on healthcare.
"We may be calling him the ex-congressman," said Bachmann, who herself has been made a top target of Democrats in the 2010 election cycle. "I think that's about the only ad you'd need to run in the next election."
The conservative Minnesotan, in her second term in Congress, also reveled in being compared to former Alaska. Gov. Sarah Palin (R). Hannity said Bachmann was Democrats' second-most hated Republican, behind Palin.
"That is excellent company to be in," Bachmann said.
Democrats think Americans are stupid, the executive director of House Republicans' campaign committee alleged Tuesday.
National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Guy Harrison charged congressional Democrats with "turning their backs" on their constituents in an email to supporters soliciting donations.
"Did you know...Democrats think you're stupid," Harrison wrote to open his email. "Why else do Democrats think you are unable to choose what's best for you?"
The top NRCC official cited Rep. Eric Massa's (D-N.Y.) words to a liberal group about voting against the interests of his district on healthcare as evidence.
"If you want your voice heard in Congress you must retire Speaker Pelosi, Eric Massa and every other Democrat that puts your interests and welfare second," he said. "The only way to stop government-run healthcare is to run Democrats out of government."
Another familiar face is jumping in the race to replace Rep. Mary Fallin (R-Okla.). Physician Johnny Roy, who took 3 percent in the 2006 primary, joins state Rep. Mike Thompson and former state Rep. Kevin Calvey, another repeat candidate. But all eyes will be on Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, who took Fallin to a primary runoff in 2006.
Just hours after his office indicated he was looking seriously at the upcoming Senate appointment, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said he will not seek Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-Fla.) seat, after all. Now attention turns to whoever else Gov. Charlie Crist (R) asks to submit questionnaires for the appointment.
A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll shows state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) leading state Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Alex Sink 43-34 in the race to replace Crist. Crist's approval is at 67 percent, while his disapproval is at 27 percent. There are no head-to-head numbers in the Senate race, for some reason.
Former Colorado Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) emerges as a potential addition to the field looking to face appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). With no big names yet in the race and former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) unsure of whether he'll jump in, Norton could wind up being the frontrunner.
In related news, Public Policy Polling just released a survey showing Bennet has a 31-38 approval-disapproval, and Beauprez and the two declared candidates - Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck - also have negative approvals. Bennet trails Beauprez 42-39 but leads Buck 39-35 and Frazier 38-33.
Connecticut state Sen. Dan Debicella (R) will take the reins from his state Senate colleague, John McKinney, and run against freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.). But with McKinney declining to run, Republicans now face a primary, with former state Sen. Bob Russo also declaring his candidacy. Not great news with an August primary and an expensive media market, but at least Republicans will have a reputable nominee.
The latest word from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) on when she'll resign from the Senate seems to be sometime after Sept. 30. "I haven't set a timetable because there are certain things that I need to do," she said Monday. "The end of the fiscal year is Sept. 30 and I've got huge responsibilities for Texas that I have to fulfill by Oct. 1." Resigning after late September, of course, would also push the special election to May of next year, versus November of this year. And Republicans would prefer that.
Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) has cultivated a reputation for saying what he thinks, even if it's not necessarily what you want to hear. And his support for a single-payer health care system is Exhibit A.
But at the recent Netroots Nation event in Pittsburgh, that style might have handed his 2010 opponent a fantastic talking point.
While discussing single-payer with those in attendance, Massa noted that his upstate district is "one of the most right-wing, Republican districts in the country." (That's arguable. While the registration leans heavily toward the GOP, it has been a swing district in the last few races for president.)
He then registered a soundbite that almost seems destined for a campaign commercial.
He was asked whether he would vote for a single-payer option if most of his constituents were against it -- which could very well be the case.
"I will vote adamantly against the interests of my district if I actually think what I'm doing is going to help," Massa said.
When someone asked him to clarify his remarks, Massa elaborated: "I will vote against their opinion if I actually believe it will help them."
While Massa's stance might be commendable to the outside observer, people in his district might feel differently.
Republicans have signed up Corning Mayor Tom Reed to run against Massa.
Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) has a small lead over two potential Democratic opponents in the 2010 Illinois Senate race, according to a new poll released Monday.
Kirk took a 41-38 lead over Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) in a Rasmussen poll conducted last week. 17 percent of Illinois voters said they were unsure who they would favor, while four percent said they would prefer some other candidate.
By contrast, the centrist Republican commanded a wider margin over Chicago Urban League CEO Cheryle Jackson. 47 percent would favor Kirk in that matchup, while 30 percent would favor Jackson. Again, 17 percent said they were undecided, with six percent preferring another candidate.
According to the poll, Kirk has a 55-28 favorable/unfavorable rating with -- again, 17 percent -- not sure. Giannoulias has a 51-33 rating.
The poll, conducted August 11, has a 4.5 percent margin of error.
Check out my analysis of early self-funders in the 2010 election cycle. Hint: there are a lot.
In the latest sign that he's serious about challenging former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte in the GOP Senate primary, former gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne will go up with a website later this week.
Some GOP names surface to replace Senate candidate Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) in the House: stock market analyst Dick Green, former congressional aide Bill Cadigan and businessman Bob Dold.
Republicans are still seeking some direction against Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), with state House Speaker Larry Cretul (R) taking a pass.
The San Jose Mercury-News tees up Boxer vs. Fiorina - the next big Senate race of the 2010 election cycle.
Smells like a rumor: A mystery Democrat with means and renown is apparently "75 percent" ready to challenge Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa).
Missouri state Sen. Bill Stouffer (R) formed a federal campaign committee last week for the race for Rep. Ike Skelton's (D-Mo.) seat. He will face former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler in the primary for the right to face Skelton.
Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker (D) emerges as an option to face Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.).
Another basically unknown Republican - in this case, basketball-coach son Danny Tarkanian, has a poll showing them leading Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.).
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