Congressional Campaigns

  August 12, 2009, 12:46 pm

GOP NY special election candidate tends to ill father

By Aaron Blake
The congressional campaign of New York state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) issued a statement Wednesday saying that her father has been hospitalized and that her special election campaign will be temporarily suspended.

The situation doesn't appear to have much of an impact on the race for Army Secretary nominee John McHugh's (R-N.Y.) upstate House seat. Scozzafava's campaign indicated that nothing changes for her on the political front.

The statement follows:
Mr. William Scozzafava, father of Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, was admitted to Upstate Medical Center University Hospital with chest pains and is scheduled to undergo bypass surgery sometime today. Dede is en-route to the hospital to be with her father and any campaign related activities are on hold. Dede and her family appreciate the thoughts and prayers of so many during this difficult time.
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  August 11, 2009, 6:12 am

Friendly poll shows NV GOP chairwoman beating Reid

By Aaron Blake
A new GOP poll shows Nevada state Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden defeating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), 48-42, in a head-to-head matchup.

The Vitale and Associates poll was commissioned by supporters of Lowden who are trying to lure her into the race against Reid should Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) opt not to run.

Apart from Heller, the field to face Reid is full of a bunch of no-names. But even polling on those candidates has shown a competitive race with Reid.

Lowden's lead is interesting, but it's hard to believe a state party chairwoman is really well-known enough to score nearly half of the vote, sight unseen. It also seems unlikely that just 10 percent of voters are undecided 15 months before the election.

More likely, the poll follows the model used by some pollsters which tries to draw out undecided voters to pick a side. Reid is probably somewhere around 42 percent either way, but other polling on the race would probably show Lowden much lower and undecideds higher.

Reid's favorability in the poll is at 39 percent, while 34 percent of voters say they will vote to reelect him. Those numbers are in line with other polling on the race.

The poll also tested Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), who has seen his favorability tumble after revelations about an affair with a staffer. Ensign is viewed favorably by 40 percent of voters - just one point higher than the perpetually unpopular Reid - and unfavorably by 46 percent.
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  August 11, 2009, 5:05 am

State senator to run against Himes

By Aaron Blake
Republicans dealing with the aftermath of state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney's (R) surprising decision not to run against freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) have landed another state senator to fill to void.

From the Connecticut Post:
State Sen. Dan Debicella on Monday filed documents with the Secretary of the State, kicking off his campaign to challenge first-term U.S. Rep. Jim Himes for the 4th Congressional District of southwestern Connecticut in 2010.

Debicella, R-Shelton, a second-term lawmaker who is the ranking member of the budget-setting Appropriations Committee, has used his business-school credentials to become the voice of the Senate minority caucus against Democratic plans to raise taxes.

Debicella, 34, joins political novice Will Gregory, 24, of New Canaan, in the GOP field angling for the right to unseat Himes, who in the Obama landslide last November, became the first Democrat to represent the 4th Congressional District since 1969.

During a Monday interview with Hearst's Connecticut Newspapers, Debicella said he wants to be a moderate voice in Washington.

An assistant vice president of marketing at The Hartford Financial Services, Debicella said that partisan ideology seems to be obscuring potential solutions to economic crisis; making the health-care system less expensive for consumers and bettering the state's transportation infrastructure.

"We need someone who is going to be a practical problem-solver to improve the quality of life for families in Fairfield County," he said. "We need a congressperson who's going to take a moderate course to actually get something done."
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  August 11, 2009, 4:34 am

Corzine closes a bit on Christie

By Aaron Blake
New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) has gained a little bit of ground on former U.S. attorney Chris Christie in the this year's Garden State gubernatorial race, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll.

The newest Q poll shows Corzine within single digits, trailing a one-on-one matchup with Christie 51-42 and a three-way matchup that includes independent Christopher Daggett 46-40. Daggett takes 7 percent.

A month ago, Corzine trailed those matchups 53-41 and 47-38, respectively, so he closed each gap by three points.

It's hardly a massive shift, of course, and it falls just outside the poll's margin of error, so there might not actually be much of a shift. But for the Corzine camp, which has seen polling get progressively worse for months, the latest is a good sign.
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  August 11, 2009, 4:18 am

Moran opens lead on Tiahrt

By Aaron Blake
The latest poll on the Senate primary between Reps. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) shows Moran opening up a statistically significant lead over his House colleague.

Previous polls have been within the margin of error, but Moran leads the latest SurveyUSA poll 38-32. Many voters remain undecided, but Moran seems to have gained ground in the polls while winning the fundraising battle as well.

Moran raised more than $520,000 in the second quarter, while Tiahrt raised slightly less than $400,000. Moran also began with more money from his House account and holds a substantial advantage in cash on hand.

The primary, for now at least, is the de facto general election for Sen. Sam Brownback's (R-Kan.) seat. Brownback is running for governor.
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  August 10, 2009, 7:56 am

Seals with big early edge, but will history repeat?

By Aaron Blake
For the second straight cycle, Democratic congressional candidate Dan Seals has released a poll his campaign paid for showing him with a huge early primary lead in the race for Rep. Mark Kirk's (R-Ill.) House seat.

In the latest effort, conducted by Anzalone-Liszt, Seals leads state Rep. Julie Hamos 63-8, while attorney Elliot Richardson takes 2 percent of the vote.

Here's why it's a good sign for Seals:

-His poll in late 2007 showed him leading former Clinton administration official Jay Footlik 54-6. And even though Footlik raised decent money for the race, Seals wound up winning 81-19.

-There figures to be even more primary opponents this time, and with Seals maintaining high name recognition and the goodwill of Democratic voters, he could be something of a de facto incumbent, with the rest of the field splitting the anti-incumbent vote.

Here's why that won't necessarily be the case:

-With Kirk running for Senate, the race is for an open seat now, and Democratic leaders have even more incentive to make sure they have the best nominee possible. If they jump behind somebody else, that could pose big problems for Seals.

-Even if party leaders don't get involved (in Chicago??!!), because it's for an open seat, the race will be more high-profile, and Seals's opponents will probably raise even bigger money than Footlik's $600,000. Footlik's total was decent, but it wasn't big money in the Chicago media market.
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  August 10, 2009, 7:13 am

Schiff raises $800k in a month

By Aaron Blake
Connecticut investment advisor Peter Schiff (R) has raised more than $800,000 in the first four weeks of his exploratory Senate committee, his campaign announced Monday.

The total is more than former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) and former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R) raised in the entire three-month second quarter; Simmons raised $750,000, while Foley raised $530,000 after entering the race with about a month to go. It also serves as notice that Schiff will pose, at the very least, a well-funded alternative in the GOP primary to face Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.).

Schiff's total includes $330,000 in the last four days - much of it thanks to a so-called moneybomb, in which supporters wait until the same time to register their contributions. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), another libertarian-leaning GOPer whom Schiff advised during last year's presidential primary, used a similar technique to raise large sums of money.

Schiff's challenge will be turning that money into a campaign with a realistic chance of winning, which is something Paul didn't have.

As exploratory committee's go, Schiff's fundraising is tremendous. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) raised about $600,000 for his exploratory campaign in the second quarter, and Schiff's four-week total would be a solid quarter for many top Senate candidates around the country.
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  August 10, 2009, 6:30 am

Cornyn booed at health care event

By Aaron Blake


National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (R-Texas) last week said the town hall anger across the country made his job easier, but for at least the second time in recent weeks, Cornyn himself was on the receiving end of some of that anger.

The end of this local report on Cornyn touring a health care facility in central Texas shows a crowd booing and states that the jeers were directed at Cornyn as he departed.

This comes just a month after a different kind of crowd at an Independence Day tea party event booed Cornyn and called him a traitor for supporting the federal bailout last year.

One of the best things Democrats can do to fight back against their perceived town hall vulnerabilities is to show that Republicans are getting hit as well. Democrats have still been on the receiving end of more of the hostility, but look for them to point to episodes like the Cornyn one as proof that this is really the right's fringe acting out and, in some cases, eating its own.
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  August 6, 2009, 4:23 pm

Schiff up with Senate site, raises $465k

By Aaron Blake
Connecticut investment advisor Peter Schiff (R) is up with a new website for his exploratory Senate campaign (www.schiffforsenate.com), and the site reports he has already raised $465,000 online for his bid.

Schiff is one of four Republicans running for the right to face Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) next year, and he looks to be successfully tapping many of the libertarian-leaning donors who helped long shot presidential candidate Ron Paul raise big money for his campaign. Schiff served as an adviser to Paul's campaign.

Like Paul, Schiff has been the beneficiary of a series of one-day fundraising moneybombs, in which donors all wait until a single day to donate to a campaign in hopes of making a splash in the news. Another one is being held Friday that Schiff's team hopes will raise more than $200,000.

The money raised online by Schiff puts him right up there, moneywise, with the two leading GOP Senate candidates. In the second quarter, former Rep. Rob Simmons raised $750,000, while former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley raised $530,000.
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  August 5, 2009, 9:08 am

DCCC ups August campaign against GOP lawmakers

By Michael O'Brien
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) expanded its "Health Care ER" offensive against Republicans to 11 more lawmakers on Wednesday.

The DCCC launched automated phone calls against potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents, building on its August campaign which saw the Democratic campaign arm air radio ads in the districts of eight other Republicans.

The call tells listeners to ask their congressman "to stop standing up for insurance companies and start standing up for us."

The new phase is part of a multi-pronged strategy to punish lawmakers opposed to healthcare reform before Congress reconvenes in September to take up high-stakes votes on the reform efforts.

The lawmakers targeted by the calls are: Reps. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), David Dreier (R-Calif.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.), Mike McCaul (R-Texas), Frank Wolf (R-Va.), Bill Young (R-Fla.), Judy Biggert (R-Ill.), Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.), and Pete Sessions (R-Texas).

"This August, we are holding Republicans accountable," said DCCC Executive Director Jon Vogel. "America's families sitting around the kitchen table worrying about how they can afford health care need action in the form of President Obama
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