Congressional Campaigns

Democrats' efforts to defeat Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) could be getting a little more difficult.

Bob Anderson, the Independence Party candidate from 2008 who took 10 percent of the vote, is looking at running for the seat again, according to an entry on his blog. Bachmann was held below 50 percent of the vote last year, and Democrats believe Anderson split up the anti-incumbent vote.

Third-party candidates in Minnesota have a long history of fairing relatively well (see: Ventura, Jesse), so it's feasible Anderson could again take a significant chunk of the vote that would otherwise go to the challenger. Another Independence Party candidate took 8 percent of the vote in the district in 2006, when Bachmann took 50 percent.

Democrats still have to figure out their side of the ledger, where state Sen. Tarryl Clark, physician Maureen Reed and 2008 nominee El Tinklenberg are all running. All are expected to seek the Independence Party's endorsement, which Tinklenberg had in 2008. But even if they got it, they couldn't appear on more than one line, and Anderson could still make the ballot, as he did in 2008.

Reed, it should be noted, was an Independence Party nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006, and her ticket took more than 6 percent of the vote.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) may be looking at a tough reelection challenge from former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, if one poll released Friday is to be believed.

45 percent of Californians said they'd support Boxer in a matchup with Fiorina in a Rasmussen poll -- well below the 50 percent threshold considered healthy for incumbent candidates.

41 percent of Californians told pollsters they'd support Fiorina, while seven percent were undecided.

The poll comes on the heels of a few bits of bad news for Boxer as of late, including her controversial confrontation with the leader of the U.S. Black Chamber of Commerce at a committee meeting, and an unflattering profile depicting her as aggressive and demanding.

Boxer was first elected in 1992, and would face reelection next year.

The poll, conducted July 22, has a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) is in Washington today as she cues up a run for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.).

The Hill's Walter Alarkon saw Ayotte walking with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman John Cornyn (R-Texas) this afternoon.

A source said she is "introducing herself to Senators, committee staff and others as part of the exploration process."

Ohio state Rep. Todd Book (D) announced Thursday that he is entering the race against Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) in 2010.

Book joins David Krikorian in the Democratic primary. Krikorian ran for the seat as an independent in 2008, taking a higher percent than any other independent running for federal office.

"In these tough times, the people of Southwest Ohio deserve a Representative who will be independent, work with both parties to solve problems, and stand up for Ohio values in Washington," Book said in a statement. "In the State House I have been an independent voice, and unafraid to roll up my sleeves and get to work on the issues most important to Ohio families. That is exactly the kind of leadership I will bring to Washington."

Schmidt holds one of the most Republican districts targeted by Democrats, but she has struggled to hold it in recent election cycles after winning a closer-than-expected special election in 2005 over Iraq veteran Paul Hackett.

Democrat Victoria Wulsin has lost each of the last two races in the district, but Schmidt was held to 50 percent or below in both races.

Krikorian raised a modest $60,000 in the second quarter.

It sounds like the Republican nominee in the upcoming New York special election can pretty much forget about the Conservative Party endorsement.

Less than 24 hours after she was named the party's candidate, there has already been much made about Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) socially liberal positions on abortion and gay marriage, but New York Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long said it goes beyond even that.

He noted that she scored a 15 out of 100 on the party's conservative rankings recently, while liberal icon and Democratic state House Speaker Sheldon Silver scored a 10.

"While she is a pleasant person, philosophically it's a very, very difficult lift for the party leaders to move in that direction," Long said, noting that he had talked to many party leaders about her.

Long said that state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, a centrist who is the favorite for the Democratic nomination in the race, actually has a more palatable record than Scozzafava.

He noted that the party has been disappointed in Aubertine's votes on tax issues, but he wouldn't rule out endorsing Aubertine either.

"He is pro-life, from my understanding, and he is for the sanctity of marriage," Long said. "But on the issues of taxes and spending, he went down the wrong road."

Long promised that the Conservative Party would run a candidate in the special election. He noted that party activist Jim Kelly has shown interest in running.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has expanded its list of vulnerable members who it will focus its incumbent retention program on.

The NRCC added 15 members to its Patriot program Wednesday, and they join the 10 members who were originally put on the list.

The new members are Reps. Mike Rogers (Ala.), Mary Bono Mack (Calif.), Bill Posey (Fla.), Tom Rooney (Fla.), Mario Diaz-Balart (Fla.), Lynn Jenkins (Kan.), John Fleming (La.), Bill Cassidy (La.), Michele Bachmann (Minn.), Blaine Luetkemeyer (Mo.), Lee Terry (Neb.), Scott Garrett (N.J.), Dean Heller (Nev.), Charlie Dent (Pa.) and Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.).

Posey, Rooney, Jenkins, Fleming, Cassidy, Luetkemeyer and Lummis are all freshman. The others were targeted by Democrats in 2008, with mixed results.

There are a few curious absences from the list so far.

One is Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.). Several of the new Patriots had opponents raise big money against them in the second quarter, and Castle did too. Take it as a sign that the party believes there's little chance he will be seeking reelection.

Another is Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.). Young comes from a tough district and has a solid opponent, yet seemingly less vulnerable members with no opponents are still being added to the list before him. Could be a sign of retirement.

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) has extended his lead in Connecticut's Senate race, even though Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-Conn.) approval rating is improving slightly.

The newest Quinnipiac poll shows Simmons leading 48-39, up from 45-39 in the same poll in late May. Over that same span, Dodd's approval rating has gone from 38 percent positive and 53 percent negative to 42 and 52, respectively.

We've talked plenty about Dodd recovering his good name, but even if he does to some extent, does that necessarily mean Simmons couldn't beat him anyways?

The survey is the latest bit of good polling news for the GOP, which learned Wednesday that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) was in a virtual tie with Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.). Former Rep. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) has also closed the gap slightly in recent weeks in Ohio's open Senate race.

Dodd remains Republicans' top incumbent target for 2010, but before he's matched up with Simmons, the former congressman faces primary competition.

The poll found that he starts out with a large lead in the primary, taking 42 percent while no other candidate takes more than 5 percent. Still, former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley raised significant money in the second quarter and could pose a threat to Simmons in the primary.

Democrats appear to have landed a major recruit to run against Rep Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), as Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan is reportedly preparing to challenge the incumbent in 2010.

The Allentown Morning Call's Josh Drobnyk cites unnamed sources in reporting that an announcement that Callahan will run is expected soon

Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan will run for Congress against Republican incumbent Charlie Dent in 2010, sources say, setting up a political battle the likes of which the Lehigh Valley hasn't seen in 17 years.

The two-term mayor has made his decision clear to Democratic Party leaders in Pennsylvania and Washington and is preparing to put a campaign team in place. An official announcement is expected soon.

The decision is a recruiting coup for national Democrats, who for years have been urging Callahan to challenge Dent. It pegs the 15th District contest as one of the national races to watch next year.

Lehigh County Democratic Committee Chairman Rick Daugherty didn't confirm the report, but he said Wednesday that Callahan "sounds interested" and probably will run for the seat.

Dent's seat has been high on the Democrats' list for some time due to its Democratic lean, but they have been unable to land good challengers in recent years and Dent has easily won reelection.

Callahan has resisted entreaties to run for the seat in the past, but now that he is entering the tail end of his first full term as mayor, he appears ready to take on Dent.

Dent's seat is one of just nine with a Democratic tendency that is still held by Republicans, according to the Cook Political Report. Democrats have already landed top candidates for similar seats held by Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) and outgoing Reps. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), and they are sure to have a top contender to run against Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.) too.

Those seats will allow Democrats to play plenty of offense in 2010, which is otherwise expected to be a defensive election.

The Allentown-based district went for President Obama by a 56-43 margin, but Dent won easily, 59-41, over Democrat Sam Bennett.

The GOP primary path just got a little clearer for former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.

Businessman Fred Tausch, who has hired former staffers for ex-Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) and made a number of overtures about the Senate race, announced Wednesday that he will not run.

Ayotte could still face opposition from former gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne, but Tausch's personal wealth loomed as a potentially bigger roadblock to Ayotte.

Ayotte formed an exploratory committee for a Senate run earlier this week, just days after she resigned as attorney general.

Tausch has been making a name for himself with an advertising campaign called STEWARD, which was seen as a precursor to his possible Senate run. With the ad campaign, he took aim at President Obama's fiscal policies and Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.), the likely Democratic Senate nominee.

Tausch said it was simply not the right time and that Ayotte's candidacy had no effect on him.

A new poll shows former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) has closed a 20-point gap on Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) in a matter of just two and a half months, and that the two are virtually tied.

The Quinnipiac poll, released Wednesday, shows Specter leading Toomey 45-44 in a virtual tie. In early May, shortly after Specter's party switch, he led Toomey 53-33.

Nearly half - 49 percent - of voters say Specter doesn't deserve reelection, while 40 percent say he does. Independent voters have shifted to Toomey's side by a 46-42 margin.

The switch hasn't been completely smooth for Specter, beginning with some curious comments that still reflected some allegiance with Republicans and, more recently, some grumbling about his tough tone with Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor.

The poll showed Specter still performs well in the Democratic primary against Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), leading him 55-23. But Sestak remains unknown to much of the state.

Between the closing poll numbers and Toomey's strong $1.6 million fundraising quarter, it might be time to start looking at this race as competitive. The race fell off the radar a bit when former Gov. Tom Ridge (R) opted not to run following Specter's party switch.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) gave Toomey a vote of confidence with their endorsement recently, so perhaps it has started to see an opening here.