The general media consensus has been that after the healthcare dust settles, some kind of reform will likely pass.
But former Senate Majority Leader and healthcare wonk Tom Daschle isn't so sure.
Appearing on Meet the Press this morning, Daschle said the chances of reform are no better than "50-50."
(Daschle, of course, was President Obama's first choice for Health and Human Services Secretary but bowed out after a flury of tax problems.)
Daschle's comments hint at a strategic question underlying the healthcare debate. The White House seems intent on declaring victory when all this is over, but how much are they willing to water down a reform bill just to get SOMETHING passed?
Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) said Sunday that the Senate Finance Committee may not make a mid-September deadline for reaching an agreement.
He said the six senators on the panel who are working on a compromise have agreed to "be ready when we're ready," While Conrad said they hope to reach a conclusion by mid-September, they won't be bound by that timeframe.
"This is not something that should be held hostage to any specific deadline," he said.
More from the Centrist Democrat Town Hall Dispatches: Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), a leading Blue Dog Democrat, got a standing ovation at his town hall today for his work to delay a vote on healthcare reform.
"I led an effort, and stood up to President Obama and Speaker Pelosi, and we won, delaying any floor vote on healthcare reform to September at the earliest," Ross said to loud applause.
But the meeting wasn't entirely civil. Attendees aimed their fire more at each other than Ross. Watch the video below:
Despite rumors to the contrary, French speaking Bolsheviks will NOT be determining what healthcare you receive, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) guaranteed today.
"People think there's a bunch of Bolsheviks in Washington who won't be satisfied until health care is delivered by doctors who speak with a British or French accent," Bennet said at a town hall today, according to the Vail Daily. "It's just not true."
It's a colorful example, but it also illustrates that Democrats like Bennet realize how passionate some of their conservative constituents are about opposing Democratic healthcare reform.
But that doesn't mean the opposition is a majority. The crowd at Bennet's event "appeared to be split about 50-50 along partisan lines," according to at least one reporter's eyeball account.
Rep. Collin Peterson's (D-Minn.) town hall today seems like a pretty good example of what centrist Democrats are facing.
More than 300 people filled the meeting to capacity, with an additional 100 listening from two overflow rooms. Even more were turned away all together, according to reports.
Constituents waited up to 30 minutes for the chance to ask Peterson a question.
Peterson, by the way, is a pretty interesting case. He's a conservative Democrat who last tussled with his leadership over climate change legislation, threatening to take down the bill by marshaling all the Democrats on his Agriculture Committee to vote against it if significant changes weren't made. (Pelosi, et al, eventually mollified his concerns.)
But he said Friday that he doesn't support any of the current bills. He told the crowd in Willmar that he will hold out for a provision that would end the geographic disparities that penalize Minnesota and other lower-cost states with less Medicare reimbursement.
That's a logical position that gives Peterson flexibility to tip in either direction when the time comes.
The question for conservative Democrats like Peterson is, even if part of them realizes the town-hallers aren't representative of the country (or their districts), can they bring themselves to ignore crowds of this size?
President Obama insisted Friday he's not trying to vilify insurers in his bid to overhaul the nation's healthcare system, subtly breaking with one of the House's top leaders.
Obama said during a town hall meeting this afternoon that he's not seeking to make insurers into a bogeyman, just over two weeks after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called insurance companies "villains" in the national discussion over health reform, and just over a week after his own political arm chided insurers.
Facing a question from a Montanan who sells individual health insurance policies, the president denied that he is trying to turn the powerful insurance industry into a bogeyman in the debate over heath reform.
"My intent is not to vilify the insurance companies," Obama said in his Montana town hall.
"If I was vilifying them, what we would be doing would be to say that private insurance has no place in the health care market, and some people believe that," the president added. "I don't believe that."
Those words contrast a bit with those made by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) earlier this summer. Pelosi accused insurers of a "carpet-bombing" campaign against reform, and said the companies were immoral for engaging in their campaign against reform.
"It's almost immoral what they are doing," Pelosi said in late July. "They are the villains. They have been part of the problem in a major way. They are doing everything in their power to stop a public option from happening."
The president's words toward insurers may also be a bit inconsistent with messaging dispatched by his political arm, Organizing for America. That group, which is administered by the Democratic National Committee, accused insurance companies of using "scare tactics" to "incite" unruly protests in town halls over the August recess.
President Obama will face tough but respectful questions in Montana today, the state's Democratic governor predicted Friday.
Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) said he expects citizens to air their opinions at a town hall meeting with the president this afternoon, but do so in a civil way.
"People in Montana are going to be respectful," he said in an interview on CNN radio. "One of the things you can be sure of is that people in Montana have opinions, and they're going to air them."
Many lawmakers have faced angry confrontations with constituents at their own town halls, while Obama received a warmer audience during a town hall in New Hampshire this week.
Many political observers are looking forward to Obama's Montana town hall today, where the distribution of tickets could lead to a more raucous confrontation with the president.
The White House said Friday that it'd distributed the 1,300 tickets for the town hall to people on a first come, first served bases, with the remainder given to elected officials and community leaders.
President Obama's town hall meetings have been "manufactured" with more favorable audiences, Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Steele suggested Friday.
"Despite what is seen at the president's manufactured town halls, fewer and fewer Americans are supporting government control of health care," Steele said in advance of Obama's town hall meeting in Montana today. "Like Old Faithful, the president's performances simply make for a good show."
While many lawmakers have faced angry confrontations with constituents at their own town halls, Obama received a warmer audience during a town hall in New Hampshire this week.
While the RNC doesn't believe the president has "stacked the deck" with a friendly audience, one official said Friday, the GOP doesn't necessarily feel the president's audience was representative of many citizens' dyspepsia over healthcare.
Many political observers are looking forward to Obama's Montana town hall today, where the distribution of tickets -- first come, first served -- could lead to a more raucous confrontation with the president.
"As President Obama takes his traveling road show to Montana, Colorado, and Arizona, Americans simply aren't buying his efforts to repackage his government-run experiment," Steele said.
One lawmaker invoked the controversial conservative television host Glenn Beck in a town hall meeting, deriding claims about healthcare reform fueled by the pundit.
Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) defended the healthcare proposal before Congress during a town hall meeting at a baseball stadium Wednesday night. During that meeting, he suggested a constituent's worries were fueled by the work of Beck, who has made angry and occasionally strange allegations about Democrats' healthcare reform initiatives.
"With regards to the first comment about being forced to buy healthcare...the bill does not force people to change their healthcare plan," Larsen said in response to a question about whether the health bill would nationalize healthcare.
"Folks will say that's not true, but I've got facts on my side, and you've got Glenn Beck on your side," Larsen quipped.
Larsen insisted that Americans would only be forced to participate in the healthcare exchange, and not forced to change their plan.
The Washington Democrat had actually moved his town hall to his city's minor league baseball stadium over concerns about the turnout for the district meeting.
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