Campaign

As we know, President Obama’s puzzling performance in the first presidential debate was roundly criticized. Depending on the news source, Obama was characterized as laconic, listless, tired, defeated, lazy or worse. As the handwringing continues, Obama supporters have rushed into the lurch with more advice than one can shake a stick at. All seem to coalesce around the rather basic idea that he must be more aggressive and spirited in the next two debates. Obama seems to have taken some of that advice to heart. On the stump the very next day after the debate, he contrasted the person sharing the stage with him with “the real Mitt Romney” who has been campaigning for over a year. 

For the president’s supporters, that might be a good sign. But the first debate revealed a much deeper set of problems and choices the Obama campaign faces as it retools for the next two debates. 

First, the problem. The fact is that during the first debate Obama simply forgot the basics of debate strategy. 

There was considerable discussion during last night’s debate about what Mitt Romney would or would not do on Day 1 of his presidency, and whether Day 1 would be Inauguration Day or the day after the election on November 6th. It remains a mystery why the President would cede this rhetorical possibility to his opponent (Obama: “Well, first of all, I think Governor Romney's going to have a busy first day,”) but it is in fact an important consideration to ponder. Presidential transitions are fraught with the complexity of changing the leadership of a massive federal government and the secrecy imposed by Washington superstitions. So what do we know about what occur on that Day 1?

In 2008, then-Senator Barak Obama ran as a self-proclaimed candidate of change. A mantra of ‘hope’ and promise of fresh leadership in Washington was understandably appealing for voters hungry for a new direction. His inspiring words gave Americans reason to believe that a new political era was about to emerge based on sober analysis and mutual cooperation.
 
Sadly, the change never came. Out of the gate, Mr. Obama approved a stimulus bill written by Congressional Democratic leaders that lacked coherent focus and bipartisan support. He then signed into law a massive healthcare reform cobbled together behind closed doors that was ironically named the ‘Affordable Care Act’. His attempt to mend foreign relationships has strained our dealings with Russia, Poland and Israel. All the while, his administration takes credit for new domestic oil production and free trade agreements he played no part in brokering. 

We talk a lot about politicians’ appearances. President Obama’s suits, Mitt Romney’s perfect hair, Paul Ryan’s abs, and Hillary Clinton’s make-up. Even their spouses’ dresses got tongues wagging at the recent political conventions.
 
While conversation about politicians’ appearances can distract from discussion of their policies, both aspects are important. Economist Daniel Hamermesh has found that voters favor politicians who they find better-looking than their opponents. A polished appearance projects confidence - that even in a stressful situation you can hold yourself together.  And no candidate knows this better than the beauty queen.
 
This fall, three Miss America contestants will face their toughest competitions yet: runs for political office. There’s Shelli Yoder, Miss Indiana 1992 and second runner-up to Miss America, who secured the Democratic nomination to run for U.S. Congress in the Ninth District of Indiana.

Florida has a population of more than 19 million people. Our residents have lived in the state for generations, they came to Florida from other states to start their lives or to enjoy their retirement, and many have come from other countries for economic and political reasons to pursue the American dream.  We have Southerners in the North, transplanted Northerners in the South and hardworking people throughout the state, trying to raise their families and live their lives as best and as successfully as they can.
 
Florida’s demographic breakdown closely mirrors that of the United States as a whole, making the Sunshine State a populous and important bellwether in any national election. As Florida goes, so goes the country — not only because of a plethora of electoral votes, but because as a large and diverse state, we capture the pulse of the nation.

We have seen a lot of polls of the middle class in the last three years, including one that Allstate, the company I work for, recently fielded. Indeed, Allstate, under the banner of the Heartland Monitor series, has polled well over 15,000 average Americans in the last three years.

When we took our first poll in March of 2009 things were very grim. More than eight million people had just lost their jobs; the Dow had dropped from 14,000 in 2007 to 6,600; banks were shedding toxic assets in excess of a trillion dollars; and, people’s homes were shedding equity at an even greater rate.

Since we are a company made up of thousands of agency owners and employees and 16 million customers, almost all of whom self-identify as middle class, and since our mission is to protect them from life’s uncertainties and to prepare them for the future, standing on the sidelines was not an option for us. We wanted to both know what was happening to them and help give them a voice.

Florida will play a key role in what will probably be one of the most important elections in our nation’s history. At stake is the presidency, control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, the Florida state legislature, key amendments to Florida’s constitution, numerous judicial contests and many local offices.

As we are now the third largest state in the nation, all eyes will be on us as we vote in this election. Our state has now over 11 million registered voters and I know that we have the commitment to excellence that sets us apart from others. Florida is by far the most important of the battleground states having the largest number of electoral votes – 29. It also now has one of the largest congressional delegations at 27 members including two new districts that which will be filled in this election for the first time.

Federal sequestration cuts are expected to dramatically affect funding for all areas of health care research. But nowhere, perhaps, would the effect be more chilling than in  the still-fledgling field of lupus research.

The automatic cuts would become effective January 2, 2013, unless Congress intervenes, and would sharply curtail the pipeline of research funds flowing to scientists through the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Food and Drug Administration. As physicians who have devoted our careers to biomedical/clinical research, we are worried about the effect the cuts will have on the very recent but hopeful progress that has been made in lupus research, and also on the viability of our academic institutions and others like them around the United States. 

You hear the axiom all the time: as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. But it’s an axiom for a reason — because it’s true. It is rare that the path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue has not wound through the buckeye battleground. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio and only twice since 1896 has a Democrat become president without doing so. 2012 will be no different as Ohio’s 18 electoral votes are a must-win for both campaigns. Electoral urgency is demonstrated by the fact that Ohio is a popular place to come during an election year — and during other years as well.

The candidates and their surrogates visit places like Maumee and Beallsville, Toledo and Sandusky, Mansfield and Parma, not to price out real estate or scout out vacation spots but to shop for votes. In 2012, President Barack Obama has traveled to Ohio 11 times already (with many more trips to come), second only to Virginia which is just a short jaunt across the Potomac River from the White House. And just this past week, President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney crisscrossed the state holding dueling campaign rallies. But why is Ohio so very popular to the occupants and aspirants of the White House?

This year, Mitt Romney is trying to make history — of a sort. The last victorious presidential candidate who failed to carry his political home state was Woodrow Wilson in 1916, nearly a century ago. But if Romney prevails in the electoral college this November, he will need to do so without the support of Massachusetts, the state he served as governor for four years and the site of his national campaign headquarters. Public opinion surveys of Bay State voters reveal a consistently wide lead for Barack Obama despite the favorite-son status of his Republican opponent, and both sides openly acknowledge that the outcome is not in doubt. Boston-area residents are being subjected this fall to a steady stream of media advertising on behalf of both candidates, but only because our neighbors to the north in the more competitive state of New Hampshire tend to watch our television stations—and thus are the true target audience for the campaigns’ dueling ad blitzes.