Responding to tomorrow's 'Day of Rage' in Yemen

“Yesterday Tunisia! Today Egypt! Tomorrow Yemen!” a small group of Yemeni protesters chanted on Sunday. Gaining inspiration from the popular protests sweeping the Arab world, Yemen is now preparing for its own “Day of Rage,” with massive demonstrations to take place tomorrow. 

As the government of Yemen, the region and the United States brace for this latest exhibit of mass unrest, many are wondering if President Ali Abdullah Salih, the longest standing Arab ruler, will become the next autocrat to lose control of his regime. 

The Republic of Yemen emerged in early 2010 as a priority in the war on terror. It suffers from rampant poverty and unemployment, a youth bulge, severe water shortages and several acute political crises, including the six-year Huthi conflict in its northern provinces, the secessionist Southern Movement in its South, and an emboldened al-Qaeda affiliate. 

Unlike Egypt, which maintained a façade of stability during the thirty year reign of President Hosni Mubarak, Yemen has rarely masqueraded as anything but volatile. Its current predicament has the potential to foment global terrorism, disrupt regional security and lead to the suffering of millions of Yemenis. 

U.S. President Barack Obama immediately recognized the urgency in Yemen, providing over $250 million in aid for FY2010 (the sum total of American aid to Yemen during the Bush administration fell short of $400 million). Yet by fixating on counterterrorism operations and capacity-building for a deeply unpopular government that is unable, or unwilling, to effectively confront the country’s ‘perfect storm’ of problems, the U.S. now faces a crisis in Yemen. 

Popular unrest and demands for change threaten to further undermine the American position in Yemen and indeed, the foundation of its policy in the Arab world as a whole: alliances with corrupt, inept and despotic governments to preserve illusory, short-term security. This reality has struck just as the hand of the American military continues to stretch further into Yemen, working with the Salih regime to combat suspected Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) elements. 

The United States must shift its strategic priorities in light of the unprecedented displays of discontent in the region and their propensity to move to Yemen and create enduring instability. To avoid such an outcome, the Obama administration must embrace two policy paradigm shifts: 

Push the Salih government to pursue extensive systemic reform and political sacrifice. Many Yemenis blame the regime’s incompetence, corruption and principle commitment to the interests of a handful of elites for their economic troubles and diminishing political freedoms. Without addressing these grievances, which resonate across Yemeni society, AQAP will remain able to compete for Yemenis’ loyalties. The administration must exhort its ally to devolve power and build a more representative political system. It must pressure Salih to permit free and fair elections, to recommit to a comprehensive national dialogue with friends and foes alike, and to dismantle patronage networks that drain already diminutive national coffers. 

Prioritize Yemen’s socio-economic, structural and environmental problems through increased development and humanitarian aid. The stability of Yemen is directly tied to the resolution or mitigation of these crises. The U.S. must commit more resources to issues of poverty, malnutrition and economic development (in FY2010, it gave just over $90 million in non-security assistance, compared to roughly $175 million in security aid). American policy in Yemen must strike a balance between short-term security and humanitarian assistance, medium-range development aid, and the resolve to achieve long-term political and economic structural durability. 

The good news is that tomorrow’s demonstrations in Yemen are unlikely to cause the seemingly irreversible levels of upheaval seen elsewhere. 

Unlike Egypt, where Mubarak’s proverbial “writing is on the wall,” the United States still has time to change course in Yemen. A more intentional process of political and structural transformation remains possible, though extremely challenging. By supporting a transition from centralized autocracy to representative democracy, the Obama administration can help preempt the potential for large-scale violence and a power vacuum in Yemen. 

While this process will take years, the administration must also pressure the Salih regime to take proactive and meaningful steps towards accelerated political reform now. This might include forming a transitional unity government to eventually cede power (probably the most dramatic measure) or more likely, building a unity coalition with opposition groups to lead Yemen through the parliamentary elections and 2013 presidential election. 

President Salih did recently announce several concessions in anticipation of tomorrow’s demonstrations, including pledging to resign after his 2013 term and not to pass the presidency to his son. Yet given his long history of broken promises, Yemenis are rightly skeptical. The U.S., therefore, may be forced to hold Salih accountable through its massive aid package.

In the long-term, the Obama administration must deftly negotiate a foreign policy “catch-22” of supporting its Yemeni partner to combat the al-Qaeda threat through security operations, while also pushing him to embrace the people’s demands for sweeping reform and state-building. 

An overemphasis on temporary security will produce an enriched Yemeni minority and reinforce an unpopular regime emboldened to rebuff change and armed to maintain its controversial campaigns against the Huthis and Southern Movement. Meanwhile, Yemen’s systemic crises will escalate, causing many Yemenis to blame the U.S. for its role in propping up the Salih government. 

Popular revolutions throughout the Arab world should signal a stern warning that stubbornly standing with dictators is dangerous. 

Like in Tunisia and Egypt, the United States must side with the people of Yemen. President Salih will not live forever, though the collective memory of Yemenis will. Whether the U.S. chooses to support Yemenis’ longing for self-determination and freedom, or instead resorts to an ossified policy that prioritizes the façade of short-term stability, is now the key question. Its answer will have severe practical implications for American security in Yemen and the region.