Syria: Into the abyss

With Syria already in civil war, the focus must be preventing a sectarian bloodbath and regional spillover. As violence increases dramatically, options must include alternative measures beyond the United Nations Security Council. The logical initial step is an ad hoc coalition of key international players.  However, such a grouping must be prepared to take firm action as dictated by necessity while treading carefully. The unfortunate reality is that a bloody protracted stalemate in Syria can ensue indefinitely. 
 
Furthermore, plans must be made for all types of assistance. But actual aid must be largely determined in proportion to realities on the ground. As civilian casualties mount exponentially, safe-zones and accompanying measures must be tabled sooner rather than later. However, any direct form of military intervention must be a last resort.  Frankly, Syria is not Libya. A geographical image of Syria alone speaks more than a thousand words. Politically, diplomatically and militarily, the Syrian crisis is far more complex and less containable than Libya.
 
Further negotiations at the U.N. Security Council are unlikely to yield concrete dividends anytime soon. Nonetheless, the international community has an obligation to continuously attempt to find ways to reduce violence. Even the remote chance of achieving a temporary breakthrough can spare loss of innocent life.

The Assad regime’s diplomatic dance has largely ended. It will now increasingly unleash the full impact of its war-machine. As violence escalates, national fragmentation along sectarian fault-lines within urban and rural areas will unfold more rapidly. The ability to reverse course is evaporating. Skillfully exploiting sectarian differences has been crucial for regime survival in the Middle East. Its practitioners became over-confident and eventually lost touch with public sentiment. It may have worked for some time but no longer resonates and will inevitably backfire.
 

At this critical juncture, Syria’s opposition, leading regional players and other key actors are unlikely to settle for anything less than regime change.  International criminal investigators have new impetus to pursue regime officials for war crimes. Previous calls for President Assad’s resignation, convening an interim government, elections and a new constitution have floundered.    
 
While the Assad regime still retains overwhelming firepower, the growing insurgency will continue to draw army defectors and ordinary citizens with escalating violence.
 
As regime repression increases, so will the rise of local militias in response. Inevitably, many have limited military experience and training. Furthermore, coordination with other anti-regime forces must drastically improve. However, their profound knowledge of local terrain remains an indispensable asset. A grass-roots guerrilla war of attrition will haunt regime forces. Furthermore, battle-hardened and experienced volunteers and sympathizers from throughout the region and beyond will increasingly join opposition ranks to protect their brethren, whether ethnic or religious.
 
For its own survival and self-preservation, the Assad regime will relentlessly use any means necessary to exploit divisions, and also fabricate them whenever possible. Trying to hold together a diverse nation of over 20 million people presents enormous challenges and risks. Should coordinated uprisings surface simultaneously over time, the task will become practically impossible.
 
The Arab League has provided crucial diplomatic legitimacy during the Syrian crisis. However, logistically it is Turkey that will make the ultimate difference on the ground in Syria.  Its sheer size, influence and long border with Syria make this inevitable. In the emerging coalition of states opposing the Assad regime, Turkey’s role is indispensable.
 
Each of Syria’s neighbors confronts similar but different challenges. Lebanon runs the risk of being directly engulfed into the Syrian conflict. With limited resources and mounting internal challenges, Jordan may be subjected to another wave of refugees. Syrian exiles may eventually join countless Palestinians and Iraqis in calling Jordan home. Syria’s porous border with Iraq provides an open invitation to all forms of unsavory forces to join the fight.  Furthermore, spillover from Syria can further escalate Iraq’s internal rivalries.
 
Regional stability becomes further exposed should the Assad regime eventually teeter on the brink. The classic pattern of engaging external enemies to distract from internal difficulties could unexpectedly surface. Provoking Israel remains a dangerous but potentially useful card, particularly should a confrontation over Iran’s nuclear capability draw closer.
 
Syria’s civil war has opened a regional Pandora’s box unleashing forces that policy-makers will desperately struggle to deal with. Overall, the real crisis has yet to begin in earnest. 

Vicenzino provides geo-political risk analysis and regular commentary on leading global media outlets. He is director of the Global Strategy Project.  

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