Iran's poker face (Rep. Ed Royce)

On Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency voted overwhelmingly to censure Iran over its nuclear program.  The IAEA resolution called on Iran to confirm that it has no other plans to build nuclear facilities.  Well, yesterday Iran answered loud and clear!  It announced plans to build 10 additional uranium enrichment plants the size of its facility at Natanz.

The 10 additional plants could mean over 500,000 centrifuges enriching uranium, the key bomb ingredient.  Reports estimate that this could produce 169 bombs worth of uranium each year.  A top Iranian nuclear official noted that they would be built inside mountains.  Whether or not all this is technically feasible is dubious, but it does give us insight into the dreams of Ahmadinejad.  Iran has also threatened to pull out of the Nonproliferation Treaty, a step only North Korea has taken.  

Twenty-five members of the IAEA's Board of Governors voted for the resolution, while 3 (Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia) voted against.  Azerbaijan was "absent."  In the bathroom, I guess?  Afghanistan, Pakistan, Egypt, South Africa, Turkey and Brazil abstained.  (See my post, "Iranian Samba" on Ahmadinejad's recent trip to Brazil).

The Obama Administration trumpeted the fact that both China and Russia were onboard for the inconsequential rebuke.  China's support followed a report in the Washington Post that two top White House officials traveled to Beijing and warned that if it didn't work with others to pursue a diplomatic end to Iran's nuclear program, then the Israelis might take it into their own hands, seriously roiling energy markets.  The IAEA resolution now gets forwarded to the United Nations.  Whether China and Russia get on board for some real sanctions is another matter.   

According to this morning's Wall Street Journal, several Obama Administration officials “voiced little alarm over the accelerating game of brinkmanship," suggesting it was all Iranian posturing ("Defiant Iran Beefs Up Nuclear Plans.")  "The Iranians play poker," noted an Administration official.

Poker indeed.  Most likely, this is a play by Iran to heighten the sense of crisis surrounding its nuclear program.  Tehran hopes it can create a crisis, and then make "concessions," gaining currency with Moscow and Beijing.  Meanwhile, we return to the status quo ante, with Iran pursuing a nuclear weapons program right under the world's nose.  A high-stakes game, alright.    

Cross-posted from Rep. Royce's Foreign Intrigue Blog.