The Big Question: Who loses if GOP filibusters Senate healthcare bill?

The nation's top political commentators, legislators and intellectuals offer some insight into the biggest question burning up the blogosphere today.

Today's question:

If Republicans successfully filibuster the Democrats' healthcare reform bill, who loses politically? Will Republicans be labeled obstructions or will Democrats be labeled ineffective?

Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) said:

The people lose.  They lose politically, they lose economically, they lose socially and most of all, they lose in quality of life and health.

Ronald Goldfarb, Pundits Blog contributer, said:

Both. And the American public will be fleeced by the moneyed lobbyists.

Rob Richie, executive director of FairVote, said:

The big loser will be the filibuster itself. Republicans are pushing use of the filibuster to an unseemly extreme, while some Democrats are clearly taking advantage of it to shake down the leadership for pet concerns in exchange for a key votes.

As public perception of Congress sinks, senators may finally wake up to the fact they are demeaning the institution -- we have gone to more filibusters in six months than in the entire 19th century. Any success in killing health care based on the filibuster could be the final straw that breaks the filibuster camel's back. By simple majority rule, the Senate might then redefine the filibuster so that it encourages more deliberation, but does not undercut the accountability that comes with final votes on passage being based on majority rule

Armstrong Williams, Pundits Blog contributer, said:

The healthcare reform bill is one of the most sweeping pieces of legislation to come from the Democratic Party in decades. Thus, its failure—which seems increasingly imminent— will be historic. With moderate Democrats joining Sen. Lieberman in threatening to filibuster the bill, it is hard to see how the Democrats will garner the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster.

The major bone of contention is the public option, which would effectively create a government takeover of the health care industry. The Republicans have taken ownership of this issue by stressing how the public option would drive private insurers from the market. For good reason, no one trusts the government to run an industry that is equivalent to one-sixth of American gross domestic product. With little to show for their $787 billion bailout, the electorate is increasingly hesitant to support a bill that could bankrupt the country. In a close legislative battle, people will opt for the status quo. A Republican filibuster will maintain the status quo, and thus seem the most palatable option.

Meanwhile, the administration will look increasingly unable to make progress on any of their legislative agenda. On all fronts, the Democrats are looking incompetent. Americans are no longer so sure about Obama’s ability to
repair the economy, heal the rifts that divide this country, or even to accomplish a smattering of his professed political goals. The inevitable failure of the healthcare bill will be just one more signpost in this administration’s winding road of legislative failures.

Justin Raimondo, editorial director of Antiwar.com, said:

A filibuster would undoubtedly make the Republicans out to be the party of "obstructionists," but then again some things need to be obstructed. I think the underlying unpopularity of healthcare "reform" -- do we really need yet another major entitlement program in the midst of a recession? -- will neutralize the "obstructionist" charge.

And of course the Democrats do have a majority, albeit one that may not be sufficient to overcome a filibuster. Most Americans don't understand arcane Senate rules, however, and so voters will be left wonder: How come the Democrats can't seem to get it together?

I think the momentum for the healthcare "reform" bill is largely gone, and the focus is rapidly shifting. People want to know when the jobs will start coming back, and aren't all that concerned with plunging into largely unknown territory with a multi-thousand page heathcare measure.

Herb London, president of the Hudson Institute, said:

As I see it the country will engage in a collective sigh of relief if Republicans along with nervous nelly Democrats can deep six this bill. Sentiment has been running heavily against it and the races in New Jersey and Virginia have put on the fence Dems in an awkward position. The vote should be close but there are too many controversial dimensions of this bill for passage.

A.B. Stoddard, associate editor for The Hill, said:

A successful Republican filibuster of health care reform would alter the political fortunes of the Democratic party, not the Republican party. The public is split down the middle in support and opposition to reform, with majorities believing that costs will go up as a result of reform and that quality of care isn't likely to improve. Independents are moving out of the Democratic coalition and are now supporting Republicans out of concerns that the Obama administration has expanded government and deficits to unprecedented and dangerous levels. No matter what the health care reform bill looks like the GOP would claim they had stopped an imminent disaster because the Democrats wanted to go too far and that their bill would have done far more harm than good. Would they succeed in stopping reform Republicans would paint the Democrats as beholden to liberal special interests like pro-choice advocates, incapable of governing and unable to deliver on promises. I think independents will believe them.

Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said:

If Republicans kill health care reform with a filibuster, the voters will hold them accountable. It’s hardly a matter of personal opinion what will happen next. Polls show that a public option is popular nationwide, including with political independents, and if Republicans are really heartless enough to smother it in the cradle, they’ll face a backlash they’re not prepared for.

John F. McManus, president of The John Birch Society, said:

If Republicans filibuster the Senate version of the healthcare bill, the biggest winner will be the American people. If the filibuster fails, the biggest winner will be the state-of-mind Marxists who want government to control everything.

As for the political fallout should the filibuster succeed, the Republicans will receive angry responses from people who think it's government's role to take care of everyone. And the Democrats, who are losing support for many other reasons, will lick their wounds while insisting, with customary unfounded name-calling, that un-American right-wing loonies are too powerful. To those who want government healthcare and lots of other government paternalism, I say, "Check out Cuba to see what more than 50 years of such 'care' has accomplished."

Michael J. Wilson, national director of Americans for Democratic Action (ADA), said:

That decision is really up to the American voters. Of COURSE the Republicans are obstructionists (every single Republican in the House – save one – has already voted against health care reform. Isn’t that the definition of groupthink?) But the GOP is gambling that they won’t pay a political price for that intransigence. And if they are able to pick off a GOP-leaning Democrat like Joe Lieberman (who really preferred John McCain for president) of COURSE it will make the Democrats seem ineffective. The institutional problem is that rewarding that kind of behavior is like giving in to a child who is having a tantrum. The symbolic threat that Sen. Minority Leader McConnell will hold his breath until he turns blue is laughable unless he wins. Then the joke is on the American voters.

Bill Press, host of the Bill Press Show, said:

For Republicans to filibuster healthcare reform legislation would be more than short-sighted. It would be suicidal. They are setting themselves up for failure in 2010 and 2012 as the party that opposed Social Security, Medicare, and now, universal healtcare. Thanks to John Boehner and Mitch McConnell, the Republican Party has become the Party of No and the Party of Don't Care.