The Big Question: Should Obama stump for Deeds, Corzine?

Some of the nation's top political commentators, legislators and intellectuals offer their insight on the biggest question burning up the blogosphere and cable news airwaves on Tuesday October 13, 2009.

New polls in The Washington Post and The Richmond Times-Dispatch show Republican Bob McDonnell taking a high single-digit lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia's gubernatorial race.

With less than a month remaining before Election Day, should President Barack Obama campaign for Deeds?

On New Jersey: Should Obama spend more time in New Jersey stumping for former Sen. Jon Corzine?

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said:

Given the polls suggesting the likelihood of a GOP sweep, President Obama's advisers are wondering how much effort they should expend for Creigh Deeds. The candidate hasn't helped his cause by irritating the White House and keeping his distance from Obama. With Gov. Jon Corzine (D) showing signs of life in New Jersey, the temptation will be to put all of Obama's chips on the Garden State.

But that's a mistake. There are only two governorships on the ballot this year. Obama will be held accountable for the Virginia result whether or not he sets foot again in the commonwealth. The stakes are particularly high since the Old Dominion provided a startling electoral college breakthrough in 2008 that Obama will need to repeat in 2012. Prematurely conceding Virginia to the GOP isn't smart.

It will be very difficult to reverse the tide, but if Obama can bring his old magic back to Virginia, he might confound the polls by reenergizing minorities, the young and suburban independents. Helping Deeds achieve a surprising upset would have tremendous impact politically. At the least, the president's energetic stumping in targeted areas could save some Democratic House of Delegates seats, even if Deeds goes down.

This may seem like small potatoes to a Nobel Peace Prize winner, but the president is still the head of his party. Obama has an obligation to plant the flag, maybe especially in rocky soil. (Cross posted at The Washington Post.)

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor at The Cook Political Report, said:

Overall, a visit from the President can be a major boost, but remember that the boost begins to fade almost immediately and whatever bump a candidate got from a visit usually evaporates within a week. If Obama is going to campaign for either Deeds or Corzine, it’s got to be in the last few days if either Democrat is going to reap any benefit on Election Day.

Yes, making trips into both states presents some political risk for Obama — what does it say about his presidency if the party loses both states after he campaigned there, for example — but this is not a risk-averse White House. If Democrats can credit Obama with helping hold on to one or both states, they may well change the current narrative going into the mid-term elections, making the reward worth the risk.

VA: The President should make another appearance for Deeds late this month to help fire up the base, especially African-American voters. Since Gov. Kaine is DNC chair, the party needs to make every effort to try and close the gap with McDonnell.

NJ: The ad that the Corzine campaign just put up suggests that Democrats feel that they haven’t solidified their base vote yet. Obama could be helpful if he were to campaign with Corzine two or three days before the election.

Tim Potter, director of Government Affairs at FRC Action, said:

I think President Obama would be better served if he campaigned for Corzine. Bob McDonnell’s lead appears to be widening again. Many of the independent voters that gave Obama the win in Virginia this last year have abandoned Deeds. I am sure the President could motivate a few more people to come out in Deeds favor, but it doesn’t look like he would be able to motivate enough to make a difference. In an interesting twist the Democratic candidate attempted to make social issues the most important part of the campaign, while the Republican focused on jobs and transportation. Virginia as a whole is still more conservative on social issues than the Deeds campaign believes. I will be interested to see if his stances on those issues hurt him in the southern and western parts of Virginia.

The race in New Jersey appears to be tightening with the third party candidate pulling votes from Christie. Like Gov. Corzine, President Obama is working with a majority controlling party rife with internal corruption so should understand how to message well in the Garden State. If the President can rally a few more of the faithful to support Corzine, then the Governor will have a good chance at a second term. If Corzine pulls it out the Obama team will be able to earn a split, which was more than it seemed they could hope for a month ago. internal corruption so should understand how to message well in the Garden State.

Herb London, president of the Hudson Institute, said:

Since the president's approval rating has been plummeting, I think he should campaign in Virginia, if for nothing else to get a sense of why the American people are turning against his policies. I don't think the gubernatorial race will hinge on his involvement, but if President Obama does campaign for Deeds, who I anticipate as the loser in this race, it could be a foreshadowing of Democratic electoral fortunes in 2010.

Dr. James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, said:

This is like Copenhagen, but with higher stakes.

Of course he must go. He is the leader of our party and we need to maintain Democratic leadership in both states.

Historically voters in Virginia and New Jersey can be quite ornery, voting for the opposite party from the one in the White House. And while the contours of both contests are ultimately shaped by more by local than national concerns, the GOP will crow about a Democratic loss in either state, whether the President goes or not. The question is, does he lead and fight for friends, or take a pass. My bet is that he goes — as he ought to.

John F. McManus, president of The John Birch Society, said:

The bloom is has faded from the Obama rose. Any campaigning he does for candidates in Virginia or New Jersey will be counterproductive for those candidates. It is sincerely hoped that voters in these states (and throughout the nation) are awakening fully to the destructiveness of the big government and interventionist policies of our current President — and, sad to say, his predecessors.