Obama's job rating was a leading indicator



The most important poll number of the presidential election was not
the trial heats between President Obama and Mitt Romney, the 
day-to-day match-ups that political junkies followed obsessively
 during the long, brutal months of the campaign. The most important
 number was Obama's job rating. It was the magic figure that predicted 
the final outcome.





According to latest returns, Obama captured 50.4% of the popular
vote. His job approval rating going into Election Day, according to
the Clarus Average, was 50%.



Obama's approval rating held steady at 50% between Oct. 30 and Nov.
6, not varying one point. Polls taken during the entire month of
 October -- with its campaign ups and downs, attention-getting debates
 and a massive natural disaster -- showed the president's job approval 
rating at about 50%, never dipping below 49%.



Even when Clarus poll averages reported Romney a couple of points
 ahead of the incumbent in mid-October, with the GOP challenger
 working his way out of a slump and gathering new momentum, Obama's
 job rating stood stubbornly at 50%.



In the end, no matter what either campaign did, this race was a
 referendum on Obama's job performance. Ironically, that's what 
Republicans always wanted and Democrats always feared. 



Now we know.

Faucheux is president of Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan polling company, and he teaches at George Washington University.

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