Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpDems win from coast to coast Falwell after Gillespie loss: 'DC should annex' Northern Virginia Dems see gains in Virginia's House of Delegates MORE and Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzOvernight Finance: GOP criticism of tax bill grows, but few no votes | Highlights from day two of markup | House votes to overturn joint-employer rule | Senate panel approves North Korean banking sanctions GOP criticism of tax bill grows, but few ready to vote against it Anti-gay marriage county clerk Kim Davis to seek reelection in Kentucky MORE (R-Texas) have very loyal supporters compared to the rest of the GOP field.  According to a recent poll of New Hampshire primary voters, 68 percent of Trump’s supporters say they have made up their minds, as have 63 percent of Cruz’s supporters, while less than 50 percent of those who support other candidates are full committed.

This poll was initially seen as great news for Trump.  After it came out, he famously remarked that he could shoot a stranger in the face and it wouldn’t hurt his numbers.  

And while that may be true, if you dig deeper into the raw data of this poll, you will find, perhaps, a driving explanation behind Trump’s defeat in Iowa and the foreshadowing of a loss in New Hampshire: Trump has absurdly low favorability among the not-so-loyal supporters of all of his competitors.

This is even the case for supporters of anti-establishment candidates like Carson and Fiorina — voters who LOVE Cruz and whose candidates are even popular among Trump’s supporters.  

It’s hard to explain why Carson and Fiorina supporters would dislike Trump, or why Bush, Gov. Christie (R-N.J.) and Gov. Kasich (R-Ohio) supporters like Cruz so much more than Trump, but one explanation could be that voters have been insulted by Trump's personal attacks against their favored candidates.

In fact, this explanation holds up when you look at the favorability of Trump among supporters of other candidates before and after Trump began personally insulting them. 

On Sept. 9, the Rolling Stone published Trump’s now infamous comment about Carly Fiorina’s face and Trump declined to apologize for it.  In the New Hampshire PPP poll immediately before this attack, Trump had a +33 favorability rating among Fiorina supporters; in the poll immediately after, Trump had a favorability of -32 among her supporters.  That is a remarkable 65 point swing, and one that wasn’t picked up by the media because it didn’t affect horserace numbers or Trump’s net favorability.  

What this all means is that on the final day or two before the New Hampshire primary, if the supporters of Bush, Christie, Kasich, Paul, Fiorina and Carson choose to defect to one of the three perceived frontrunners (and, remember, over 50 percent of these voters are not particularly committed to their candidates to begin with), they are both more likely to defect to Cruz and more likely to defect to Rubio than to Trump.  And given that those candidates combine for almost half the vote in New Hampshire, the resulting swing could be “Yuge."

Mohler is a software engineer from Arlington, Virginia.